aq Les 1:
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) definitions:
- Armed conflict: A state-based conflict is a contested incompatibility that
concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force
between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state,
results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year
- War: A state-based conflict… which reaches at least 1000 battle-related
deaths in a specific calendar year.
Reflections:
- Casualty threshold is very arbitrary;
- Absolute casualty numbers lead to skewed conflict datasets;
- Is battle-related deaths an appropriate measure? Should we also consider
‘direct’ civilian deaths? Or even ‘indirect’ civilian deaths? (e.g. famine,
disease)
Graphs show that countries with a lower income are more prone to be in an
(armed) conflict. How can we explain this?
- Wealthier states are better able to protect assets-> rebellion has less
chance of success;
- In poor states the opportunity costs for joining a rebellion are lower and
therefore more feasible -> more rebellions and conflicts;
- Poverty causes violence -> scarcity leads to migration and fight over
scarce resources.
Reflections:
- Spurious relationship: the correlation might pick up other features of these
countries;
- Reversed causality: rich countries may be rich because they have not had
conflict.
Conflict trap:
Eruption of violent conflict -> Severe economic and social consequences (eg
lower economic growth) and legacy of conflict -> can cause new eruption of
violent conflict and so on.
,Les 2, Grievances and Conflict (Part I):
Comparing graphs with conflicts around 1990 and conflicts not active around
1990, a graph for number of deaths and the number of conflicts in general.
Intrastate wars.
- Older conflicts, active around 1990, tend to stabilize. Concern: these
conflicts thread on.
- 40% of conflicts have been active for over 30 years.
In the periods 1990-1997 and early 2000s there was an increase in conflict
terminations. This is due to the end of the cold war, because America and SU
stopped putting money into conflict in eg Africa and latin America.
Explaining the said increase in conflict terminations: Changing role of the
international community:
- End of Cold War – ending of proxy wars;
- International justice – prosecution of war crimes;
- Transnational dimension of conflict has changed;
o Supporting conflicts in a certain area also needs consolidation from
neighbouring countries. For example for transporting weapons to a
country etc. This makes financing conflicts significantly more
difficult. (Kimberly process eg)
- New political climate for the UN Security Counsil.
Explaining the increase in conflict from 2017
- ISIS. Emerged in 2004 in Iraq. But then also lots of conflicts in Africa,
Ukraine vs Russia etc.
- More of the conflicts are linked to religion.
- Conflicts have become more international. Think about all the major
powers that play a role in Syria; Russia, US, turkey, Iran etc.
- More internationalized intrastate conflicts: troop support for a certain side
of a conflict. So these conflicts become more complicated.
Grievance theories of conflicts:
Ted Robert Gurr (Why men rebel)
- He defines Relative Deprivation as a “perceived discrepancy between
men’s value expectations and their value capabilities”. Your actual state vs
what you feel you should receive. They feel like they are rightfully entitled;
- Subjective concept.
Mechanisms behind relative deprivation:
- Decremental deprivation: Situation where value expectations remain
constant, while capabilities fail;
- Aspirational deprivation: Value expectations rise, while capabilities stay the
same. For example when a minority group get symbolic extra rights.
- Progressive deprivation: Both value expectations and capabilities rise, but
capabilities soon fall behind.
Underlying mobilization dynamic -> frustration-aggression relationship.
- Mobilizing/violence doesn’t come by economical sources etc, but by
frustration. Frustration does not necessarily lead to violence. It raises the
risk of violence.
- In democracy there are other ways to out frustration, which is one of the
reasons why democracies are seen as less violent.
- Or the state supresses frustration because they are too powerful.
, - People can become accustomed to certain deprivations.
Break
BRING YOUR OWN LAPTOP TO THE EXAM, BUT ITS CLOSE BOOK EXAM
- Links between economic inequality conflict have been extensively
analyzed;
- Political discontent does not depend only on the absolute level of economic
well-being, but also on the distribution of wealth.
- Gini coefficient (Lorenz curve) tells you how unequal economic assets are
divided in a country. Coefficitient= A/ (A+B). Perfect inequality is 1,
perfect equality is 0. South Africa, Brazil and US are some of the most
unequal. South Africa is around 0.63. Scandinavian countries around 0.25.
Is there a relationship between inequality and violent conflict?
- Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2000, 2002) reject economic inequality as
explanatory to violent conflicts
- Lots of others found statistically significant relationships between their
measures of economic inequality and some form of political protest.
Frances Stewart HI theory:
- All these studies focus on individual household inequality, which stewart
labelled ‘vertical inequality’;
- Vertical inequality is usually measured by Gini Coefficient;
- Group or ‘horizontal inequality’ is a different type of inequality.
- Vertical inequality would rank households or individuals. How much does
the top 10% have vs the bottom 10%
- Horizontal inequality: measures inequality between groups.
Horizontal inequalities as a mobilizing factor.
- When cultural/identity differences coincide with economic and political
differences between groups, this can lead to deep resentment which may
result in violent struggle;
- Not simply ‘age-old hatred’ or ‘clash of civilizations’. Most multiethnic
societies are peaceful;
- Conflict more likely where there are large HIs.
- Men merely fight over ethnic differences, but if they do it is over inequal
distribution between ethnic groups.
Group identities
- What groups? Groups with meaning to members, viewed by people
themselves, or others as important aspect of their identity
- Group identities are constructed; boundaries fuzzy, but often perceived as
real and important;
- Examples of salient identities:
o Ethnic/tribe: Africa
o Religious: northern Ireland, middle east, Indonesia, Nigeria;
o Race: south Africa, Malaysia, fiji
o Regional (overlaps with other identities): east timor, Eritrea,
Bangladesh
o Caste (india)
HI s are multidimensional
- Dimensions – those that matter to members- affect well-being, sense of
injustice, actions.
, - Salient dimensions vary according to nature of society/economy, and
position (leaders/followers)
- Important dimensions:
o Politics ( political participation, power, at all levels)
o Economic resources and outcomes (access to assets, employment,
incomes)
o Social, including services (health, education, water and social
networks)
o Cultural status/recognition. Treatment of religion/customs etc.
Educational HI s should be a separate dimension
- May have a direct effect on a country’s conflict of risk
- Indirectly affects socio-economic HI s. For example if a certain group cant
get law degrees, they’ll deliver fewer judges.
- Both directly and indirectly affect political administrative power
distributions.
HI s as mobilising agent
- Combines identity and grievance
- Ethnic or religious boundaries are a powerful source of mobilisation
- Group leaders and followers may have different motivations
o Leaders -> political power (ie political HI s)
o REST FF NAKIJKEN IN DIA
Some findings:
- Probability of conflict rises as socio-economic HI s increase
- Probability, not certainty. Therefore need to explore WHEN and WHY.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) definitions:
- Armed conflict: A state-based conflict is a contested incompatibility that
concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force
between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state,
results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year
- War: A state-based conflict… which reaches at least 1000 battle-related
deaths in a specific calendar year.
Reflections:
- Casualty threshold is very arbitrary;
- Absolute casualty numbers lead to skewed conflict datasets;
- Is battle-related deaths an appropriate measure? Should we also consider
‘direct’ civilian deaths? Or even ‘indirect’ civilian deaths? (e.g. famine,
disease)
Graphs show that countries with a lower income are more prone to be in an
(armed) conflict. How can we explain this?
- Wealthier states are better able to protect assets-> rebellion has less
chance of success;
- In poor states the opportunity costs for joining a rebellion are lower and
therefore more feasible -> more rebellions and conflicts;
- Poverty causes violence -> scarcity leads to migration and fight over
scarce resources.
Reflections:
- Spurious relationship: the correlation might pick up other features of these
countries;
- Reversed causality: rich countries may be rich because they have not had
conflict.
Conflict trap:
Eruption of violent conflict -> Severe economic and social consequences (eg
lower economic growth) and legacy of conflict -> can cause new eruption of
violent conflict and so on.
,Les 2, Grievances and Conflict (Part I):
Comparing graphs with conflicts around 1990 and conflicts not active around
1990, a graph for number of deaths and the number of conflicts in general.
Intrastate wars.
- Older conflicts, active around 1990, tend to stabilize. Concern: these
conflicts thread on.
- 40% of conflicts have been active for over 30 years.
In the periods 1990-1997 and early 2000s there was an increase in conflict
terminations. This is due to the end of the cold war, because America and SU
stopped putting money into conflict in eg Africa and latin America.
Explaining the said increase in conflict terminations: Changing role of the
international community:
- End of Cold War – ending of proxy wars;
- International justice – prosecution of war crimes;
- Transnational dimension of conflict has changed;
o Supporting conflicts in a certain area also needs consolidation from
neighbouring countries. For example for transporting weapons to a
country etc. This makes financing conflicts significantly more
difficult. (Kimberly process eg)
- New political climate for the UN Security Counsil.
Explaining the increase in conflict from 2017
- ISIS. Emerged in 2004 in Iraq. But then also lots of conflicts in Africa,
Ukraine vs Russia etc.
- More of the conflicts are linked to religion.
- Conflicts have become more international. Think about all the major
powers that play a role in Syria; Russia, US, turkey, Iran etc.
- More internationalized intrastate conflicts: troop support for a certain side
of a conflict. So these conflicts become more complicated.
Grievance theories of conflicts:
Ted Robert Gurr (Why men rebel)
- He defines Relative Deprivation as a “perceived discrepancy between
men’s value expectations and their value capabilities”. Your actual state vs
what you feel you should receive. They feel like they are rightfully entitled;
- Subjective concept.
Mechanisms behind relative deprivation:
- Decremental deprivation: Situation where value expectations remain
constant, while capabilities fail;
- Aspirational deprivation: Value expectations rise, while capabilities stay the
same. For example when a minority group get symbolic extra rights.
- Progressive deprivation: Both value expectations and capabilities rise, but
capabilities soon fall behind.
Underlying mobilization dynamic -> frustration-aggression relationship.
- Mobilizing/violence doesn’t come by economical sources etc, but by
frustration. Frustration does not necessarily lead to violence. It raises the
risk of violence.
- In democracy there are other ways to out frustration, which is one of the
reasons why democracies are seen as less violent.
- Or the state supresses frustration because they are too powerful.
, - People can become accustomed to certain deprivations.
Break
BRING YOUR OWN LAPTOP TO THE EXAM, BUT ITS CLOSE BOOK EXAM
- Links between economic inequality conflict have been extensively
analyzed;
- Political discontent does not depend only on the absolute level of economic
well-being, but also on the distribution of wealth.
- Gini coefficient (Lorenz curve) tells you how unequal economic assets are
divided in a country. Coefficitient= A/ (A+B). Perfect inequality is 1,
perfect equality is 0. South Africa, Brazil and US are some of the most
unequal. South Africa is around 0.63. Scandinavian countries around 0.25.
Is there a relationship between inequality and violent conflict?
- Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2000, 2002) reject economic inequality as
explanatory to violent conflicts
- Lots of others found statistically significant relationships between their
measures of economic inequality and some form of political protest.
Frances Stewart HI theory:
- All these studies focus on individual household inequality, which stewart
labelled ‘vertical inequality’;
- Vertical inequality is usually measured by Gini Coefficient;
- Group or ‘horizontal inequality’ is a different type of inequality.
- Vertical inequality would rank households or individuals. How much does
the top 10% have vs the bottom 10%
- Horizontal inequality: measures inequality between groups.
Horizontal inequalities as a mobilizing factor.
- When cultural/identity differences coincide with economic and political
differences between groups, this can lead to deep resentment which may
result in violent struggle;
- Not simply ‘age-old hatred’ or ‘clash of civilizations’. Most multiethnic
societies are peaceful;
- Conflict more likely where there are large HIs.
- Men merely fight over ethnic differences, but if they do it is over inequal
distribution between ethnic groups.
Group identities
- What groups? Groups with meaning to members, viewed by people
themselves, or others as important aspect of their identity
- Group identities are constructed; boundaries fuzzy, but often perceived as
real and important;
- Examples of salient identities:
o Ethnic/tribe: Africa
o Religious: northern Ireland, middle east, Indonesia, Nigeria;
o Race: south Africa, Malaysia, fiji
o Regional (overlaps with other identities): east timor, Eritrea,
Bangladesh
o Caste (india)
HI s are multidimensional
- Dimensions – those that matter to members- affect well-being, sense of
injustice, actions.
, - Salient dimensions vary according to nature of society/economy, and
position (leaders/followers)
- Important dimensions:
o Politics ( political participation, power, at all levels)
o Economic resources and outcomes (access to assets, employment,
incomes)
o Social, including services (health, education, water and social
networks)
o Cultural status/recognition. Treatment of religion/customs etc.
Educational HI s should be a separate dimension
- May have a direct effect on a country’s conflict of risk
- Indirectly affects socio-economic HI s. For example if a certain group cant
get law degrees, they’ll deliver fewer judges.
- Both directly and indirectly affect political administrative power
distributions.
HI s as mobilising agent
- Combines identity and grievance
- Ethnic or religious boundaries are a powerful source of mobilisation
- Group leaders and followers may have different motivations
o Leaders -> political power (ie political HI s)
o REST FF NAKIJKEN IN DIA
Some findings:
- Probability of conflict rises as socio-economic HI s increase
- Probability, not certainty. Therefore need to explore WHEN and WHY.
