Risk Assessment
Lecture Summary 2020
Lecture 1 - Ins and Outs of Risk Assessment
Definition
Risk in Criminal Justice = “uncertain predictions about future behavior, with a change that the
future outcome of the behavior will be harmful or negative” (Kemshall, 1996)
Risk Assessment = probability calculation that a harmful behavior or event will occur, and
involves an assessment about the frequency of the behavior (or event), its likely impact and who
it will affect (Kemshall, 1996)
It is important for us to start building a science of risk assessment by looking at the factors that
are changeable and factors that are not. Because of the serious consequences that occur when
these tests fail, the development has an incredible social significance. Our goal is to be way
better than the 50% change effect. Of course we can never reach 100%, but around 70-80% is
what we like to reach.
Risk Assessment must specify:
- Behavior (violent, sexual offending, youth etc. or just general criminality)
- Potential damage or harm caused by the behavior
- Probability that it will occur and under what circumstances
There is no one size fits all approach or tool. They are usually specified to the type of crime, age
and gender of the reoffender.
Types of Factors in Risk Assessment
We can split the factors of risk assessment into two main categories: risk factors and protective
factors. Risk factors are variables that might increase the likelihood of reoffense, while
protective factors are the opposite, reducing the likelihood of reoffending. It depends on the
person which area is most in need and therefore treatment plans depend on these factors.
1
,Static Factors
Static factors are things like ge, gender, ethnicity, first offense and type of offense. They are not
changeable nor are they treatable and are usually historical (like the age of first conviction of the
living environment of the offender in the past). They provide us with important information, but
they can’t be used in the handling of offenders.
Obviously we can't change or treat the past, however these static factors are important when it
comes to the assessment of reoffending. The earlier someone has committed their first offense,
the more likely they are to reoffend after being released. An abusive family or peer circle can
also tell us a lot about the risk of reoffending. These static factors are used as a pure predictive
power and validity. They require little or non clinical judgement and are not personalized to
psychological circumstances, meaning there is no psychological meaning. It helps us, especially
when it comes to policy making and understanding who is likely to reoffend and who is not.
Even though these factors lack psychological meaning, they have a high predictive validity.
Static-99R Coding Form
The Static-99R is a static risk
assessment tool that is used
for sex offenders world wide.
It is difficult to draw a line
between the different scores,
especially since there is no
official definition. However, the
2
,Static-99R does have a good predictive validity, meaning it usually tells us who is likely to
reoffend and who is not. Nevertheless, this tool lacks something important: Dynamic risk factors.
Dynamic Risk Factors
Dynamic Risk Factors can be seen as the children of risk prediction. We can change them and
we can treat them. Interventions are usually designed to change dynamic risk factors and we
include them because of their “casual” status. Often they are moderated by static risk factors.
The Central Eight Criminogenic Needs
According to Andrew, Bonta and Wormith, there are 8 central criminogenic needs. A
criminogenic need is a variable or factor that directly relates to someone's likelihood to reoffend.
The central 8 tend to be the most important when predicting the reoffense. The first 4 of them
are also referred to as the “Big 4” as they are really the strongest predictors in a general sense
of reoffending. If we are able to change some of them, we have the chance to lower the risk of
reoffending. However, changing these factors is of course not easy. Each need is also related to
a specific treatment target.
1. Antisocial attitudes/orientation
2. Antisocial peers
3. Antisocial personality
4. Antisocial behavior patterns
5. Absence of pro-social leisure/recreation activities
6. Dysfunctional family
7. Employment issues
8. Substance abuse problems
Below is a list of the central eight needs and the according treatment target.
3
, Our dynamic risk factors are also called Criminogenic needs. However, we also have
non-criminogenic needs. These needs are needs of a person that do not directly relate to the
likelihood of reoffending but that could still improve the functioning of the individuals life and
therefore might be part of a broader treatment plan. In the Risk Need Responsivity model they
can be found as well.
Non-criminogenic needs (general recidivism):
- Personal distress
4
Lecture Summary 2020
Lecture 1 - Ins and Outs of Risk Assessment
Definition
Risk in Criminal Justice = “uncertain predictions about future behavior, with a change that the
future outcome of the behavior will be harmful or negative” (Kemshall, 1996)
Risk Assessment = probability calculation that a harmful behavior or event will occur, and
involves an assessment about the frequency of the behavior (or event), its likely impact and who
it will affect (Kemshall, 1996)
It is important for us to start building a science of risk assessment by looking at the factors that
are changeable and factors that are not. Because of the serious consequences that occur when
these tests fail, the development has an incredible social significance. Our goal is to be way
better than the 50% change effect. Of course we can never reach 100%, but around 70-80% is
what we like to reach.
Risk Assessment must specify:
- Behavior (violent, sexual offending, youth etc. or just general criminality)
- Potential damage or harm caused by the behavior
- Probability that it will occur and under what circumstances
There is no one size fits all approach or tool. They are usually specified to the type of crime, age
and gender of the reoffender.
Types of Factors in Risk Assessment
We can split the factors of risk assessment into two main categories: risk factors and protective
factors. Risk factors are variables that might increase the likelihood of reoffense, while
protective factors are the opposite, reducing the likelihood of reoffending. It depends on the
person which area is most in need and therefore treatment plans depend on these factors.
1
,Static Factors
Static factors are things like ge, gender, ethnicity, first offense and type of offense. They are not
changeable nor are they treatable and are usually historical (like the age of first conviction of the
living environment of the offender in the past). They provide us with important information, but
they can’t be used in the handling of offenders.
Obviously we can't change or treat the past, however these static factors are important when it
comes to the assessment of reoffending. The earlier someone has committed their first offense,
the more likely they are to reoffend after being released. An abusive family or peer circle can
also tell us a lot about the risk of reoffending. These static factors are used as a pure predictive
power and validity. They require little or non clinical judgement and are not personalized to
psychological circumstances, meaning there is no psychological meaning. It helps us, especially
when it comes to policy making and understanding who is likely to reoffend and who is not.
Even though these factors lack psychological meaning, they have a high predictive validity.
Static-99R Coding Form
The Static-99R is a static risk
assessment tool that is used
for sex offenders world wide.
It is difficult to draw a line
between the different scores,
especially since there is no
official definition. However, the
2
,Static-99R does have a good predictive validity, meaning it usually tells us who is likely to
reoffend and who is not. Nevertheless, this tool lacks something important: Dynamic risk factors.
Dynamic Risk Factors
Dynamic Risk Factors can be seen as the children of risk prediction. We can change them and
we can treat them. Interventions are usually designed to change dynamic risk factors and we
include them because of their “casual” status. Often they are moderated by static risk factors.
The Central Eight Criminogenic Needs
According to Andrew, Bonta and Wormith, there are 8 central criminogenic needs. A
criminogenic need is a variable or factor that directly relates to someone's likelihood to reoffend.
The central 8 tend to be the most important when predicting the reoffense. The first 4 of them
are also referred to as the “Big 4” as they are really the strongest predictors in a general sense
of reoffending. If we are able to change some of them, we have the chance to lower the risk of
reoffending. However, changing these factors is of course not easy. Each need is also related to
a specific treatment target.
1. Antisocial attitudes/orientation
2. Antisocial peers
3. Antisocial personality
4. Antisocial behavior patterns
5. Absence of pro-social leisure/recreation activities
6. Dysfunctional family
7. Employment issues
8. Substance abuse problems
Below is a list of the central eight needs and the according treatment target.
3
, Our dynamic risk factors are also called Criminogenic needs. However, we also have
non-criminogenic needs. These needs are needs of a person that do not directly relate to the
likelihood of reoffending but that could still improve the functioning of the individuals life and
therefore might be part of a broader treatment plan. In the Risk Need Responsivity model they
can be found as well.
Non-criminogenic needs (general recidivism):
- Personal distress
4
