Terrorism & Counterterrorism: Governing Wicked
Problems
Class 1: Measuring Terrorism & Analytical Frameworks
Research & Policy
> Research: replicable, reliable & transferable
> Policy: Scallable, transferable (both ideally), practical (=must)
How does the world work?
Probable Possible
> Range of chance ‘rules’ all events > There things could happen, but unlikely
> Random occurrence does not exist (or at least > Risk is not being prepared
is very very very rare) > Black Swan events
> provides an ordering of the world > Challenge for security professionals -
> Helps identify risks, threats, & solutions creativity, balance, rationality, likelihoods
> Often we thinks of events, risks, threats, etc in binary terms
> Happens or didn’t/doesn’t happen
> for example, when we think of civil war, a country either is in civil war or it is not
- but how do we identify civil war?
- Measurement = 25+ or 50+ or 1000+ battle-related deaths
- but what is the difference between 24/25 or 26 battle-related deaths?
> In reality there is probability
- a range within which events are occurring prior at risk of occurring
Rational Choice Theory
> A set of helpful assumptions for thinking about & analyzing behaviour
> terrorists or terrorist groups as rational actors
> select tactics, tools, ake choices that maximize their preferred outcome
> choices are made with respect to constraints: resources, time, network, CT security, etc
> helps focus on the probable
> can make calculated conclusions about threats & risks
> think about consequences and blowback
Analytical Tools
1. Wicked Problems Framework
2. Scenario Analysis
3. Statistical Analyses
> “Policy analysis is an applied social science discipline which uses multiple methods of inquiry and
argument to produce and transform policy-relevant information that may be utilised in political
settings to resolve policy problems” (Dunn, 1981)
Wicked Problems Framework
> Wicked = ‘resistance to resolution, rather than as evil” (Schiefloe, 2021)
,> characterized as: ill-dfined, malignant, cannot be solved, problem causers are the ones seeking
solutions, policy responses discount the future irrationality
> Multiple dimensions make a problem wicked: large audience, severity of consequences, complexity,
of causes, political visibility, newness, urgency
Scenario Analysis
> “…intended to inform the organization’s strategic thinking on how it might either thrive and
survive, or wilt and die under each set of scenario conditions, thereby prompting appropriate policy
and planning responses to enable strength and resilience in the face of the set of developed future
scenarios” (Wright et al. 2019)
> synthesise quantitative and qualitative information
> construct multiple scenarios or alternative portraits of the future
> build in a high degree of uncertainty
> balance possible & probable
Descriptive Statistics
> helps
1. identify patterns or trends
2. summarise large amounts of information
3. expand breadth of study
4. foundational for statistical analysis
a. cause & effect
b. ‘on average’
c. snapshot of the world
How to read a Paper with statistical analysis
> Develop basic literacy in statistics & interpreting results tables
> Articles/papers often follow a formula
- Introduction
- Literature Review & Theory
- Sometimes separate sections, sometimes not
- Making the argument building on what we already know
- Hypotheses
- Expectations the theory/argument lead to
- Research Design
- The data used to test hypotheses
- The variables that measure/operationalize the theoretical concepts
- Results (Statistical & Substantive)
- Discussion & Conclusion
Statistical & Substantive Significance
> statistical significance is all about the mathematics
> substantive significance is all about interpretation, meaning and tangible measurement
> goes back to academic & policy research
- something can be statistically significant, but have small substantive value
- a cause & effect relationship can exist that is not actionable by government, societal groups,
NGOs, INGOs, etc
,Class 2: Tools for understanding terrorism & counterterrorism
The rationality of terrorism
Rational Choice Theory
> Influential theory on human decision-making
> selfinterest drives decision making
> cost/benefit analysis weighs available options
> maximisation of personal benefit
> for instance: ‘i want to have good career opportunities when I graduate, so I’m choosing a degree in
tech’
> but als: ‘I care about the environment but I don’t want to get busted by the police so I will leave it to
other to join Extinction Rebellion protests.’
The free-rider problem of collective action
> costs & benefits of collective action are unevenly distributed
> participation carries costs
- time
- opportunity costs (e.g. missed income)
- personal risk (arrest, imprisonment, injury, death)
> yet benefits are freely available, e.g.:
- legislative safeguards for the environment
- voting rights for all
- national self-determination
→ strong tendency to ‘freeride’ on the efforts of other
Bounded rationality & altruistic self-interest
> qualifying Rational Choice Theory
- Bounded rationality
- available information is limited or imperfect
- biases skew perception of reality
- decisionmaking under pressure
- inability to foresee all potential consequences
- even rational decisions can show poor judgement@
- Expanding self-interest
- self-interest can align with group-interests or wellbeing of others (altruism)
- personal benefits may be immaterial (e.g. status, rewards in afterlife)
- even great personal risks may still advance self-interest
Rationality of terrorism
> terrorist organisation often display rational behaviour
- adapting to security measures
- adjusting targeting practices to maintain shock value
- reserving suicide attackers for ‘hard’ targets
- timing attacks to maximise their impact (e.g. during elections)
> but
- terrorism is rarely strategically effective
- utopian goals defy realistic chance of success (e.g. Islamic Caliphate)
> Long-term success unlikely, but:
, - not all terrorist groups fail
- short-term successes can obscure poor longer-term chances
- goal may not be to win but create more favorable conditions for negotiation (Late)
- Weapon of last resort
> Group versus individual motives
- fanaticism may drive individual, groups often more pragmatic (Kydd & Walter)
- fanaticism signals resolve, useful recruiting tool
- In practice, goals are decidedly more worldly (e.g. Hamas)
Rationales for terrorist violence
1 Strategic: achiece (political) goals
> general characteristics strategy of terrorism
- persuade by imposing high costs, demonstrating high resolve (Kydd & Walter)
- Exploit weaknesses (Lake)
- Provoke overreaction
- Violent theatre aimed at multiple audiences
→ terrorism as an indirect approach aimed at generating secondary effects
Strategy Definition
Outbidding Establishing intra-movement supremacy through violence
Spoiling Disrupting peace processes/negotiations
Provocation Eliciting government overreaction/driving moderates into arms extremists
Attrition Hurting opponents while absorbing losses, signalling intent to continue to do so
Intimidation Making opponent (not) do something, controlling a population through fear
2 Organisational: protect/promote group wellbeing
- punish betrayal (e.g. former members)
- retaliate against security forces
- group survival can supersede ideological goals
- group continues even in face of defeat
3 Personal: attain status and personal significance through revenge, sacrifice, etc
> terrorism can be a ‘rational choice’ that offsets the grave personal risks it involves by providing
means for political change, a sense of belonging, and opportunities for self-realisation
Terrorism as means, not nature
> terrorism is a form of warfare, not an intrinsic quality
- adopted when deemed appropriate under circumstances/constraints
- used by state and non-state actors alike
- this realisation is key to determining available countermeasures
Counterterrorism approaches
Counterterrorism & rationality
> CT relies on assumptions of what is being countered
Problems
Class 1: Measuring Terrorism & Analytical Frameworks
Research & Policy
> Research: replicable, reliable & transferable
> Policy: Scallable, transferable (both ideally), practical (=must)
How does the world work?
Probable Possible
> Range of chance ‘rules’ all events > There things could happen, but unlikely
> Random occurrence does not exist (or at least > Risk is not being prepared
is very very very rare) > Black Swan events
> provides an ordering of the world > Challenge for security professionals -
> Helps identify risks, threats, & solutions creativity, balance, rationality, likelihoods
> Often we thinks of events, risks, threats, etc in binary terms
> Happens or didn’t/doesn’t happen
> for example, when we think of civil war, a country either is in civil war or it is not
- but how do we identify civil war?
- Measurement = 25+ or 50+ or 1000+ battle-related deaths
- but what is the difference between 24/25 or 26 battle-related deaths?
> In reality there is probability
- a range within which events are occurring prior at risk of occurring
Rational Choice Theory
> A set of helpful assumptions for thinking about & analyzing behaviour
> terrorists or terrorist groups as rational actors
> select tactics, tools, ake choices that maximize their preferred outcome
> choices are made with respect to constraints: resources, time, network, CT security, etc
> helps focus on the probable
> can make calculated conclusions about threats & risks
> think about consequences and blowback
Analytical Tools
1. Wicked Problems Framework
2. Scenario Analysis
3. Statistical Analyses
> “Policy analysis is an applied social science discipline which uses multiple methods of inquiry and
argument to produce and transform policy-relevant information that may be utilised in political
settings to resolve policy problems” (Dunn, 1981)
Wicked Problems Framework
> Wicked = ‘resistance to resolution, rather than as evil” (Schiefloe, 2021)
,> characterized as: ill-dfined, malignant, cannot be solved, problem causers are the ones seeking
solutions, policy responses discount the future irrationality
> Multiple dimensions make a problem wicked: large audience, severity of consequences, complexity,
of causes, political visibility, newness, urgency
Scenario Analysis
> “…intended to inform the organization’s strategic thinking on how it might either thrive and
survive, or wilt and die under each set of scenario conditions, thereby prompting appropriate policy
and planning responses to enable strength and resilience in the face of the set of developed future
scenarios” (Wright et al. 2019)
> synthesise quantitative and qualitative information
> construct multiple scenarios or alternative portraits of the future
> build in a high degree of uncertainty
> balance possible & probable
Descriptive Statistics
> helps
1. identify patterns or trends
2. summarise large amounts of information
3. expand breadth of study
4. foundational for statistical analysis
a. cause & effect
b. ‘on average’
c. snapshot of the world
How to read a Paper with statistical analysis
> Develop basic literacy in statistics & interpreting results tables
> Articles/papers often follow a formula
- Introduction
- Literature Review & Theory
- Sometimes separate sections, sometimes not
- Making the argument building on what we already know
- Hypotheses
- Expectations the theory/argument lead to
- Research Design
- The data used to test hypotheses
- The variables that measure/operationalize the theoretical concepts
- Results (Statistical & Substantive)
- Discussion & Conclusion
Statistical & Substantive Significance
> statistical significance is all about the mathematics
> substantive significance is all about interpretation, meaning and tangible measurement
> goes back to academic & policy research
- something can be statistically significant, but have small substantive value
- a cause & effect relationship can exist that is not actionable by government, societal groups,
NGOs, INGOs, etc
,Class 2: Tools for understanding terrorism & counterterrorism
The rationality of terrorism
Rational Choice Theory
> Influential theory on human decision-making
> selfinterest drives decision making
> cost/benefit analysis weighs available options
> maximisation of personal benefit
> for instance: ‘i want to have good career opportunities when I graduate, so I’m choosing a degree in
tech’
> but als: ‘I care about the environment but I don’t want to get busted by the police so I will leave it to
other to join Extinction Rebellion protests.’
The free-rider problem of collective action
> costs & benefits of collective action are unevenly distributed
> participation carries costs
- time
- opportunity costs (e.g. missed income)
- personal risk (arrest, imprisonment, injury, death)
> yet benefits are freely available, e.g.:
- legislative safeguards for the environment
- voting rights for all
- national self-determination
→ strong tendency to ‘freeride’ on the efforts of other
Bounded rationality & altruistic self-interest
> qualifying Rational Choice Theory
- Bounded rationality
- available information is limited or imperfect
- biases skew perception of reality
- decisionmaking under pressure
- inability to foresee all potential consequences
- even rational decisions can show poor judgement@
- Expanding self-interest
- self-interest can align with group-interests or wellbeing of others (altruism)
- personal benefits may be immaterial (e.g. status, rewards in afterlife)
- even great personal risks may still advance self-interest
Rationality of terrorism
> terrorist organisation often display rational behaviour
- adapting to security measures
- adjusting targeting practices to maintain shock value
- reserving suicide attackers for ‘hard’ targets
- timing attacks to maximise their impact (e.g. during elections)
> but
- terrorism is rarely strategically effective
- utopian goals defy realistic chance of success (e.g. Islamic Caliphate)
> Long-term success unlikely, but:
, - not all terrorist groups fail
- short-term successes can obscure poor longer-term chances
- goal may not be to win but create more favorable conditions for negotiation (Late)
- Weapon of last resort
> Group versus individual motives
- fanaticism may drive individual, groups often more pragmatic (Kydd & Walter)
- fanaticism signals resolve, useful recruiting tool
- In practice, goals are decidedly more worldly (e.g. Hamas)
Rationales for terrorist violence
1 Strategic: achiece (political) goals
> general characteristics strategy of terrorism
- persuade by imposing high costs, demonstrating high resolve (Kydd & Walter)
- Exploit weaknesses (Lake)
- Provoke overreaction
- Violent theatre aimed at multiple audiences
→ terrorism as an indirect approach aimed at generating secondary effects
Strategy Definition
Outbidding Establishing intra-movement supremacy through violence
Spoiling Disrupting peace processes/negotiations
Provocation Eliciting government overreaction/driving moderates into arms extremists
Attrition Hurting opponents while absorbing losses, signalling intent to continue to do so
Intimidation Making opponent (not) do something, controlling a population through fear
2 Organisational: protect/promote group wellbeing
- punish betrayal (e.g. former members)
- retaliate against security forces
- group survival can supersede ideological goals
- group continues even in face of defeat
3 Personal: attain status and personal significance through revenge, sacrifice, etc
> terrorism can be a ‘rational choice’ that offsets the grave personal risks it involves by providing
means for political change, a sense of belonging, and opportunities for self-realisation
Terrorism as means, not nature
> terrorism is a form of warfare, not an intrinsic quality
- adopted when deemed appropriate under circumstances/constraints
- used by state and non-state actors alike
- this realisation is key to determining available countermeasures
Counterterrorism approaches
Counterterrorism & rationality
> CT relies on assumptions of what is being countered
