C207 QUM2 Data-Driven Decision Making QUM2 Task 2
Decision Tree Analysis passed complete task Western
Governors University
QUM2 Task 2: Decision Tree Analysis
Western Governors
University C207 Instructor Alex
Neely
September 3, 2024
, 2
A. Business Question
Based on competitive market research and guidance from the FDA, would it be
appropriate for MPC to develop a brand-new drug line, modify its current one, or choose not
to make any changes?
B. Relevant Data Values
Probability of Success
Unfavorable Market Favorable Market
New Drug 31% 69%
Changes to Existing Drug Uses 39% 61%
No Changes 23% 77%
Demand
Unfavorable Market Favorable Market
New Drug 1355 4133
Changes to Existing Drug Uses 1911 5577
No Changes 258 657
Payoffs
Unfavorable Market Favorable Market
New Drug $ 880.75 $ 2,686.45
Changes to Existing Drug Uses $ 1,471.47 $ 4,294.29
No Changes $ 224.46 $ 571.59
Profits (per unit)
New Drug 0.65
Changes to Existing Drug Uses 0.77
No Changes 0.87