LEC 16: ACTUARIAL VERSUS CLINICAL
JUDGEMENT QUESTIONS AND
VERIFIED ANSWERS|100%
CORRECT|GRADE A+
Two competing practices for decision making - ANSWER -Actuarial reasoning
-Clinical judgement
Actuarial reasoning - ANSWER originally referred to accounting/insurance practices, but is now often
used generically for decision making based on formal (especially statistical) models
Clinical judgement - ANSWER originally referred to expert judgements by clinicians
(doctors/psychologists), but is now often used generically for judgement based on intuition or personal
expertise
Formal Decision Model: What is an actuarial model? - ANSWER Basic idea:
-start with a set of outcomes and treatments/covariates
-construct a mathematical framework linking treatments/covariates to outcomes
-estimate model parameters based on data
-use estimated model to make predictions for new cases
-make decisions based on predicted outcomes
key elements to actuarial model: - ANSWER systematic, data-driven, explicit about assumptions, precise
in making predictions, "honest" (in the sense of error assessment)
ex of a actuarial reasoning: Linear models - ANSWER -A special (but important) case of a---: models of
the form
Y = Bo + B1X1 + B2X2 + ..... + BnXn (standard regression model)
-Performance: when placed against expert predictions, linear models are almost always more accurate
JUDGEMENT QUESTIONS AND
VERIFIED ANSWERS|100%
CORRECT|GRADE A+
Two competing practices for decision making - ANSWER -Actuarial reasoning
-Clinical judgement
Actuarial reasoning - ANSWER originally referred to accounting/insurance practices, but is now often
used generically for decision making based on formal (especially statistical) models
Clinical judgement - ANSWER originally referred to expert judgements by clinicians
(doctors/psychologists), but is now often used generically for judgement based on intuition or personal
expertise
Formal Decision Model: What is an actuarial model? - ANSWER Basic idea:
-start with a set of outcomes and treatments/covariates
-construct a mathematical framework linking treatments/covariates to outcomes
-estimate model parameters based on data
-use estimated model to make predictions for new cases
-make decisions based on predicted outcomes
key elements to actuarial model: - ANSWER systematic, data-driven, explicit about assumptions, precise
in making predictions, "honest" (in the sense of error assessment)
ex of a actuarial reasoning: Linear models - ANSWER -A special (but important) case of a---: models of
the form
Y = Bo + B1X1 + B2X2 + ..... + BnXn (standard regression model)
-Performance: when placed against expert predictions, linear models are almost always more accurate
