Congressional elections X Presidential elections fit for purpose?
Incumbency advantage
Obama – John Wolfe – 117,000, 1.7%
Trump – Bill Weld – 2.35%
Name recognition – Susan Collins 2002 58%, 2014 68%
Pork barrelling – Big Dig Boston $4bn
2020 Senate
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
Trump 1 term
AOC Joseph Crawley
Lobbying
Congressional
o Joe Manchin $4.8m 2021, $300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
o Average = $1.16m fundraising/year
Executive
o NRA spent $16m 2020 - $4m supporting Trump, $12m opposing Biden
Use of lobbying money ran successful campaigns for Pete Buttigieg & Amy Klobuchar
Campaign finance
o Buckley v Valeo + Citizens United, money essential for free speech
The structure
Congressional (midterms)
o Seen as referendum on presidency
GW Bush losing houses, 37% approval
Obama losing Senate 2014
Executive
o Campaign is too long
2015, Ted Cruz announced candidacy when Obama had just under 2 years
Length of campaign seen as a good test
Average Congressional approval 25%
DNC scheduled 12 debates from June 2019 to March 2020
When the
Incumbency advantage
Obama – John Wolfe – 117,000, 1.7%
Trump – Bill Weld – 2.35%
Name recognition – Susan Collins 2002 58%, 2014 68%
Pork barrelling – Big Dig Boston $4bn
2020 Senate
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
Trump 1 term
AOC Joseph Crawley
Lobbying
Congressional
o Joe Manchin $4.8m 2021, $300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
o Average = $1.16m fundraising/year
Executive
o NRA spent $16m 2020 - $4m supporting Trump, $12m opposing Biden
Use of lobbying money ran successful campaigns for Pete Buttigieg & Amy Klobuchar
Campaign finance
o Buckley v Valeo + Citizens United, money essential for free speech
The structure
Congressional (midterms)
o Seen as referendum on presidency
GW Bush losing houses, 37% approval
Obama losing Senate 2014
Executive
o Campaign is too long
2015, Ted Cruz announced candidacy when Obama had just under 2 years
Length of campaign seen as a good test
Average Congressional approval 25%
DNC scheduled 12 debates from June 2019 to March 2020
When the