EU lecture 1: The EU at a critical juncture
Russia’s war in Ukraine: impact on the EU
1. EU's Image as an Effective External Relations Actor:
● Before the Conflict: Before the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the
subsequent war in Eastern Ukraine, the European Union was often perceived
as a key international actor that could use its economic and diplomatic
influence to stabilize its neighborhood and promote its values.
● After the Conflict: Russia's actions directly challenged this perception. The
EU's attempts to broker peace and influence the situation on the ground faced
various challenges. As Chaban and Elgstrom (2022) suggest, this called into
question the EU's capacity to manage regional crises, particularly on its
eastern borders. The EU's inability to prevent or resolve the situation
highlighted its limitations in dealing with aggressive actions from a major
power like Russia.
2. Return of Power Politics and its Influence on EU's Security Policy:
● Power Politics: Traditionally, power politics refers to international relations
where national interests and the use of military power are prioritized over
international norms or ethical considerations. In the post-Cold War era, many
believed that the world was moving away from power politics, with
international institutions and collaborative diplomacy becoming more
prominent.
● Shift in Perception: The aggressive actions by Russia in Ukraine signaled a
reassertion of power politics. It was a stark reminder that military force and
territorial ambitions could still reshape the geopolitical landscape, even in the
21st century.
● Impact on EU's Security Policy: Recognizing this shift, the EU had to
reconsider its security policy. The European Union, traditionally dependent on
soft power (economic influence, diplomacy, and promoting values) and the
security umbrella of NATO, had to reassess its own defense and security
postures. This meant considering:
● Greater Defense Integration: Pushes for more robust European defense
capabilities and perhaps deeper defense collaboration among EU
member states.
● Enhanced Diplomacy with Key Allies: Strengthening ties with NATO
and the United States to ensure a cohesive response to potential threats.
● Diversification of Energy Sources: One of the EU's vulnerabilities was
its dependence on Russian gas. The conflict accentuated the need for
the EU to diversify its energy sources to reduce this dependency.
What is a critical juncture?
The term "critical juncture" in political science and history refers to a pivotal moment when
significant changes can occur due to events, decisions, or conditions. The changes that arise
, from a critical juncture can have long-lasting impacts and set a new trajectory in a country's
or institution's evolution.
1. Capoccia and Kelemen (2007): They describe it as a relatively short timeframe in
which key decisions are taken that set a distinct, often long-term, path. Once this path
is set, it can be challenging to revert to the previous course.
2. Drezner (2020): Drezner indicates that a critical juncture is a transformative moment
when foundational elements like power dynamics, interests, or the social perceptions
of entities undergo significant changes. This transformation can be brought on by
various factors, including external shocks.
3. Ikenberry (2000): Emphasizes that such transformative moments often come after
significant events like great power wars, which shift the balance of power on a global
or regional scale.
Is the EU at a critical juncture?
1. Rapid Change and New Relations: The European Union is indeed facing several
challenges and changes, from the economic pressures of the post-COVID world to
geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine situation. These events are testing the
EU's unity, resilience, and ability to adapt.
2. EU's "Actorness" with Respect to Russia: The term "actorness" refers to the ability
of an entity (like the EU) to act cohesively and effectively on the international stage.
The confrontation with Russia has both enabled and constrained the EU's actorness:
● Enabled: It has pushed the EU to reassess its defense, energy, and diplomatic
policies and to act with more cohesion in some areas.
● Constrained: The diverse interests of EU member states sometimes hinder a
unified stance, especially when dealing with a significant power like Russia.
3. EU, Hard Power, and Network Power: While the EU primarily exerts influence
through economic power and diplomacy, the US, with its formidable hard power
(military strength) and network power (alliances, international institutions), remains a
crucial ally and counterbalance, especially in the face of challenges posed by entities
like Russia.
The current period: the return to war
1. "Tectonic Shift" (Koenig 2022): The term "tectonic shift" typically refers to a
massive, foundational change in the landscape of a particular field or context. In this
case, Koenig suggests that the European security and political landscape is
undergoing such a change, likely in response to increased threats and challenges, such
as Russia's aggressive actions.
2. Change of the Times & A 'Zeitenwende': "Zeitenwende" is a German term that can
be translated as "turning point in time" or "change of an era." Both this term and
"change of the times" indicate that Europe is at a pivotal moment in its history. This
might be compared to previous significant moments like the end of the Cold War or
the initiation of the European project after World War II.
3. A New Level of Ambition: This could refer to the EU and its member states aspiring
to achieve more in terms of defense, diplomacy, and overall influence in global
Russia’s war in Ukraine: impact on the EU
1. EU's Image as an Effective External Relations Actor:
● Before the Conflict: Before the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the
subsequent war in Eastern Ukraine, the European Union was often perceived
as a key international actor that could use its economic and diplomatic
influence to stabilize its neighborhood and promote its values.
● After the Conflict: Russia's actions directly challenged this perception. The
EU's attempts to broker peace and influence the situation on the ground faced
various challenges. As Chaban and Elgstrom (2022) suggest, this called into
question the EU's capacity to manage regional crises, particularly on its
eastern borders. The EU's inability to prevent or resolve the situation
highlighted its limitations in dealing with aggressive actions from a major
power like Russia.
2. Return of Power Politics and its Influence on EU's Security Policy:
● Power Politics: Traditionally, power politics refers to international relations
where national interests and the use of military power are prioritized over
international norms or ethical considerations. In the post-Cold War era, many
believed that the world was moving away from power politics, with
international institutions and collaborative diplomacy becoming more
prominent.
● Shift in Perception: The aggressive actions by Russia in Ukraine signaled a
reassertion of power politics. It was a stark reminder that military force and
territorial ambitions could still reshape the geopolitical landscape, even in the
21st century.
● Impact on EU's Security Policy: Recognizing this shift, the EU had to
reconsider its security policy. The European Union, traditionally dependent on
soft power (economic influence, diplomacy, and promoting values) and the
security umbrella of NATO, had to reassess its own defense and security
postures. This meant considering:
● Greater Defense Integration: Pushes for more robust European defense
capabilities and perhaps deeper defense collaboration among EU
member states.
● Enhanced Diplomacy with Key Allies: Strengthening ties with NATO
and the United States to ensure a cohesive response to potential threats.
● Diversification of Energy Sources: One of the EU's vulnerabilities was
its dependence on Russian gas. The conflict accentuated the need for
the EU to diversify its energy sources to reduce this dependency.
What is a critical juncture?
The term "critical juncture" in political science and history refers to a pivotal moment when
significant changes can occur due to events, decisions, or conditions. The changes that arise
, from a critical juncture can have long-lasting impacts and set a new trajectory in a country's
or institution's evolution.
1. Capoccia and Kelemen (2007): They describe it as a relatively short timeframe in
which key decisions are taken that set a distinct, often long-term, path. Once this path
is set, it can be challenging to revert to the previous course.
2. Drezner (2020): Drezner indicates that a critical juncture is a transformative moment
when foundational elements like power dynamics, interests, or the social perceptions
of entities undergo significant changes. This transformation can be brought on by
various factors, including external shocks.
3. Ikenberry (2000): Emphasizes that such transformative moments often come after
significant events like great power wars, which shift the balance of power on a global
or regional scale.
Is the EU at a critical juncture?
1. Rapid Change and New Relations: The European Union is indeed facing several
challenges and changes, from the economic pressures of the post-COVID world to
geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine situation. These events are testing the
EU's unity, resilience, and ability to adapt.
2. EU's "Actorness" with Respect to Russia: The term "actorness" refers to the ability
of an entity (like the EU) to act cohesively and effectively on the international stage.
The confrontation with Russia has both enabled and constrained the EU's actorness:
● Enabled: It has pushed the EU to reassess its defense, energy, and diplomatic
policies and to act with more cohesion in some areas.
● Constrained: The diverse interests of EU member states sometimes hinder a
unified stance, especially when dealing with a significant power like Russia.
3. EU, Hard Power, and Network Power: While the EU primarily exerts influence
through economic power and diplomacy, the US, with its formidable hard power
(military strength) and network power (alliances, international institutions), remains a
crucial ally and counterbalance, especially in the face of challenges posed by entities
like Russia.
The current period: the return to war
1. "Tectonic Shift" (Koenig 2022): The term "tectonic shift" typically refers to a
massive, foundational change in the landscape of a particular field or context. In this
case, Koenig suggests that the European security and political landscape is
undergoing such a change, likely in response to increased threats and challenges, such
as Russia's aggressive actions.
2. Change of the Times & A 'Zeitenwende': "Zeitenwende" is a German term that can
be translated as "turning point in time" or "change of an era." Both this term and
"change of the times" indicate that Europe is at a pivotal moment in its history. This
might be compared to previous significant moments like the end of the Cold War or
the initiation of the European project after World War II.
3. A New Level of Ambition: This could refer to the EU and its member states aspiring
to achieve more in terms of defense, diplomacy, and overall influence in global
