Lecture 1 – 11/04 – Introducti on and Risk Society
Defining risk
Spiegelhalter (2017): Undesirable things that might happen
Gigerenzer (2003): The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing (negative) events
Risk = Probability x Severity
The likelihood of an unwanted event x the magnitude of the consequences
Everyday risks
- Environmental risks
- Health risks
- Hazardous activities
- Consumer risks
Risk vs. hazard
There is a distinction between these two concepts: possibility vs. probability.
Example glorix bleach: dangerous side of drinking is a hazard. You can put it in the fridge or
on the table. But once you take a sip, you take a hazard into action it becomes a risk.
Hazard -> action (exposure) -> risk. As long as you don’t take any action, then it is a hazard.
Risk vs. uncertainty
Example corona pandemic: at a certain point we were thinking about the effectiveness of face
masks. People don’t like working with uncertainty, especially if you need to make guidelines
which people adhere to. Donald Rumsfeld (2002): There are known knowns (= risk). These
are the things that we know that we know. There are known unknowns (= uncertainty). That
is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown
unknowns (= ignorance). These are things that we do not know we don’t know. We can
replace this bold terms by risks and uncertainty.
Levels of uncertainty:
- Things we can’t know (first-order, or aleatory uncertainty)
- Thins we don’t know (second-order, or epistemic uncertainty)
,Risk communication
The interactive process of exchange of knowledge, perceptions, attitude, and opinions related
to risks between individuals, groups, and institutions. Who communicates what in what form
to whom to what effect.
Course structure
- Lecture 1: risk and risk society (who and what)
- Lecture 2 & 3: psychology of risks: cognitive and emotional aspects (what and to what
effect)
- Lecture 4: strategic risk communication (who, what, and to whom)
- Lecture 5 & 6: risk messages: fundamental aspects and advanced concepts (in what
form, and to what effect)
- Lecture 7: uncertainty and trust (who, what, to whom, and to what effect)
- Lecture 8: dealing with individual differences (to whom)
- Lecture 9: implications of risk communication (who, to whom, and to what effect)
Risk domains
- Health risks
- Hazardous services and products
- Consumer risks
- Environmental risks
Risk society - Ulrich beck & Antony Giddens
Sociological notion describing the societal context in which we currently live. It is the
management of (all) risks citizens may run. Risk are omnipresent. Today we are preoccupied
with risks a lot, think about the way we treat or children. We are concerned with who may
harm our children. And then we come up with a system to manage those risks in order to
create a safe society. Safety is on our minds a lot. That is why they say we are in a risk
society.
We live in a modern society, that modernisation came in two waves:
- 1st age: we were concerned with our welfare state. After WOII the babyboom
generation worked hard and our welfare grew exponentially. We tried to prevent
scarcity from happening.
, - 2nd age: the welfare that we bought up brought us prosperity and progress, but it
worried us that the system that we created can go against us. The way we live is also
becoming risky. The mobile phone enabled us to be connected all the time but now we
worry about it harming our social interactions. Another example is the way we
consume our food, obesities is a common health problem nowadays.
Risks are socially constructed. We are afraid of certain things and think of risks in certain
terms. There are also things we don’t worry about but that are pretty risky. Communication
contributes to our understandings of risks.
Historical sketch
1st age of modernization: 2nd age of modernization:
industrial modernity reflexive modernity of risk society
Production of material wealth/goods Production of safety/knowledge
The avoidance of scarcity The avoidance of risk
Control over nature The preservation of nature
Risks are temporarily and physically bound Dynamic and enduring global risks
Risks are direct, visible, and fixable Risks are mediated, invisible, and
irreversible
Started with enlightenment Started at the end of the cold war
VUCA world
- Volatility: it changes the whole time
- Uncertainty: we don’t know everything
- Complexity: there is a lot of factors
- Ambiguity: there are multiple interpretations of the problem
6 parameters of risk society
, 1st parameter - Omnipresence of risks: the news
Risks are everywhere.
2nd parameter - There are different understandings of ‘risk’
Fatalistic pre-modernity: no risk awareness
1st age of modernity: actual risk
2nd age of modernity: subjective perception of risks, intersubjective communication about
risks, social experience of living in a risk society.
The idea of 1st to 2nd age of mode
In the 1st age we were occupied with natural risks. In the 2nd age we found out that we are
afraid of man made systems.
Large gap between actual risks & perceived risks
3rd parameter – the proliferation of contested risk definitions
There is much debate about the risks we run:
- The nature of the risk: what is at risk?
- Causes/attributions
- Consequences
- Size of the risks
- Risk management practices
This makes risks communication complicated.
4th parameter – the reflexive orientation towards risk
According to Giddens (1990) reflexivity refers to the constant appropriation of new
knowledge as the basis for social organization and self-identity. It can be described as a
Defining risk
Spiegelhalter (2017): Undesirable things that might happen
Gigerenzer (2003): The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing (negative) events
Risk = Probability x Severity
The likelihood of an unwanted event x the magnitude of the consequences
Everyday risks
- Environmental risks
- Health risks
- Hazardous activities
- Consumer risks
Risk vs. hazard
There is a distinction between these two concepts: possibility vs. probability.
Example glorix bleach: dangerous side of drinking is a hazard. You can put it in the fridge or
on the table. But once you take a sip, you take a hazard into action it becomes a risk.
Hazard -> action (exposure) -> risk. As long as you don’t take any action, then it is a hazard.
Risk vs. uncertainty
Example corona pandemic: at a certain point we were thinking about the effectiveness of face
masks. People don’t like working with uncertainty, especially if you need to make guidelines
which people adhere to. Donald Rumsfeld (2002): There are known knowns (= risk). These
are the things that we know that we know. There are known unknowns (= uncertainty). That
is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown
unknowns (= ignorance). These are things that we do not know we don’t know. We can
replace this bold terms by risks and uncertainty.
Levels of uncertainty:
- Things we can’t know (first-order, or aleatory uncertainty)
- Thins we don’t know (second-order, or epistemic uncertainty)
,Risk communication
The interactive process of exchange of knowledge, perceptions, attitude, and opinions related
to risks between individuals, groups, and institutions. Who communicates what in what form
to whom to what effect.
Course structure
- Lecture 1: risk and risk society (who and what)
- Lecture 2 & 3: psychology of risks: cognitive and emotional aspects (what and to what
effect)
- Lecture 4: strategic risk communication (who, what, and to whom)
- Lecture 5 & 6: risk messages: fundamental aspects and advanced concepts (in what
form, and to what effect)
- Lecture 7: uncertainty and trust (who, what, to whom, and to what effect)
- Lecture 8: dealing with individual differences (to whom)
- Lecture 9: implications of risk communication (who, to whom, and to what effect)
Risk domains
- Health risks
- Hazardous services and products
- Consumer risks
- Environmental risks
Risk society - Ulrich beck & Antony Giddens
Sociological notion describing the societal context in which we currently live. It is the
management of (all) risks citizens may run. Risk are omnipresent. Today we are preoccupied
with risks a lot, think about the way we treat or children. We are concerned with who may
harm our children. And then we come up with a system to manage those risks in order to
create a safe society. Safety is on our minds a lot. That is why they say we are in a risk
society.
We live in a modern society, that modernisation came in two waves:
- 1st age: we were concerned with our welfare state. After WOII the babyboom
generation worked hard and our welfare grew exponentially. We tried to prevent
scarcity from happening.
, - 2nd age: the welfare that we bought up brought us prosperity and progress, but it
worried us that the system that we created can go against us. The way we live is also
becoming risky. The mobile phone enabled us to be connected all the time but now we
worry about it harming our social interactions. Another example is the way we
consume our food, obesities is a common health problem nowadays.
Risks are socially constructed. We are afraid of certain things and think of risks in certain
terms. There are also things we don’t worry about but that are pretty risky. Communication
contributes to our understandings of risks.
Historical sketch
1st age of modernization: 2nd age of modernization:
industrial modernity reflexive modernity of risk society
Production of material wealth/goods Production of safety/knowledge
The avoidance of scarcity The avoidance of risk
Control over nature The preservation of nature
Risks are temporarily and physically bound Dynamic and enduring global risks
Risks are direct, visible, and fixable Risks are mediated, invisible, and
irreversible
Started with enlightenment Started at the end of the cold war
VUCA world
- Volatility: it changes the whole time
- Uncertainty: we don’t know everything
- Complexity: there is a lot of factors
- Ambiguity: there are multiple interpretations of the problem
6 parameters of risk society
, 1st parameter - Omnipresence of risks: the news
Risks are everywhere.
2nd parameter - There are different understandings of ‘risk’
Fatalistic pre-modernity: no risk awareness
1st age of modernity: actual risk
2nd age of modernity: subjective perception of risks, intersubjective communication about
risks, social experience of living in a risk society.
The idea of 1st to 2nd age of mode
In the 1st age we were occupied with natural risks. In the 2nd age we found out that we are
afraid of man made systems.
Large gap between actual risks & perceived risks
3rd parameter – the proliferation of contested risk definitions
There is much debate about the risks we run:
- The nature of the risk: what is at risk?
- Causes/attributions
- Consequences
- Size of the risks
- Risk management practices
This makes risks communication complicated.
4th parameter – the reflexive orientation towards risk
According to Giddens (1990) reflexivity refers to the constant appropriation of new
knowledge as the basis for social organization and self-identity. It can be described as a
