Causes and consequences of Climate Change
Lecture 1: Introduction to Causes and Consequences of Environmental Change
Objectives:
Linking the different components of socio ecological systems
Capturing the link between society, economics and environmental processes
Characterising the type of relationships among these elements by using system
thinking concepts
Judging the relevance of indicators used to describe the systems
Reflection on concept around social sciences, e.g., equity, responsibility
Demonstrate a capacity in collaborating in an interdisciplinary environment
Develop skills in handling databases, presenting information in a synthetic and well
framed way, writing in an efficient way
Major changes in the Earth system in the Holocene - Rockstrom et al., 2009
Planetary boundaries: a safe and just space for humanity
Definition of indicators for safe conditions for the Earth system:
● Climate change
○ Atmospheric CO2 concentration
■ Proposed boundary 350 ppm
■ Current status 387
○ Change in radiative forcing
■ Proposed boundary 1 W/m^2
■ Current status 1.5
● Rate of Biodiversity loss
○ Extinction rate
■ Proposed boundary 10 species per million species per year
■ Current status >100 species per million species per year
● Nitrogen cycle
○ Amount of N2 removed from the atmosphere for human use
■ Proposed boundary 35 millions of tonnes/year
■ Current status 121 millions of tonnes/year
The concept of planetary boundaries is the scientific revolution of the last decades
● Quote door: Cedric vilani (Nobel prize mathematics)
Doughnut framework: ecological and social dimensions combined
Two concentric radar charts depicting the two boundaries—social and ecological:
● 9 ecological dimensions
● 12 social dimensions Together encompass human wellbeing
● GDP course: In the doughnut economy model, Kate defines 2 boundaries. The outer
boundary represents the ecological ceiling of planetary boundaries and the inner
boundary represents social foundation for human wellbeing.
,● Beyond the boundary are : Climate Change, Biodiversity loss, Land conversion adn
Nitrogen & phosphorus loading
● Boundary not quantified are : air and chemical pollution
,What are the 9 planetary boundaries?
1. Climate change - at risk
2. novel entities - no global quantification
3. stratospheric ozone depletion
4. Atmospheric aerosol loading - no global quantification
5. Ocean acidification
6. Biogeochemical flows (N+P) -excessed threshold
7. Freshwater use
8. Land-system change - at risk
9. Biosphere integrity (genetic and functional diversity) - excessed threshold
Human-environment interaction
Triple bottom line : rode pijl is ‘ weak sustainability’ (small intersection where exchange
between PPP possible, but most of the PPP past is out) and ‘ strong sustainability’ (operate
within the boundaries of environment, economy is limited in what is possible in the society
and society is limited in what is possible within the environment)
, Weak sustainability Strong sustainability
What is meant with the triple bottom line?
● It is the intersection between Prosperity (economy), People (society) and Planet
(environment) ⇒ weak sustainability, we need to operate withing environmental
boundaries
Adopting a socio-ecological system perspective to address the Earth System sustainability
Social- Ecological System
Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs):
● Model of dynamic systems in a holistic manner
● Use variables (i.e., factors, issues, processes) influence one another
● Use for uncovering system’s underlying feedback structures
● Identifying leverage interventions
Mandatory Reading
Six transformations to achieve the sustainable development goals – Sachs et al. 2019
Six SDG transformations as modular building blocks of SDG achievement
1. Education, gender and inequality
2. Health, well-being and demography
3. Energy decarbonization and sustainable industry
Lecture 1: Introduction to Causes and Consequences of Environmental Change
Objectives:
Linking the different components of socio ecological systems
Capturing the link between society, economics and environmental processes
Characterising the type of relationships among these elements by using system
thinking concepts
Judging the relevance of indicators used to describe the systems
Reflection on concept around social sciences, e.g., equity, responsibility
Demonstrate a capacity in collaborating in an interdisciplinary environment
Develop skills in handling databases, presenting information in a synthetic and well
framed way, writing in an efficient way
Major changes in the Earth system in the Holocene - Rockstrom et al., 2009
Planetary boundaries: a safe and just space for humanity
Definition of indicators for safe conditions for the Earth system:
● Climate change
○ Atmospheric CO2 concentration
■ Proposed boundary 350 ppm
■ Current status 387
○ Change in radiative forcing
■ Proposed boundary 1 W/m^2
■ Current status 1.5
● Rate of Biodiversity loss
○ Extinction rate
■ Proposed boundary 10 species per million species per year
■ Current status >100 species per million species per year
● Nitrogen cycle
○ Amount of N2 removed from the atmosphere for human use
■ Proposed boundary 35 millions of tonnes/year
■ Current status 121 millions of tonnes/year
The concept of planetary boundaries is the scientific revolution of the last decades
● Quote door: Cedric vilani (Nobel prize mathematics)
Doughnut framework: ecological and social dimensions combined
Two concentric radar charts depicting the two boundaries—social and ecological:
● 9 ecological dimensions
● 12 social dimensions Together encompass human wellbeing
● GDP course: In the doughnut economy model, Kate defines 2 boundaries. The outer
boundary represents the ecological ceiling of planetary boundaries and the inner
boundary represents social foundation for human wellbeing.
,● Beyond the boundary are : Climate Change, Biodiversity loss, Land conversion adn
Nitrogen & phosphorus loading
● Boundary not quantified are : air and chemical pollution
,What are the 9 planetary boundaries?
1. Climate change - at risk
2. novel entities - no global quantification
3. stratospheric ozone depletion
4. Atmospheric aerosol loading - no global quantification
5. Ocean acidification
6. Biogeochemical flows (N+P) -excessed threshold
7. Freshwater use
8. Land-system change - at risk
9. Biosphere integrity (genetic and functional diversity) - excessed threshold
Human-environment interaction
Triple bottom line : rode pijl is ‘ weak sustainability’ (small intersection where exchange
between PPP possible, but most of the PPP past is out) and ‘ strong sustainability’ (operate
within the boundaries of environment, economy is limited in what is possible in the society
and society is limited in what is possible within the environment)
, Weak sustainability Strong sustainability
What is meant with the triple bottom line?
● It is the intersection between Prosperity (economy), People (society) and Planet
(environment) ⇒ weak sustainability, we need to operate withing environmental
boundaries
Adopting a socio-ecological system perspective to address the Earth System sustainability
Social- Ecological System
Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs):
● Model of dynamic systems in a holistic manner
● Use variables (i.e., factors, issues, processes) influence one another
● Use for uncovering system’s underlying feedback structures
● Identifying leverage interventions
Mandatory Reading
Six transformations to achieve the sustainable development goals – Sachs et al. 2019
Six SDG transformations as modular building blocks of SDG achievement
1. Education, gender and inequality
2. Health, well-being and demography
3. Energy decarbonization and sustainable industry
