Week 1- lecture 2
Demographic transition
Zelinsky- Hypothesis of
the mobility transition.
Claim: modernization of societies affects patterns of mobility.
Hypothesis: patterned regularities in the growth of personal
mobility, comprising an essential component of the
modernization process.
Most important statements:
1. Transition from sessile condition of limited mobility
toward higher rates due to modernization.
2. Parallel to the demographic transition.
3. Irreversible process.
Phases:
1. Pre-modern traditional society.
2. Early transitional society.
3. Late transitional society.
4. Advanced society.
5. Future super advanced society.
Criticism:
- Not included; urban-rural and rural-
rural, seasonal/temporary/labor and
local migration.
- Push and pull factors regarding
economy.
- Family, culture or economic
reasons.
- Supported by censuses. Ravensteins 11 laws:
1. The majority of migrants travel only a short
Inspired by: distance.
- Demographic transition model 2. Migration proceeds step by step.
- Ravensteins 11 laws of migration 3. Migrants going long distances generally go to
- Spatial differentiation one of the great centers of commerce or industry.
- Economic optimalization 4. Each current of migration produces a
compensating counter-current.
5. The natives of towns are less migratory than
those of rural areas.
6. Females are more migratory than males within
their country of birth, but males more frequently
venture beyond.
7. Most migrants are adults-families rarely migrate
out of their country of birth.
8. Large towns grow more by migration than by
natural increase.
9. Migration increases in volume as industries and
commerce develop and transport improve.
10. The major direction of migration is from
agricultural areas to centers of industry and
commerce. 11. The major causes of migration are
1 economic.
, 1. Paleomigrants
Ancient humans were very mobile, but were they migrants? According to UN definition;
yes. A person moved across international border away from the habitual place of resistance.
2. Global migrations (16th-19th century)
Lucassen: cross-community migration.
did include seasonal + labor migration.
Conclusion:
Absolute migration: increased exponentially.
Relative migration: 50% increase after IR, less than
Zelinsky predicted.
Migrations to cities underestimated because of the
exclusion of temporary migration.
10% of in-migrants stay in the cities.
3. Preindustrial migration systems (1800)
Migration linked to demographic regimes and family formation systems.
Temporary migration systems- from mountains to Paris.
North Sea migration system- German workers migrate.
European system- young people in north-west Europe participated in life-cycle service
(work in another household to earn money) because they married later than eastern Europe
regional migrants. (this within country migration also omitted by Lucassen).
4. Modern mobility
a. Industrialization and migration
Hochstadt: economic crisis drop in migration. Industrial work became more
rationalized/specialized, temporary work/migration stopped (peasant-workers).
Rates of mobility aren’t a shift toward modern mobility society, but dependent on the
circumstances.
b. Recent trends
Composition of migrants changed (more from
Global South). More migrants because bigger
population. There is no mechanical effect of
modernity.
Week 2- lecture 1 en 2
Types of migration:
- Internal within country
- Global beyond border
2
, - Forced refugee (violence), natural disaster, development projects.
- Voluntary economic
Refugee- forced to flee its country, fear of persecutions, can't return home.
Internally displaced person- flees home, but stays within the country (not protected by
international law).
Stateless person- not a citizen of any country.
1951 Geneva convention- refugees and their rights.
Approach Greece migrants: refugee camps, local & international volunteers.
Reasons refugee crisis: new smuggling routes, conflict in Syria.
European Union: relocate 120.000 migrants.
EU-Turkey deal: refugees could choose to stay and seek asylum or deportation to Turkey.
Short term: phase emergency, necessary conditions to survive.
Long term: phase integration, integration (also labor market).
Other considerations:
- Economic contribution regarding demographic/pension crisis.
- Socio-cultural diversity is culturally enriching
- Social tension polarization, fractionalization
- Others historical background, attitudes, norms and values, education, social
capital, social and economic conditions, refugees’ expectations and aspirations, national and
local politics, media discourse.
#refugeeswelcome UNHCR assistance to refugees & asylum seekers through #ESTIA
Office of displaced designers.
Refugees and the labor market: much lower employment rate compared to other migrants. 40%
refugees low-educated, language training is crucial.
Heath. A. and L. Richards (2019), “How do Europeans differ in their attitudes to immigration? :
Findings from the European Social Survey 2002/03 - 2016/17”
Nordic countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland) are more favourable to immigration than eastern
European countries (Czech, Hungary). High-skilled migrants are preferred over less-skilled
migrants. High internal polarization within western and northern Europe along educational and age
lines. 2003-2016, European attitudes were on average quite stable, but Europe became less united.
- Since 2002 more inward migration, % migrants of the total population has grown.
- Europe became slightly more positive about the benefits of immigration.
- Attitudes regarding the number of migrants stayed the same. Increasing divergence between
European countries, some more favourable, some less favourable.
- Majority of countries became more negative about government policy.
- Western countries: large number of migrants, focus on work skills (west European)
Countries with less immigration: focus on religious background (east European). Nordic
cluster: low importance to both criteria.
- Most countries prefer:
1. Migrants of the same race/ethnic groups
2. Jewish migrants
3. Poorer European countries
4. Poorer non-European countries
5. Muslims (but countries with a large Muslim population are more favourable).
- Attitudes to immigration appear to have deep-rooted origins.
Rodriguez-Pose, A., Berlepsch, V. (2018). Does Population Diversity Matter for Economic
Development in the Very Long Term?
Main point: diversity is only beneficial when different groups interact
3
Demographic transition
Zelinsky- Hypothesis of
the mobility transition.
Claim: modernization of societies affects patterns of mobility.
Hypothesis: patterned regularities in the growth of personal
mobility, comprising an essential component of the
modernization process.
Most important statements:
1. Transition from sessile condition of limited mobility
toward higher rates due to modernization.
2. Parallel to the demographic transition.
3. Irreversible process.
Phases:
1. Pre-modern traditional society.
2. Early transitional society.
3. Late transitional society.
4. Advanced society.
5. Future super advanced society.
Criticism:
- Not included; urban-rural and rural-
rural, seasonal/temporary/labor and
local migration.
- Push and pull factors regarding
economy.
- Family, culture or economic
reasons.
- Supported by censuses. Ravensteins 11 laws:
1. The majority of migrants travel only a short
Inspired by: distance.
- Demographic transition model 2. Migration proceeds step by step.
- Ravensteins 11 laws of migration 3. Migrants going long distances generally go to
- Spatial differentiation one of the great centers of commerce or industry.
- Economic optimalization 4. Each current of migration produces a
compensating counter-current.
5. The natives of towns are less migratory than
those of rural areas.
6. Females are more migratory than males within
their country of birth, but males more frequently
venture beyond.
7. Most migrants are adults-families rarely migrate
out of their country of birth.
8. Large towns grow more by migration than by
natural increase.
9. Migration increases in volume as industries and
commerce develop and transport improve.
10. The major direction of migration is from
agricultural areas to centers of industry and
commerce. 11. The major causes of migration are
1 economic.
, 1. Paleomigrants
Ancient humans were very mobile, but were they migrants? According to UN definition;
yes. A person moved across international border away from the habitual place of resistance.
2. Global migrations (16th-19th century)
Lucassen: cross-community migration.
did include seasonal + labor migration.
Conclusion:
Absolute migration: increased exponentially.
Relative migration: 50% increase after IR, less than
Zelinsky predicted.
Migrations to cities underestimated because of the
exclusion of temporary migration.
10% of in-migrants stay in the cities.
3. Preindustrial migration systems (1800)
Migration linked to demographic regimes and family formation systems.
Temporary migration systems- from mountains to Paris.
North Sea migration system- German workers migrate.
European system- young people in north-west Europe participated in life-cycle service
(work in another household to earn money) because they married later than eastern Europe
regional migrants. (this within country migration also omitted by Lucassen).
4. Modern mobility
a. Industrialization and migration
Hochstadt: economic crisis drop in migration. Industrial work became more
rationalized/specialized, temporary work/migration stopped (peasant-workers).
Rates of mobility aren’t a shift toward modern mobility society, but dependent on the
circumstances.
b. Recent trends
Composition of migrants changed (more from
Global South). More migrants because bigger
population. There is no mechanical effect of
modernity.
Week 2- lecture 1 en 2
Types of migration:
- Internal within country
- Global beyond border
2
, - Forced refugee (violence), natural disaster, development projects.
- Voluntary economic
Refugee- forced to flee its country, fear of persecutions, can't return home.
Internally displaced person- flees home, but stays within the country (not protected by
international law).
Stateless person- not a citizen of any country.
1951 Geneva convention- refugees and their rights.
Approach Greece migrants: refugee camps, local & international volunteers.
Reasons refugee crisis: new smuggling routes, conflict in Syria.
European Union: relocate 120.000 migrants.
EU-Turkey deal: refugees could choose to stay and seek asylum or deportation to Turkey.
Short term: phase emergency, necessary conditions to survive.
Long term: phase integration, integration (also labor market).
Other considerations:
- Economic contribution regarding demographic/pension crisis.
- Socio-cultural diversity is culturally enriching
- Social tension polarization, fractionalization
- Others historical background, attitudes, norms and values, education, social
capital, social and economic conditions, refugees’ expectations and aspirations, national and
local politics, media discourse.
#refugeeswelcome UNHCR assistance to refugees & asylum seekers through #ESTIA
Office of displaced designers.
Refugees and the labor market: much lower employment rate compared to other migrants. 40%
refugees low-educated, language training is crucial.
Heath. A. and L. Richards (2019), “How do Europeans differ in their attitudes to immigration? :
Findings from the European Social Survey 2002/03 - 2016/17”
Nordic countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland) are more favourable to immigration than eastern
European countries (Czech, Hungary). High-skilled migrants are preferred over less-skilled
migrants. High internal polarization within western and northern Europe along educational and age
lines. 2003-2016, European attitudes were on average quite stable, but Europe became less united.
- Since 2002 more inward migration, % migrants of the total population has grown.
- Europe became slightly more positive about the benefits of immigration.
- Attitudes regarding the number of migrants stayed the same. Increasing divergence between
European countries, some more favourable, some less favourable.
- Majority of countries became more negative about government policy.
- Western countries: large number of migrants, focus on work skills (west European)
Countries with less immigration: focus on religious background (east European). Nordic
cluster: low importance to both criteria.
- Most countries prefer:
1. Migrants of the same race/ethnic groups
2. Jewish migrants
3. Poorer European countries
4. Poorer non-European countries
5. Muslims (but countries with a large Muslim population are more favourable).
- Attitudes to immigration appear to have deep-rooted origins.
Rodriguez-Pose, A., Berlepsch, V. (2018). Does Population Diversity Matter for Economic
Development in the Very Long Term?
Main point: diversity is only beneficial when different groups interact
3
