READING 3
RETHINKING REVOLUTIONS: INTEGRATING ORIGINS, PROCESSES, AND OUTCOMES – GOLDSTONE
Myth of revolution:
- It is sudden
- It involves popular energy
- It involves social change
- Dramatic acts
- Rapid series of events
- Old regimes fall
- New regimes are constructed
- Population accepts (is forced to accept) the new order
- It is explosive
State-centered theory of revolution: revolution viewed as a problem of state collapse
State-centered theories examine processes + outcomes of revolutions they result in more authoritarian
regimes to face domestic/international opponents
BUT: these theories have been challenged by the “color” + anticommunist revolutions of 1980s:
- Yellow revolution in Philippines
- Velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia
- Orange revolution in Ukraine
- Rose revolution in Georgia
- Cedar revolution in Lebanon
- Tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan
- + by anticommunist revolutions in ALL of these followed a novel path
i. Poland
ii. East Germany
iii. Hungary
iv. Serbia
v. Bulgaria
New path moderate confrontations between crowds (peaceful demonstrations) vs. powerful
authoritarian states without confidence result: the state conceded power/negotiated with the crowd
leading to a new government weaker + more democratic CONTRADICTION with standard revolutions!!!!
SIMILARITIES between new revolutions and old (violent/autocracy producing) revolution
CAUSES are the same
1. Fiscal/economic deterioration (undermining the state authority)
2. Divided elites
3. Popular grievances against the state (so mass mobilization)
4. Ideology of opposition (justifies the rejection of state authority
DIFFERENCES
PROCESSES + OUTCOMES
1. Old revolutions autocracy-producing + violent
, 2. New revolutions weak/liberal state outcomes
Theory of revolutionary processes natural-history approach which look to few cases and then identify a
course of events leading to similar outcomes INSTEAD OF identifying trajectories/key differences in
outcomes
“Color” revolutions NOT first revolutions to follow new paths BUT also:
- Netherlands’ revolution vs. Spain (1566)
- British Glorious Revolution (1688)
- American Revolution (1776)
- Japanese Meiji Restoration (1868)
- Chinese Republican Revolution (1911)
Not truly revolutions since they
i. Lack violence
ii. Lack authoritarian outcome
iii. Lack more typical major revolutions
iv. Resulted in regime change to weaker regimes:
1) Netherlands Union of Provinces
2) Britain constitutional monarchy + divided Parliament
3) US confederation of states
4) Japan oligarchic parliamentary
5) China weak republican government soon dominated by warlords
Similar to “color” revolution – similar pattern
Revolutionary processes 12 components
1. Elite defection + formation of opposition
2. Polarization + coalition building
3. Mass mobilization
4. Initial regime change
5. Further polarization
6. Counterrevolution
7. Civil war
8. International war
9. Radical regime change + terror
10. Revolutionary moderation
11. Renewed radicalism + terror
12. Regime consolidation
variations in these components can shape the process + outcomes of revolutions
1 – 2 – 3 components:
Rulers depend on the support of the elites people express anger through acts of disorder + it is the elite
that determines whether such actions will grow into revolutions
unless armed forces (police + military) take care of them which occur when they are loyal + well-
disciplined + provided with money + effective administration
SO, to overturn a government:
1. Organized opposition able to persuade the military to desert or have an alternative
force vs state’s military
2. Opposition leader has to combine anger of different groups
RETHINKING REVOLUTIONS: INTEGRATING ORIGINS, PROCESSES, AND OUTCOMES – GOLDSTONE
Myth of revolution:
- It is sudden
- It involves popular energy
- It involves social change
- Dramatic acts
- Rapid series of events
- Old regimes fall
- New regimes are constructed
- Population accepts (is forced to accept) the new order
- It is explosive
State-centered theory of revolution: revolution viewed as a problem of state collapse
State-centered theories examine processes + outcomes of revolutions they result in more authoritarian
regimes to face domestic/international opponents
BUT: these theories have been challenged by the “color” + anticommunist revolutions of 1980s:
- Yellow revolution in Philippines
- Velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia
- Orange revolution in Ukraine
- Rose revolution in Georgia
- Cedar revolution in Lebanon
- Tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan
- + by anticommunist revolutions in ALL of these followed a novel path
i. Poland
ii. East Germany
iii. Hungary
iv. Serbia
v. Bulgaria
New path moderate confrontations between crowds (peaceful demonstrations) vs. powerful
authoritarian states without confidence result: the state conceded power/negotiated with the crowd
leading to a new government weaker + more democratic CONTRADICTION with standard revolutions!!!!
SIMILARITIES between new revolutions and old (violent/autocracy producing) revolution
CAUSES are the same
1. Fiscal/economic deterioration (undermining the state authority)
2. Divided elites
3. Popular grievances against the state (so mass mobilization)
4. Ideology of opposition (justifies the rejection of state authority
DIFFERENCES
PROCESSES + OUTCOMES
1. Old revolutions autocracy-producing + violent
, 2. New revolutions weak/liberal state outcomes
Theory of revolutionary processes natural-history approach which look to few cases and then identify a
course of events leading to similar outcomes INSTEAD OF identifying trajectories/key differences in
outcomes
“Color” revolutions NOT first revolutions to follow new paths BUT also:
- Netherlands’ revolution vs. Spain (1566)
- British Glorious Revolution (1688)
- American Revolution (1776)
- Japanese Meiji Restoration (1868)
- Chinese Republican Revolution (1911)
Not truly revolutions since they
i. Lack violence
ii. Lack authoritarian outcome
iii. Lack more typical major revolutions
iv. Resulted in regime change to weaker regimes:
1) Netherlands Union of Provinces
2) Britain constitutional monarchy + divided Parliament
3) US confederation of states
4) Japan oligarchic parliamentary
5) China weak republican government soon dominated by warlords
Similar to “color” revolution – similar pattern
Revolutionary processes 12 components
1. Elite defection + formation of opposition
2. Polarization + coalition building
3. Mass mobilization
4. Initial regime change
5. Further polarization
6. Counterrevolution
7. Civil war
8. International war
9. Radical regime change + terror
10. Revolutionary moderation
11. Renewed radicalism + terror
12. Regime consolidation
variations in these components can shape the process + outcomes of revolutions
1 – 2 – 3 components:
Rulers depend on the support of the elites people express anger through acts of disorder + it is the elite
that determines whether such actions will grow into revolutions
unless armed forces (police + military) take care of them which occur when they are loyal + well-
disciplined + provided with money + effective administration
SO, to overturn a government:
1. Organized opposition able to persuade the military to desert or have an alternative
force vs state’s military
2. Opposition leader has to combine anger of different groups
