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Chapter 5:
Chapter 5:
1 2 Probability of the complement of a is found
Random experiment
by subtracting the probability of A from 1
Chapter 5:
Chapter 5:
3 Events that cannot both occur at the same 4
Probability
time are mutually ________ events
Don't know?
Terms in this set (156)
Chapter 5: Observational process whose results cannot be known in
Random experiment advance
Chapter 5: the set of all possible outcomes
Sample space
Chapter 5: Subset of outcomes in the sample space
Event
Chapter 5: an elementary event, a single outcome
Simple event
Chapter 5: likelihood that a particular event will occur
Probability
, Empirical; estimated from observed outcome frequency,
example there's a 3.2% chance of twins in a randomly chosen
birth
Chapter 5:
classical; known a prioriti by the nature of the experiment,
Three views of probability and
example there is a 50% chance of heads on a coin flip
their meaning
subjective; based on informed opinion or judgment, example
there is a 60% chance that Toronto will bid for the 2024 winter
Olympics
Chapter 5: Event cannot occur
P(A)=0
Chapter 5: event is certain to occur
P(A)=1
Chapter 5: use deduction to determine P(A)
Classical approach
probability is needed when there's no repeatable random
experiment
for example what is the probability that Fords new supplier of
Chapter 5:
plastic fasteners will be able to meet the September 23 shipment
Subjective approach
deadline or what is the probability that a new truck product
program will show a return on investment of at least 10%, or what
is the probability that the price of Forte stock will raise within the
next 30 days
Chapter 5: probability reflects someone's informed judgment about the
Subjective likelihood of an event
Chapter 5: P(A) + p(A') = 1
Complement
Chapter 5: P(A') = 1-P(A)
Probability of the complement
of a is found by subtracting the
probability of A from 1
Chapter 5: Two events consist of all outcomes in the sample space capital S
Union that are contained either an event A or an event B or in both
Chapter 5: two events A and B is the event consisting of all outcomes in the
Intersection sample space S that are contained in both event A and event B
the probability of the union of two events A and B is the sum of
Chapter 5: their probabilities less the probability of the intersection
General law of addition
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Chapter 5:
Events A and B are mutually
exclusive (or disjoint) if their
intersection is the empty set (a
set that contains no elements)
Chapter 5: P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)(addition law for mutually exclusive events)
If A and B are mutually exclusive
events, then P(A ∩ B) = 0 and the For example, if we look at a person's age, then P(under 21) = .28
general addition law can be and P(over 65) = .12, so P(under 21 or over 65) = .28 + .12 = .40
simplified to the sum of the because these events do not overlap.
individual probabilities for A and
B, the special law of addition.
, Chapter 5:
Events are collectively
exhaustive if their union is the
entire sample space S (i.e., all the
events that can possibly occur).
Two mutually exclusive,
collectively exhaustive events
are binary (or dichotomous)
events.
Chapter 5: P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
If events A and B are
independent, then
Chapter 5:
Contingency tables often are
used to report the results of a
survey.
Chapter 5:
The marginal probability of an
event is a relative frequency that
is found by dividing a row or
column total by the total sample
size
Chapter 5:
Conditional probabilities may be
found by restricting ourselves to
a single row or column (the
condition). For example,
suppose we know that a school's
MBA tuition is high (T3). When
we restrict ourselves to the 32
schools in the third row (those
with high tuition), the conditional
probabilities of any event may
be calculated. For example,
Table 5.7 illustrates the
calculation of the conditional
probability that salary gains are
small (S1) given that the MBA
tuition is large (T3).
Chapter 5: P(S3 | T1) = 1/16 = .0625
Conditional
Chapter 5: P(S3) = 17/67 = .2537
Marginal
Chapter 5: Random experiment
A trial, or process, that produces
several possible outcomes that
cannot be known in advance is
called an/a ......
Chapter 5: sample space
The set of all possible outcomes
from a random experiment is
called a
Chapter 5: Event
A subset of the sample space is
a/an
Chapter 5: True
True or false: probability is a
number that describes
uncertainty