Summary CFA L2 Economics

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It
1Bn Éoffer


Yummycussrate
Reading 5: Key Concepts
SCHWESERNOTES - BOOK 1
Triangulararbitragelosedealerrates
rates
Forecastingexchange
warningsignsofcurrencycrises Fxcarry Δ int dep
LOS 5.a BASE
as
bid–ask spread (for base currency) = ask quote − bid quote See
Dealer spreads depend on spreads in the interbank market, the transaction size, and the dealer-client relationship. Interbank spreads
depend on the currencies involved, time of day, and volatility in the currency pair. Forward spreads increase with maturities.


T.IEpi9yLOS 5.b dogation ABuffer Bla's F it B s
To calculate the profits from triangular arbitrage, start in the home currency and go around the triangle by exchanging the home
currency for the first foreign currency, then exchanging the first foreign currency for the second foreign currency, and then exchanging
Arbitrage
the second foreign currency back into the home currency. If we end up with more money than what we had when we started, we've
earned an arbitrage profit. The bid–ask spread forces us to buy a currency at a higher rate going one way than we can sell it for going the
1 bidtoohigh asktoolow
other way.


2 buy borrow undervalued sell overvalued
LOS 5.c

A spot exchange rate is for immediate delivery, while a forward exchange rate is for future delivery.


eg BID HIGH bid upthebid
TOO 1
premium (discount) for base currency = forward price − spot price burrow B
LOS 5.d
Markto market
The mark-to-market value of a forward contract reflects the profit that would be realized by closing out the position at current market
prices, which is equivalent to o"setting the contract with an equal and opposite forward position:

benefitswhen Falls
LONG Vt = (FPt −FP)(contract size)
longFalls
[1+R( 360 )]
days go
price 515th
where:

Vt = value of the forward contract at time t (to the party buying the base currency), (t < T) denominated in price currency


purchasing
FPt = forward price (to sell base currency) at time t in the market for a new contract maturing at time T ATC
FP = forward price specified inENASABI RA R
the contract at inception (to buy the base currency) Fisher A real R
days = number of days remaining to maturity of the forward contract (T − t) uncovered Δ nom R
R = interest rate of price currency
as Ea Elitist
LOS 5.e

Covered interest arbitrage: Range EatElitist
[1+RA ( )]
days
360
F Elsel
F= S0
[1+RB ( )]
days
360



it 3 xs
Uncovered interest rate parity:

E(%ΔS)(A/B) = RA − RB

International Fisher relation:
CarryRtrade− R excessh=urtosis negativesaw
E(inflation ) − E(inflation )
nominal A nominal B A B
borrowlowyield investhighyield
Relative PPP:


inv fundingrates
%ΔS(A/B) = inflationA − inflationB
E RI Δ and inv
Forward rate parity:

F = E(ST)




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, noarbitrage F https s oxsopryaEYm F so 0 1Bn Éoffer
It
Yummycussrate
Reading 5: Key Concepts
SCHWESERNOTES - BOOK 1
Triangulararbitragelosedealerrates
rates
Forecastingexchange
warningsignsofcurrencycrises Fxcarry int dep
LOS 5.a

bid–ask spread (for base currency) = ask quote − bid quote 1.414T BASE
Dealer spreads depend on spreads in the interbank market, the transaction size, and the dealer-client relationship. Interbank spreads
depend on the currencies involved, time of day, and volatility in the currency pair. Forward spreads increase with maturities.
inpips110,000s
LOS 5.b
insize
To calculate the profits from triangular arbitrage, start in the home currency and go around the triangle by exchanging the home
currency for the first foreign currency, then exchanging the first foreign currency for the second foreign currency, and then exchanging
the second foreign currency back into the home currency. If we end up with more money than what we had when we started, we've
earned an arbitrage profit. The bid–ask spread forces us to buy a currency at a higher rate going one way than we can sell it for going the

whitting aigates
other way. affect trisa
LOS 5.c
Tekken
e atsid
upthebid x downtheask
bayiasegiyt.ee
A spot exchange rate is for immediate delivery, while a forward exchange rate is for future delivery.

premium (discount) for base currency = forward price − spot price

LOS 5.d
19 pt 1.1 1.2

The mark-to-market value of a forward contract reflects the profit that would be realized by closing out the position at current market
prices, which is equivalent to o"setting the contract with an equal and opposite forward position:

(FPt −FP)(contract size)
Vt =
[1+R( 360 )]
days



where:

Vt = value of the forward contract at time t (to the party buying the base currency), (t < T) denominated in price currency

FPt = forward price (to sell base currency) at time t in the market for a new contract1Bn
crossrate
biffles Éoffer
maturing at time T

FP = forward price specified in the contract at inception (to buy the base currency)

days = number of days remaining to maturity of the forward contract (T − t)

R = interest rate of price currency

LOS 5.e

Covered interest arbitrage:


[1+RA ( )]
days
360
F= S0
[1+RB ( )]
days


Yf ask m
360
1 BID x
Uncovered interest rate parity:

sx0.6 6.42
E(%ΔS)(A/B) = RA − RB
t.jp 06015 6.4481
International Fisher relation:

Rnominal A − Rnominal B = E(inflationA) − E(inflationB)

Relative PPP: PLUG
%ΔS(A/B) = inflationA − inflationB

Forward rate parity:

F = E(ST)




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