System Dynamics
Assignment 1
Wietske Anema
Part 1: Problem Definition and Model Conceptualization
Part A. Diagnosing Causes of Policy Resistance in Fighting Forest Wildfires
Exercise 1: Important variables
1. Wildfire occurrences
2. Available Fuel
3. Amount of forrest
4. Damage
5. Drought Stress
6. Fire intensity
7. Fire suppression
Exercise 2:
Time horizon: 5 years, measured in months. This should capture the recovery and growth of
forest and trends in wildfires.
, Exercise 3:
Exercise 4:
Wildfire paradox: The forest fire damage continues to grow according to the R2 loop. This
reinforcing loop means that all the included variables continue to increase.
Increasing frequency: R1 is a reinforcing loop, hence it has positive feedback. If there is no
influences, each variable will exponentially increase. Hence the frequency of wildfires
increases.
Increasing intensity: The fire intensity increases due to the increase in available fuel. This is
described in the wildlife paradox (R2).
B1 balancing loop: The amount of forest and wildfire occurrences is represented in the
following balancing loop: amount of forest → available fuel → wildfire occurrences
The R1 loop and R2 loop link through the fire suppression and available fuel variables.
The B1 loop links to R1 and R2 through available fuel and indirectly through variables such
as damage.
Assignment 1
Wietske Anema
Part 1: Problem Definition and Model Conceptualization
Part A. Diagnosing Causes of Policy Resistance in Fighting Forest Wildfires
Exercise 1: Important variables
1. Wildfire occurrences
2. Available Fuel
3. Amount of forrest
4. Damage
5. Drought Stress
6. Fire intensity
7. Fire suppression
Exercise 2:
Time horizon: 5 years, measured in months. This should capture the recovery and growth of
forest and trends in wildfires.
, Exercise 3:
Exercise 4:
Wildfire paradox: The forest fire damage continues to grow according to the R2 loop. This
reinforcing loop means that all the included variables continue to increase.
Increasing frequency: R1 is a reinforcing loop, hence it has positive feedback. If there is no
influences, each variable will exponentially increase. Hence the frequency of wildfires
increases.
Increasing intensity: The fire intensity increases due to the increase in available fuel. This is
described in the wildlife paradox (R2).
B1 balancing loop: The amount of forest and wildfire occurrences is represented in the
following balancing loop: amount of forest → available fuel → wildfire occurrences
The R1 loop and R2 loop link through the fire suppression and available fuel variables.
The B1 loop links to R1 and R2 through available fuel and indirectly through variables such
as damage.
