Colleges AOT
Application of Theories course overview
Week 1 : introduction
● Lecture: Introduction to the course
● Practical: Where have all the criminals gone? Theories and evidence
Week 2: Explanation and Prediction
● Learn how to explain and predict phenomena
● Criteria for adequate explanations / predictions
● Alternative methods?
● Common problems and a checklist.
Week 3: Logic
● Learn how to formulate arguments/explanations.
● Learn how to test whether an argument/explanation is valid. • Learn core methods of “syllogistic
logic”.
Week 4: How to criticize a theory?
● What defines a good theory/explanation?
● How to formulate a good theory/explanation?
● How to criticize a theory/explanation?
● How to improve a problematic theory/explanation?
Weeks 5, 6 & assignment: Methodological individualism & Agent based modelling
● Why explain social phenomena from theories about individuals?
● Computational ‘simulation methods’ for doing this
Week 7: Applying theories to practical problems + wrap up
● How to use theories to tackle real-life problems?
● Frequently encountered problems
,Application of Theories - week 1 - introduction and overview
From observation to questions
● Why is there opinion polarization?
● Under what conditions is there polarization?
● How can we prevent polarization?
Tragedy of the commons; destruction of resources for personal gain. Under what conditions can public goods be
sustained?
● Common pool resource
● Why do public goods often deteriorate even if everyone would like to sustain them?
● Under what conditions can public goods be sustained?
● (Related) Why do humans often cooperate with each other despite incentives for freeriding?
The life-cycle of scientific research
No science without methods
- methods allow replication -> replication is key in science (dus andere wetenschappers moeten het
onderzoek kunnen herhalen)
- Methods give credibility
In sociology, methods of theory building are particularly important
- social systems are complex. Their dynamics are difficult to explain and predict
- Sociological theories may imply counter-intuitive predictions. To demonstrate their validity, you need an
accepted method
Sociology, intuition, and unexpected consequences
Durkheim: The “whole does not equal the sum of its parts; it is something different, whose properties differ from
those displayed by the parts from which it is formed.”
Voorbeelden:
- steden segregreren, zelfs wanneer bewoners tolerant zijn
- Publieke goederen verslechteren, zelfs wanneer de meesten mensen ze waarderen
,Week 1; practical: Where have all the criminals gone
25 most important research questions
● Science asked own editors and writers to suggest questions that point to critical knowledge gaps.
● Selection criteria:
○ Scientists should have a good shot at answering the questions over the next 25 years, or they should
at least know how to go about answering them.
○ How fundamental they are.
○ How broad-ranging, and whether their solutions will impact other scientific disciplines.
○ Some have few immediate practical implications (the composition of the universe,for example)
Others we chose because the answers will have enormous societal impact (whether an effective HIV
vaccine is feasible, or how much the carbon dioxide we are pumping into the atmosphere will warm
our planet, for example)
Crime rates stegen eerst enorm, maar na 1990 dalen
ze weer sterk
< vat het hoofdstuk samen
Hoe kunnen we deze homicide rates drop verklaren?
In nederland zien we deze sterke daling niet, blijft
constant
> enkele mogelijke verklaringen die besproken worden
Theory 1: Strong Economy
Theory: the decline is crime began in the early 1990s was accompanied by a blistening national economy and
significant drop in unemployment. -less unemployment
● Better alternatives to crime, more jobs
>
-
better alternatives
alleen
Critique:
● Homicide fell at a greater rate during the 1990s than any other sort of crime byiegsta
invloededaden
● No link found between economy and violent crime
geen
>
-
● During the 1960’s the economy
grew massively too, but so did
violent crime.
, had
The strong economy almost certianly didnt affect criminal behavior in any significant way.
afschrik
o
more people toprison
5
>
-
Theory 2: increased reliance on prisons +
longer
Theory: # can't commit more
● More people went to prison in between 1980-2000 for drugs charges (x15) + longer serving time
Critique: This cause only one third of the drop in crime > People commit more crime then one, so if you lock them up
they cant commit more.
D can't commit more
↓
-
deterrent > dit
maar
Theory 3: more capital punishment
-
-
25
wordt ontkracht
Theory: the number of executions in the US quadrupled between 1980s and 1990s
Critique:
Celagekans
● Executing 1 criminal translates into 7 fewer homicides that the criminal might have committed.
● Explains 1/25 of drops in homicide + alleen voorkomen
● People who had to get executed did not get executed (deathrow)
○ Criminals on the street have a higher risk of dying
moordnietedader
● Act as a deterrent. The idea of getting executed.
↓ -higher chance getting
caugth
Theory 4: more police 10 crimerates ↓
● Increasing the chance you might get caught -higher schrikt
● More police leads to higher crime rates, so a positive correlation. The more people in prison the higher the af
crime rate
● Explains ongeveer 10 procent of the crime drop in the 1990s
-broken window theorie
Theory 5: innovative policing -
clean
Theory: broken window theory. New police strategies led to a drop in crime in New York. If you punish people for
small crimes > creates a cleaner environment > other people will be less inclined to commit them —> lower chance
of bigger crimes > maar
-
kamt vooral doc
meer politie agenten
Theory 6: tougher gun laws
black market
Critique >
-
healthy
● In Switzerland guns are legal, but there are way less crimes ( langere straf op illegaal bezit)
● Existence of the black market : Regulation of legal market is bound to fail when a healthy black market exists
for the same product -w
>
-
injuiste handen = Schrikt af als Slachtoffe
↳ geen Wetenschappel s Pistod heeft
the
Theory 7: burst of the crack bubble I crack not worth
15 % crime
-
Theory: it was so longer worth killing someone to steal their crack, and certainly not worth being killed (doordat de
crack market veranderde)
Critique:
● The crash of the crack market accounted for roughly 15% of the crime drop of the 1990’s
older people commit less
Theory 8: aging population -T
- too slow
Theory: Since people mellow out as they get older more older people must lead to less crime
Critique: the demographic change is too slow to explain the decline in crime rates
Application of Theories course overview
Week 1 : introduction
● Lecture: Introduction to the course
● Practical: Where have all the criminals gone? Theories and evidence
Week 2: Explanation and Prediction
● Learn how to explain and predict phenomena
● Criteria for adequate explanations / predictions
● Alternative methods?
● Common problems and a checklist.
Week 3: Logic
● Learn how to formulate arguments/explanations.
● Learn how to test whether an argument/explanation is valid. • Learn core methods of “syllogistic
logic”.
Week 4: How to criticize a theory?
● What defines a good theory/explanation?
● How to formulate a good theory/explanation?
● How to criticize a theory/explanation?
● How to improve a problematic theory/explanation?
Weeks 5, 6 & assignment: Methodological individualism & Agent based modelling
● Why explain social phenomena from theories about individuals?
● Computational ‘simulation methods’ for doing this
Week 7: Applying theories to practical problems + wrap up
● How to use theories to tackle real-life problems?
● Frequently encountered problems
,Application of Theories - week 1 - introduction and overview
From observation to questions
● Why is there opinion polarization?
● Under what conditions is there polarization?
● How can we prevent polarization?
Tragedy of the commons; destruction of resources for personal gain. Under what conditions can public goods be
sustained?
● Common pool resource
● Why do public goods often deteriorate even if everyone would like to sustain them?
● Under what conditions can public goods be sustained?
● (Related) Why do humans often cooperate with each other despite incentives for freeriding?
The life-cycle of scientific research
No science without methods
- methods allow replication -> replication is key in science (dus andere wetenschappers moeten het
onderzoek kunnen herhalen)
- Methods give credibility
In sociology, methods of theory building are particularly important
- social systems are complex. Their dynamics are difficult to explain and predict
- Sociological theories may imply counter-intuitive predictions. To demonstrate their validity, you need an
accepted method
Sociology, intuition, and unexpected consequences
Durkheim: The “whole does not equal the sum of its parts; it is something different, whose properties differ from
those displayed by the parts from which it is formed.”
Voorbeelden:
- steden segregreren, zelfs wanneer bewoners tolerant zijn
- Publieke goederen verslechteren, zelfs wanneer de meesten mensen ze waarderen
,Week 1; practical: Where have all the criminals gone
25 most important research questions
● Science asked own editors and writers to suggest questions that point to critical knowledge gaps.
● Selection criteria:
○ Scientists should have a good shot at answering the questions over the next 25 years, or they should
at least know how to go about answering them.
○ How fundamental they are.
○ How broad-ranging, and whether their solutions will impact other scientific disciplines.
○ Some have few immediate practical implications (the composition of the universe,for example)
Others we chose because the answers will have enormous societal impact (whether an effective HIV
vaccine is feasible, or how much the carbon dioxide we are pumping into the atmosphere will warm
our planet, for example)
Crime rates stegen eerst enorm, maar na 1990 dalen
ze weer sterk
< vat het hoofdstuk samen
Hoe kunnen we deze homicide rates drop verklaren?
In nederland zien we deze sterke daling niet, blijft
constant
> enkele mogelijke verklaringen die besproken worden
Theory 1: Strong Economy
Theory: the decline is crime began in the early 1990s was accompanied by a blistening national economy and
significant drop in unemployment. -less unemployment
● Better alternatives to crime, more jobs
>
-
better alternatives
alleen
Critique:
● Homicide fell at a greater rate during the 1990s than any other sort of crime byiegsta
invloededaden
● No link found between economy and violent crime
geen
>
-
● During the 1960’s the economy
grew massively too, but so did
violent crime.
, had
The strong economy almost certianly didnt affect criminal behavior in any significant way.
afschrik
o
more people toprison
5
>
-
Theory 2: increased reliance on prisons +
longer
Theory: # can't commit more
● More people went to prison in between 1980-2000 for drugs charges (x15) + longer serving time
Critique: This cause only one third of the drop in crime > People commit more crime then one, so if you lock them up
they cant commit more.
D can't commit more
↓
-
deterrent > dit
maar
Theory 3: more capital punishment
-
-
25
wordt ontkracht
Theory: the number of executions in the US quadrupled between 1980s and 1990s
Critique:
Celagekans
● Executing 1 criminal translates into 7 fewer homicides that the criminal might have committed.
● Explains 1/25 of drops in homicide + alleen voorkomen
● People who had to get executed did not get executed (deathrow)
○ Criminals on the street have a higher risk of dying
moordnietedader
● Act as a deterrent. The idea of getting executed.
↓ -higher chance getting
caugth
Theory 4: more police 10 crimerates ↓
● Increasing the chance you might get caught -higher schrikt
● More police leads to higher crime rates, so a positive correlation. The more people in prison the higher the af
crime rate
● Explains ongeveer 10 procent of the crime drop in the 1990s
-broken window theorie
Theory 5: innovative policing -
clean
Theory: broken window theory. New police strategies led to a drop in crime in New York. If you punish people for
small crimes > creates a cleaner environment > other people will be less inclined to commit them —> lower chance
of bigger crimes > maar
-
kamt vooral doc
meer politie agenten
Theory 6: tougher gun laws
black market
Critique >
-
healthy
● In Switzerland guns are legal, but there are way less crimes ( langere straf op illegaal bezit)
● Existence of the black market : Regulation of legal market is bound to fail when a healthy black market exists
for the same product -w
>
-
injuiste handen = Schrikt af als Slachtoffe
↳ geen Wetenschappel s Pistod heeft
the
Theory 7: burst of the crack bubble I crack not worth
15 % crime
-
Theory: it was so longer worth killing someone to steal their crack, and certainly not worth being killed (doordat de
crack market veranderde)
Critique:
● The crash of the crack market accounted for roughly 15% of the crime drop of the 1990’s
older people commit less
Theory 8: aging population -T
- too slow
Theory: Since people mellow out as they get older more older people must lead to less crime
Critique: the demographic change is too slow to explain the decline in crime rates
