Risk communication
Readings blok 4
- aan het einde weer kijken naar de “learning goals”
, Week 1
Monday, April 7th
Defining risk =
“Undesirable things that might happen” (spiegelhalter, 2017)
“The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing (negative) events” (Gigerenzer, 2003)
• Objective likelihood makes it measurable -> de kans dat het ook echt gebeurt
• "De kans dat er iets vervelends gebeurt."
Risk =
Risk is when you know something could go wrong, but you also know the chances of it happening.
The likelihood of an unwanted event (probability)
The magnitude of the consequences (severity)
Severity =
Ernst
Uncertainty is not the same as risks. You can’t tell for sure how bad something is going to be and if it is
going to happen.
= uncertainty about the severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to
something that humans value.
Difference uncertainty and risk:
While uncertainty and risk are closely related, they mean different things — especially in decision-
making and marketing.
Risk
•
You know the possible outcomes and their probabilities.
•
You can measure or calculate the chance of success or failure.
•
Example: You invest in a product launch with a 70% chance of success — that’s risk.
“Known outcomes with known odds.”
Uncertainty
• You don’t know the outcomes, or you can’t assign probabilities.
• It’s harder to plan because the situation is unpredictable.
• Example: Launching a brand-new product in an emerging market — no data, no clear
expectations.
“Unknown outcomes or unknown odds.”
Kinds of risks:
1. Environmental risks:
These are dangers that come from nature or our surroundings, like floods, wildfires, pollution,
or climate change.
2. Technological risks:
These involve problems with technology—such as software bugs, data breaches, hacking, or
equipment failure.
, 3. Health risks:
These are risks that affect people’s physical or mental well-being, like exposure to disease,
poor nutrition (voeding), or unsafe working conditions
Dimensions of risk:
This slide explains how people perceive risks based on two key dimensions (from Slovic, 2016):
1. Controllability – Can we manage the risk?
2. Knowability – Do we understand the risk?
Risks are placed along two dimensions:
• Safe operations (green corner) = Controllable, known,
and not scary.
• Risky operations (red corner) = Uncontrollable,
unknown, and scary.
It shows how different factors like whether a risk
is voluntary, observable, or equitable affect how risky people
think it is.
This slide shows that how people perceive risk depends not just on facts, but on how much
control they feel they have and how well they understand the risk.
risk vs. hazard:
• Hazard = Something that has the potential to cause harm (e.g., bleach).
• Risk = The chance of harm actually happening, which depends on exposure.
n
"Possibility vs. probability":
• A hazard is the possibility of danger. (bron van mogelijk gevaar)
• A risk is the probability of being harmed based on actual exposure (de kans dat het ook echt
gebeurt)
Even though something is dangerous (a hazard), it only becomes a risk when people are exposed to it.
The goal is to avoid turning hazards into risks by avoiding unsafe actions.
Example: A lit candle
• Hazard: The open flame from the candle
→ It can cause burns or start a fire.
• Action (Exposure): Leaving the candle unattended near curtains
→ Now someone (or something) is exposed to the danger.
• Risk: The probability of a fire starting because of that setup
→ This depends on factors like wind, proximity to flammable stuff, etc.
If you don’t touch the glorix: it’s a hazard. The probability of what could happen if you touch it. It has
the potential to harm, but when you touch it, it has the possibility to harm you.
risk vs. uncertainty:
• Risk: We know the outcomes and their probabilities (e.g., rolling a die).
• Uncertainty: We don’t fully know the outcomes or how likely they are.
, We can predict the future, but we don’t have all the knowledge/data to make sure it will happen ->
makes it uncertain.
Quote (Donald Rumsfeld):
• Known knowns – Stuff we know we understand.
• Known unknowns – We know we don’t have the answer (e.g., "I know I don’t speak Spanish").
• Unknown unknowns – We don’t even know what we’re missing — these are the trickiest!
Levels of uncertainty:
• Things we can’t know (first-order, or aleatory uncertainty)
• Things we don’t know (second-order or epistemic uncertainty)
1. Dingen die we niet kúnnen weten 2. Dingen die we nu niet wéten
(First-order / aleatory uncertainty) (Second-order / epistemic uncertainty)
Dit is onzekerheid door toeval of onvoorspelbaarheid. Dit is onzekerheid door een gebrek aan kennis.
We kunnen het niet weten, zelfs als we veel meten of We zouden het kunnen weten, maar we hebben (nog)
onderzoeken. niet genoeg informatie.
Voorbeeld: Voorbeeld:
Je weet nooit precies wie de loterij wint — dat is puur We weten niet precies hoe een nieuw virus zich
toeval. verspreidt — omdat we nog onderzoek moeten doen
Risk society (article of this week)
“The interactive process of exchanging knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and opinions related to
risks between individuals, groups, and institutions.”
This means risk communication isn’t just giving facts — it’s about dialogue, understanding, and trust.
Lasswell’s Model Applied to Risk Communication:
1. Who
→ The communicator (e.g., scientist, government, media).
2. Communicates what
→ The risk message or information (e.g., about a virus, a natural disaster, food safety).
3. In what form
→ The way the message is delivered (e.g., press release, infographic, social media post).
4. To whom
→ The target audience (e.g., general public, specific communities, policymakers).
5. To what effect
→ The impact (e.g., increased awareness, behavior change, panic, trust).
The shift to a risk of society:
In the past:
• Most risks were natural (e.g. floods, diseases).
• These were managed by governments and welfare systems.
With progress:
• Modern development brought economic growth and technology,
• But also new risks that are harder to manage.
Now:
Readings blok 4
- aan het einde weer kijken naar de “learning goals”
, Week 1
Monday, April 7th
Defining risk =
“Undesirable things that might happen” (spiegelhalter, 2017)
“The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing (negative) events” (Gigerenzer, 2003)
• Objective likelihood makes it measurable -> de kans dat het ook echt gebeurt
• "De kans dat er iets vervelends gebeurt."
Risk =
Risk is when you know something could go wrong, but you also know the chances of it happening.
The likelihood of an unwanted event (probability)
The magnitude of the consequences (severity)
Severity =
Ernst
Uncertainty is not the same as risks. You can’t tell for sure how bad something is going to be and if it is
going to happen.
= uncertainty about the severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to
something that humans value.
Difference uncertainty and risk:
While uncertainty and risk are closely related, they mean different things — especially in decision-
making and marketing.
Risk
•
You know the possible outcomes and their probabilities.
•
You can measure or calculate the chance of success or failure.
•
Example: You invest in a product launch with a 70% chance of success — that’s risk.
“Known outcomes with known odds.”
Uncertainty
• You don’t know the outcomes, or you can’t assign probabilities.
• It’s harder to plan because the situation is unpredictable.
• Example: Launching a brand-new product in an emerging market — no data, no clear
expectations.
“Unknown outcomes or unknown odds.”
Kinds of risks:
1. Environmental risks:
These are dangers that come from nature or our surroundings, like floods, wildfires, pollution,
or climate change.
2. Technological risks:
These involve problems with technology—such as software bugs, data breaches, hacking, or
equipment failure.
, 3. Health risks:
These are risks that affect people’s physical or mental well-being, like exposure to disease,
poor nutrition (voeding), or unsafe working conditions
Dimensions of risk:
This slide explains how people perceive risks based on two key dimensions (from Slovic, 2016):
1. Controllability – Can we manage the risk?
2. Knowability – Do we understand the risk?
Risks are placed along two dimensions:
• Safe operations (green corner) = Controllable, known,
and not scary.
• Risky operations (red corner) = Uncontrollable,
unknown, and scary.
It shows how different factors like whether a risk
is voluntary, observable, or equitable affect how risky people
think it is.
This slide shows that how people perceive risk depends not just on facts, but on how much
control they feel they have and how well they understand the risk.
risk vs. hazard:
• Hazard = Something that has the potential to cause harm (e.g., bleach).
• Risk = The chance of harm actually happening, which depends on exposure.
n
"Possibility vs. probability":
• A hazard is the possibility of danger. (bron van mogelijk gevaar)
• A risk is the probability of being harmed based on actual exposure (de kans dat het ook echt
gebeurt)
Even though something is dangerous (a hazard), it only becomes a risk when people are exposed to it.
The goal is to avoid turning hazards into risks by avoiding unsafe actions.
Example: A lit candle
• Hazard: The open flame from the candle
→ It can cause burns or start a fire.
• Action (Exposure): Leaving the candle unattended near curtains
→ Now someone (or something) is exposed to the danger.
• Risk: The probability of a fire starting because of that setup
→ This depends on factors like wind, proximity to flammable stuff, etc.
If you don’t touch the glorix: it’s a hazard. The probability of what could happen if you touch it. It has
the potential to harm, but when you touch it, it has the possibility to harm you.
risk vs. uncertainty:
• Risk: We know the outcomes and their probabilities (e.g., rolling a die).
• Uncertainty: We don’t fully know the outcomes or how likely they are.
, We can predict the future, but we don’t have all the knowledge/data to make sure it will happen ->
makes it uncertain.
Quote (Donald Rumsfeld):
• Known knowns – Stuff we know we understand.
• Known unknowns – We know we don’t have the answer (e.g., "I know I don’t speak Spanish").
• Unknown unknowns – We don’t even know what we’re missing — these are the trickiest!
Levels of uncertainty:
• Things we can’t know (first-order, or aleatory uncertainty)
• Things we don’t know (second-order or epistemic uncertainty)
1. Dingen die we niet kúnnen weten 2. Dingen die we nu niet wéten
(First-order / aleatory uncertainty) (Second-order / epistemic uncertainty)
Dit is onzekerheid door toeval of onvoorspelbaarheid. Dit is onzekerheid door een gebrek aan kennis.
We kunnen het niet weten, zelfs als we veel meten of We zouden het kunnen weten, maar we hebben (nog)
onderzoeken. niet genoeg informatie.
Voorbeeld: Voorbeeld:
Je weet nooit precies wie de loterij wint — dat is puur We weten niet precies hoe een nieuw virus zich
toeval. verspreidt — omdat we nog onderzoek moeten doen
Risk society (article of this week)
“The interactive process of exchanging knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and opinions related to
risks between individuals, groups, and institutions.”
This means risk communication isn’t just giving facts — it’s about dialogue, understanding, and trust.
Lasswell’s Model Applied to Risk Communication:
1. Who
→ The communicator (e.g., scientist, government, media).
2. Communicates what
→ The risk message or information (e.g., about a virus, a natural disaster, food safety).
3. In what form
→ The way the message is delivered (e.g., press release, infographic, social media post).
4. To whom
→ The target audience (e.g., general public, specific communities, policymakers).
5. To what effect
→ The impact (e.g., increased awareness, behavior change, panic, trust).
The shift to a risk of society:
In the past:
• Most risks were natural (e.g. floods, diseases).
• These were managed by governments and welfare systems.
With progress:
• Modern development brought economic growth and technology,
• But also new risks that are harder to manage.
Now:
