QUM 3, Task Tw o
Western Governors University C207: Data-
Driven Decision Making
A1: B USINESS QUESTION DESCRIPTION
“One has to make decisions in their personal as well as professional life on number of
occasions but professional decisions affects whole organization, both in terms of future of
organization and achieving the goals that have been embarked” (Mittal et al., 2017). MPC will
have to make a critical decision regarding its drug pipeline against the backdrop of competitive
and market pressures. The most important business question that can be derived from decision
tree analysis is: "Which course of action—developing a new drug line, expanding the existing
drug line with new FDA-approved uses, or maintaining the current product—maximizes MPC’s
profitability given market conditions and associated risks?" Regarding the scenario provided,
this question is important because MPC has to evaluate the likelihood of success and forecast
demand for each option, taking into account uncertainties about market favorability. By
structuring this choice within a decision tree, MPC can quantitatively evaluate how profitable
each option will be in both a good and bad market.
A2: ANALY SIS TECHNIQUE JUSTIFICATION
, Decision tree analysis is the most appropriate tool for evaluating MPC’s strategic
options, as it systematically accounts for multiple decision paths, market uncertainties, and
associated financial outcomes. “Decision tree is a type of statistical method performed via
graphical representation of decision making process under several specified conditions” (Mittal
et al., 2017). The scenario presents three alternatives: developing a new drug line, expanding the
existing drug line with FDA-approved uses, or maintaining the current product without
modifications. Each solution has a probability of success for good and bad markets, and it has an
expected demand and unit profit. By using decision tree analysis, MPC could work out EMV for
each decision — and estimate the potential profits vs. the risks of the market. This structured
approach enables the company to identify the most financially viable strategy while balancing
risk and return. Additionally, the decision tree visually maps possible outcomes, helping
stakeholders assess trade-offs and make informed choices. Given the complexity of market
Western Governors University C207: Data-
Driven Decision Making
A1: B USINESS QUESTION DESCRIPTION
“One has to make decisions in their personal as well as professional life on number of
occasions but professional decisions affects whole organization, both in terms of future of
organization and achieving the goals that have been embarked” (Mittal et al., 2017). MPC will
have to make a critical decision regarding its drug pipeline against the backdrop of competitive
and market pressures. The most important business question that can be derived from decision
tree analysis is: "Which course of action—developing a new drug line, expanding the existing
drug line with new FDA-approved uses, or maintaining the current product—maximizes MPC’s
profitability given market conditions and associated risks?" Regarding the scenario provided,
this question is important because MPC has to evaluate the likelihood of success and forecast
demand for each option, taking into account uncertainties about market favorability. By
structuring this choice within a decision tree, MPC can quantitatively evaluate how profitable
each option will be in both a good and bad market.
A2: ANALY SIS TECHNIQUE JUSTIFICATION
, Decision tree analysis is the most appropriate tool for evaluating MPC’s strategic
options, as it systematically accounts for multiple decision paths, market uncertainties, and
associated financial outcomes. “Decision tree is a type of statistical method performed via
graphical representation of decision making process under several specified conditions” (Mittal
et al., 2017). The scenario presents three alternatives: developing a new drug line, expanding the
existing drug line with FDA-approved uses, or maintaining the current product without
modifications. Each solution has a probability of success for good and bad markets, and it has an
expected demand and unit profit. By using decision tree analysis, MPC could work out EMV for
each decision — and estimate the potential profits vs. the risks of the market. This structured
approach enables the company to identify the most financially viable strategy while balancing
risk and return. Additionally, the decision tree visually maps possible outcomes, helping
stakeholders assess trade-offs and make informed choices. Given the complexity of market
