summary equity valuation & analysis
5th edition
Equity Valuation & Analysis Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
Overview Of Business Activities
The Valuation Of An Equity Security Must Begin With A Thorough Analysis Of The Entity’s Underlying
Business Activities. Business Activities Can Be Divided Into Three Broad Categories:
1. Operating Activities
a. Activities That Are Directly Related To The Provision Of Goods And Services To Customers
b. Primary Means Through Which The Owners Of The Business Hope To Make A Profit
2. Investing Activities:
a. Purchases And Sales Of Resources That Provide Productive Capacity With Respect To
The Nature Of The Goods And Services That The Firm Is In The Business Of Providing
(E.G. Buying An Oven Is An Operating Activity For A Cooking Equipment Retailer, But
An Investing Activity For A Restaurant)
b. Involves Resource Commitments That Are Expected To Provide Benefits Over
Long Periods Of Time
c. The Investments A Company Makes Today May Be Used To Support Future
Operating Activities That Differ From The Current Operating Activities (E.G. Entering
A New Line Of Business)
d. In The Long Run, Operating And Investing Activities Are Closely Linked
3. Financing Activities
a. A Firm Can Finance The Operating And Investing Activities In Many Different
Ways Without Affecting The Nature Of The Activities
b. Firm Can Add Value To Create The Opportunity For The Owners Of The Business
To Leverage The Return From Their Operating And Investing Activities, To
Minimize Taxes And Transactions Costs, And To Exploit Inefficiencies In Capital
Markets
Overview Of Equity Valuation Theory
Equity Securities Are Financial Instruments And Their Value Is Equal To Net Present Value Of The
Future Cash Distributions. The Valuation Model Of Equity:
1. Value Of Equity As The Net Present Value Of The Expected Future Dividend Payments =
The Dividend-Discounting Model
∞
( )
Cash Dividend
P0=∑
T =1 (1+R )T
P0 = The Value Of The Common Equity At Time 0
Cash Dividend = Expected Amount Of Cash Dividends To Be Paid In Period
T R = Discount Rate
2. Value Of Equity As Net Present Value Of The Expected Future Dividend Payments
Including Stock Repurchases And Equity Issuances
∞
P0=∑
T =1 ( Cash Dividend+ Stock Repurchases−Equity Issuances
(1+R )T )
, Stock Repurchases = Amount Of Cash To Be Paid Out Via Stock Repurchases In Period T
Equity Issuances = Amount Of Cash To Be Raised Via Equity Issuances In Period T
Cash Dividend + Stock Repurchases – Equity Issuance = Net Distribution To Equity Holders
Equity Holders Are The Owners Of The Business And Have The Residual Claim On The Net Cash
Flows
Available From A Business’s Operating, Investing, And Non-Equity Financing Activities. But In Reality, The
,Distributions To Equity Holders Are Made At The Discretion Of Management, Based On A Variety Of
Factors. The Cash Flows Generated By Business’s Operating Activities Are The Key Driver Of
Distributions To Equity Holders
The Role Of Financial Statements
Role Of Financial Statements Is To Provide A Detailed Description Of The Financial Consequences Of
A Firm’s Historical Business Activities Financial Statements Summarize The Past Operating,
Investing And Financing Activities Of A Firm, And Show How These Activities Affect The Past, Present
And Expected Future Cash Flows. Financial Statements Have Two Roles In The Forecast:
1. Provide The Language For Translating Forecasts Of Future Business Activities Into
Forecast Of Future Cash Flows
a. Provide Information On How The Various Operating, Investing, And Financing
Activities Of A Firm Combine To Produce Cash Flows
2. Provide A Good Starting Point For Forecasting The Cash Flow Implications Of Future
Business Activities By Describing The Cash Flow Implications Of Past Business Activities
a. For The Forecast, Start With The Past Financial Statements And Then Modify
Those Statements Based On The Changes That Are Anticipated
b. However, Past Financial Statements Can Be A Poor Predictor In E.G. Start-Ups And
Firms That Make Significant Changes In Their Business Activities
Three Steps Of Equity Valuation
The Equity Valuation Process Can Be Divided Into Three Distinct Steps:
1. Understanding The Past
a. Need To Understand The Firm’s Financial Results In The Context Of Its Business
Strategy And The Industry And Economy In Which It Operates
2. Forecasting The Future
a. Forecasting The Financial Statements From Which The Estimates Of Future
Cash Distributions To Equity Holders Will Be Derived
3. Valuation
a. Convert The Estimates Of Future Distributions To Equity Holders In A Single Estimate
Of Firm Value
Understanding The Past
1. Information Collection
2. Understanding The Business: Aimed At Developing A Detailed Understanding Of The
Business Activities The Firm Is Engaged In (E.G. What Does The Business Make And How,
Competitors, Industry, Business Strategy)
3. Accounting Analysis: To Develop A Thorough Understanding Of How The Economic
Consequences Of Firm’s Business Activities Are Reflected In The Financial Statements And
Helps You Understand The Key Strengths And Weaknesses Of The Statement
a. Net Cash Flows Of A Firm Over Short Periods Of Time Provide A Noisy Signal Of The
Long- Run Cash Flow Consequences Of A Firm’s Business Activities Solution:
Accrual Accounting: Objective Is To Provide A Better Indication Of The Long-Run
Cash Flow Consequences Of A Firm’s Short-Run Business Activities
4. Financial Ratio Analysis: Show How The Components Of A Firm’s Financial Statements
Interact To Produce The Overall Financial Performance (E.G. Which Profit Margin, How Much
Investment Is Required To Generate The Sales) Identify The Key Drivers Of Financial
Performance
5. Cash Flow Analysis: Understanding The Cash Flows From A Firm’s Operating, Investing,
And Financing Activities
Forecasting The Future
Goal: Forecast The Future Financial Statements
, 1. income statement forecast: concern operating activities (“sales” most important)
2. balance sheet forecast: concern the impact of the operating, investing, and financing
activities on the resources and obligations of a firm two tasks:
a. forecast the resources and obligations necessary to sustain the forecasted operating
activities from our income statement
i. operating activities require investments in working capital, long-term capital,
and obligations
b. forecast the resources and obligations associated with the firm’s financing activities
(e.g. financial resources and non-equity financing)
involves determining the amount and mix of financing that is used to support the firm’s
operating and investing activities
3. cash flow forecast: cash flows represent the economic consequences of business activities
a. includes forecasts of the net cash distributions to equity holders
b. use income statements and balance sheet forecasts to construct cash flow forecasts
4. final step: apply the same ratio analysis and cash flow analysis to the pro forma financial
statements (= forecasted financial statements)
a. provides a reality check on the plausibility of the forecasts
valuation
1. cost of capital or discount rate: most important valuation parameter, but much
disagreement concerning the selection of an appropriate cost of capital
a. choose whether to discount the cash distributions directly to equity holders:
i. using the cost of equity capital; or
ii. whether to discount cash flows to all providers of capital (i.e. common
equity plus preferred stock and debt) using a weighted average cost of
capital and then subtract the value of the non-equity capital to derive equity
value
iii. both should give the same answer
2. valuation models done in eval
a. residual income models
b. discounted cash flow models
c. both should give the same answer
3. valuation ratios: communicates the value of the firm (e.g. price-to-earnings, peg)
4. complications:
a. negative equity values: real world stock prices cannot be negative
b. abandonment option: if the equity valuation is positive and the sensitivity analysis is
negative, then consider the abandonment option
c. possibility that a firm may create or destroy value through transactions in its own
mispriced securities
d. contingent equity claims: provide holders with the option to purchase shares of
common stock for a pre-specified exercise price, can result in new equity securities
being issued for consideration less than fair value
chapter 2: information collection
introduction
- a forecast is only as good as the information that is used to construct it so, the more
relevant information you collect, the more accurate the forecast will be
3
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Dit document is auteursrechtelijk beschermd, het verspreiden van dit document is strafbaar.
5th edition
Equity Valuation & Analysis Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
Overview Of Business Activities
The Valuation Of An Equity Security Must Begin With A Thorough Analysis Of The Entity’s Underlying
Business Activities. Business Activities Can Be Divided Into Three Broad Categories:
1. Operating Activities
a. Activities That Are Directly Related To The Provision Of Goods And Services To Customers
b. Primary Means Through Which The Owners Of The Business Hope To Make A Profit
2. Investing Activities:
a. Purchases And Sales Of Resources That Provide Productive Capacity With Respect To
The Nature Of The Goods And Services That The Firm Is In The Business Of Providing
(E.G. Buying An Oven Is An Operating Activity For A Cooking Equipment Retailer, But
An Investing Activity For A Restaurant)
b. Involves Resource Commitments That Are Expected To Provide Benefits Over
Long Periods Of Time
c. The Investments A Company Makes Today May Be Used To Support Future
Operating Activities That Differ From The Current Operating Activities (E.G. Entering
A New Line Of Business)
d. In The Long Run, Operating And Investing Activities Are Closely Linked
3. Financing Activities
a. A Firm Can Finance The Operating And Investing Activities In Many Different
Ways Without Affecting The Nature Of The Activities
b. Firm Can Add Value To Create The Opportunity For The Owners Of The Business
To Leverage The Return From Their Operating And Investing Activities, To
Minimize Taxes And Transactions Costs, And To Exploit Inefficiencies In Capital
Markets
Overview Of Equity Valuation Theory
Equity Securities Are Financial Instruments And Their Value Is Equal To Net Present Value Of The
Future Cash Distributions. The Valuation Model Of Equity:
1. Value Of Equity As The Net Present Value Of The Expected Future Dividend Payments =
The Dividend-Discounting Model
∞
( )
Cash Dividend
P0=∑
T =1 (1+R )T
P0 = The Value Of The Common Equity At Time 0
Cash Dividend = Expected Amount Of Cash Dividends To Be Paid In Period
T R = Discount Rate
2. Value Of Equity As Net Present Value Of The Expected Future Dividend Payments
Including Stock Repurchases And Equity Issuances
∞
P0=∑
T =1 ( Cash Dividend+ Stock Repurchases−Equity Issuances
(1+R )T )
, Stock Repurchases = Amount Of Cash To Be Paid Out Via Stock Repurchases In Period T
Equity Issuances = Amount Of Cash To Be Raised Via Equity Issuances In Period T
Cash Dividend + Stock Repurchases – Equity Issuance = Net Distribution To Equity Holders
Equity Holders Are The Owners Of The Business And Have The Residual Claim On The Net Cash
Flows
Available From A Business’s Operating, Investing, And Non-Equity Financing Activities. But In Reality, The
,Distributions To Equity Holders Are Made At The Discretion Of Management, Based On A Variety Of
Factors. The Cash Flows Generated By Business’s Operating Activities Are The Key Driver Of
Distributions To Equity Holders
The Role Of Financial Statements
Role Of Financial Statements Is To Provide A Detailed Description Of The Financial Consequences Of
A Firm’s Historical Business Activities Financial Statements Summarize The Past Operating,
Investing And Financing Activities Of A Firm, And Show How These Activities Affect The Past, Present
And Expected Future Cash Flows. Financial Statements Have Two Roles In The Forecast:
1. Provide The Language For Translating Forecasts Of Future Business Activities Into
Forecast Of Future Cash Flows
a. Provide Information On How The Various Operating, Investing, And Financing
Activities Of A Firm Combine To Produce Cash Flows
2. Provide A Good Starting Point For Forecasting The Cash Flow Implications Of Future
Business Activities By Describing The Cash Flow Implications Of Past Business Activities
a. For The Forecast, Start With The Past Financial Statements And Then Modify
Those Statements Based On The Changes That Are Anticipated
b. However, Past Financial Statements Can Be A Poor Predictor In E.G. Start-Ups And
Firms That Make Significant Changes In Their Business Activities
Three Steps Of Equity Valuation
The Equity Valuation Process Can Be Divided Into Three Distinct Steps:
1. Understanding The Past
a. Need To Understand The Firm’s Financial Results In The Context Of Its Business
Strategy And The Industry And Economy In Which It Operates
2. Forecasting The Future
a. Forecasting The Financial Statements From Which The Estimates Of Future
Cash Distributions To Equity Holders Will Be Derived
3. Valuation
a. Convert The Estimates Of Future Distributions To Equity Holders In A Single Estimate
Of Firm Value
Understanding The Past
1. Information Collection
2. Understanding The Business: Aimed At Developing A Detailed Understanding Of The
Business Activities The Firm Is Engaged In (E.G. What Does The Business Make And How,
Competitors, Industry, Business Strategy)
3. Accounting Analysis: To Develop A Thorough Understanding Of How The Economic
Consequences Of Firm’s Business Activities Are Reflected In The Financial Statements And
Helps You Understand The Key Strengths And Weaknesses Of The Statement
a. Net Cash Flows Of A Firm Over Short Periods Of Time Provide A Noisy Signal Of The
Long- Run Cash Flow Consequences Of A Firm’s Business Activities Solution:
Accrual Accounting: Objective Is To Provide A Better Indication Of The Long-Run
Cash Flow Consequences Of A Firm’s Short-Run Business Activities
4. Financial Ratio Analysis: Show How The Components Of A Firm’s Financial Statements
Interact To Produce The Overall Financial Performance (E.G. Which Profit Margin, How Much
Investment Is Required To Generate The Sales) Identify The Key Drivers Of Financial
Performance
5. Cash Flow Analysis: Understanding The Cash Flows From A Firm’s Operating, Investing,
And Financing Activities
Forecasting The Future
Goal: Forecast The Future Financial Statements
, 1. income statement forecast: concern operating activities (“sales” most important)
2. balance sheet forecast: concern the impact of the operating, investing, and financing
activities on the resources and obligations of a firm two tasks:
a. forecast the resources and obligations necessary to sustain the forecasted operating
activities from our income statement
i. operating activities require investments in working capital, long-term capital,
and obligations
b. forecast the resources and obligations associated with the firm’s financing activities
(e.g. financial resources and non-equity financing)
involves determining the amount and mix of financing that is used to support the firm’s
operating and investing activities
3. cash flow forecast: cash flows represent the economic consequences of business activities
a. includes forecasts of the net cash distributions to equity holders
b. use income statements and balance sheet forecasts to construct cash flow forecasts
4. final step: apply the same ratio analysis and cash flow analysis to the pro forma financial
statements (= forecasted financial statements)
a. provides a reality check on the plausibility of the forecasts
valuation
1. cost of capital or discount rate: most important valuation parameter, but much
disagreement concerning the selection of an appropriate cost of capital
a. choose whether to discount the cash distributions directly to equity holders:
i. using the cost of equity capital; or
ii. whether to discount cash flows to all providers of capital (i.e. common
equity plus preferred stock and debt) using a weighted average cost of
capital and then subtract the value of the non-equity capital to derive equity
value
iii. both should give the same answer
2. valuation models done in eval
a. residual income models
b. discounted cash flow models
c. both should give the same answer
3. valuation ratios: communicates the value of the firm (e.g. price-to-earnings, peg)
4. complications:
a. negative equity values: real world stock prices cannot be negative
b. abandonment option: if the equity valuation is positive and the sensitivity analysis is
negative, then consider the abandonment option
c. possibility that a firm may create or destroy value through transactions in its own
mispriced securities
d. contingent equity claims: provide holders with the option to purchase shares of
common stock for a pre-specified exercise price, can result in new equity securities
being issued for consideration less than fair value
chapter 2: information collection
introduction
- a forecast is only as good as the information that is used to construct it so, the more
relevant information you collect, the more accurate the forecast will be
3
Gedownload door: floormuyres |
Dit document is auteursrechtelijk beschermd, het verspreiden van dit document is strafbaar.
