ChapterG03G-GForecasting
ChapterG03
Forecasting
GG
TrueG/GFalseGQuestions
G
1.GForecastingGtechniquesGgenerallyGassumeGanGexistingGcausalGsystemGthatGwillGcontinueGt
oGexistGinGtheGfuture.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
2.GForGnewGproductsGinGaGstrongGgrowthGmode,GaGlowGalphaGwillGminimizeGforecastGerrors
GwhenGusingGexponentialGsmoothingGtechniques.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3.GOnceGacceptedGbyGmanagers,GforecastsGshouldGbeGheldGfirmGregardlessGofGnewGinputGsin
ceGmanyGplansGhaveGbeenGmadeGusingGtheGoriginalGforecast.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
4.GForecastsGforGgroupsGofGitemsGtendGtoGbeGlessGaccurateGthanGforecastsGforGindividualGite
msGbecauseGforecastsGforGindividualGitemsGdon'tGincludeGasGmanyGinfluencingGfactors.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
5.GForecastsGhelpGmanagersGplanGbothGtheGsystemGitselfGandGprovideGvaluableGinformationG
forGusingGtheGsystem.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
6.GOrganizationsGthatGareGcapableGofGrespondingGquicklyGtoGchangingGrequirementsGcanGus
eGaGshorterGforecastGhorizonGandGthereforeGbenefitGfromGmoreGaccurateGforecasts.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-1
,ChapterG03G-GForecasting
7.GWhenGnewGproductsGorGservicesGareGintroduced,GfocusGforecastingGmodelsGareGanGattract
iveGoption.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
8.GTheGpurposeGofGtheGforecastGshouldGbeGestablishedGfirstGsoGthatGtheGlevelGofGdetail,Gamo
untGofGresources,GandGaccuracyGlevelGcanGbeGunderstood.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
9.GForecastsGbasedGonGtimeGseriesG(historical)GdataGareGreferredGtoGasGassociativeGforecasts.
G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
10.GTimeGseriesGtechniquesGinvolveGidentificationGofGexplanatoryGvariablesGthatGcanGbeGuse
dGtoGpredictGfutureGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
11.GAGconsumerGsurveyGisGanGeasyGandGsureGwayGtoGobtainGaccurateGinputGfromGfutureGcus
tomersGsinceGmostGpeopleGenjoyGparticipatingGinGsurveys.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
12.GTheGDelphiGapproachGinvolvesGtheGuseGofGaGseriesGofGquestionnairesGtoGachieveGaGcons
ensusGforecast.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
13.GExponentialGsmoothingGaddsGaGpercentageG(calledGalpha)GofGlastGperiod'sGforecastGtoGes
timateGnextGperiod'sGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-2
,ChapterG03G-GForecasting
14.GTheGshorterGtheGforecastGperiod,GtheGmoreGaccuratelyGtheGforecastsGtendGtoGtrackGwhatG
actuallyGhappens.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
15.GForecastingGtechniquesGthatGareGbasedGonGtimeGseriesGdataGassumeGthatGfutureGvaluesGo
fGtheGseriesGwillGduplicateGpastGvalues.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
16.GTrendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothingGusesGdoubleGsmoothingGtoGaddGtwiceGtheGforeca
stGerrorGtoGlastGperiod'sGactualGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
17.GForecastsGbasedGonGanGaverageGtendGtoGexhibitGlessGvariabilityGthanGtheGoriginalGdata.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
18.GTheGnaiveGapproachGtoGforecastingGrequiresGaGlinearGtrendGline.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
19.GTheGnaiveGforecastGisGlimitedGinGitsGapplicationGtoGseriesGthatGreflectGnoGtrendGorGseaso
nality.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
20.GTheGnaiveGforecastGcanGserveGasGaGquickGandGeasyGstandardGofGcomparisonGagainstGwh
ichGtoGjudgeGtheGcostGandGaccuracyGofGotherGtechniques.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
21.GAGmovingGaverageGforecastGtendsGtoGbeGmoreGresponsiveGtoGchangesGinGtheGdataGseries
GwhenGmoreGdataGpointsGareGincludedGinGtheGaverage.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-3
, ChapterG03G-GForecasting
22.GInGorderGtoGupdateGaGmovingGaverageGforecast,GtheGvaluesGofGeachGdataGpointGinGtheGa
verageGmustGbeGknown.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
23.GForecastsGofGfutureGdemandGareGusedGbyGoperationsGpeopleGtoGplanGcapacity.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
24.GAnGadvantageGofGaGweightedGmovingGaverageGisGthatGrecentGactualGresultsGcanGbeGgive
nGmoreGimportanceGthanGwhatGoccurredGaGwhileGago.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
25.GExponentialGsmoothingGisGaGformGofGweightedGaveraging.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
26.GAGsmoothingGconstantGofG.1GwillGcauseGanGexponentialGsmoothingGforecastGtoGreactGmo
reGquicklyGtoGaGsuddenGchangeGthanGaGsmoothingGconstantGvalueGofG.3.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
27.GTheGTGinGtheGmodelGTAFG=GS+TGrepresentsGtheGtimeGdimensionG(whichGisGusuallyGex
pressedGinGweeksGorGmonths).G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
28.GTrendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothingGrequiresGselectionGofGtwoGsmoothingGconstants.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
29.GAnGadvantageGofG"trendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothing"GoverGtheG"linearGtrendGequati
on"GisGitsGabilityGtoGadjustGoverGtimeGtoGchangesGinGtheGtrend.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-4
ChapterG03
Forecasting
GG
TrueG/GFalseGQuestions
G
1.GForecastingGtechniquesGgenerallyGassumeGanGexistingGcausalGsystemGthatGwillGcontinueGt
oGexistGinGtheGfuture.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
2.GForGnewGproductsGinGaGstrongGgrowthGmode,GaGlowGalphaGwillGminimizeGforecastGerrors
GwhenGusingGexponentialGsmoothingGtechniques.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3.GOnceGacceptedGbyGmanagers,GforecastsGshouldGbeGheldGfirmGregardlessGofGnewGinputGsin
ceGmanyGplansGhaveGbeenGmadeGusingGtheGoriginalGforecast.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
4.GForecastsGforGgroupsGofGitemsGtendGtoGbeGlessGaccurateGthanGforecastsGforGindividualGite
msGbecauseGforecastsGforGindividualGitemsGdon'tGincludeGasGmanyGinfluencingGfactors.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
5.GForecastsGhelpGmanagersGplanGbothGtheGsystemGitselfGandGprovideGvaluableGinformationG
forGusingGtheGsystem.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
6.GOrganizationsGthatGareGcapableGofGrespondingGquicklyGtoGchangingGrequirementsGcanGus
eGaGshorterGforecastGhorizonGandGthereforeGbenefitGfromGmoreGaccurateGforecasts.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-1
,ChapterG03G-GForecasting
7.GWhenGnewGproductsGorGservicesGareGintroduced,GfocusGforecastingGmodelsGareGanGattract
iveGoption.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
8.GTheGpurposeGofGtheGforecastGshouldGbeGestablishedGfirstGsoGthatGtheGlevelGofGdetail,Gamo
untGofGresources,GandGaccuracyGlevelGcanGbeGunderstood.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
9.GForecastsGbasedGonGtimeGseriesG(historical)GdataGareGreferredGtoGasGassociativeGforecasts.
G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
10.GTimeGseriesGtechniquesGinvolveGidentificationGofGexplanatoryGvariablesGthatGcanGbeGuse
dGtoGpredictGfutureGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
11.GAGconsumerGsurveyGisGanGeasyGandGsureGwayGtoGobtainGaccurateGinputGfromGfutureGcus
tomersGsinceGmostGpeopleGenjoyGparticipatingGinGsurveys.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
12.GTheGDelphiGapproachGinvolvesGtheGuseGofGaGseriesGofGquestionnairesGtoGachieveGaGcons
ensusGforecast.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
13.GExponentialGsmoothingGaddsGaGpercentageG(calledGalpha)GofGlastGperiod'sGforecastGtoGes
timateGnextGperiod'sGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-2
,ChapterG03G-GForecasting
14.GTheGshorterGtheGforecastGperiod,GtheGmoreGaccuratelyGtheGforecastsGtendGtoGtrackGwhatG
actuallyGhappens.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
15.GForecastingGtechniquesGthatGareGbasedGonGtimeGseriesGdataGassumeGthatGfutureGvaluesGo
fGtheGseriesGwillGduplicateGpastGvalues.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
16.GTrendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothingGusesGdoubleGsmoothingGtoGaddGtwiceGtheGforeca
stGerrorGtoGlastGperiod'sGactualGdemand.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
17.GForecastsGbasedGonGanGaverageGtendGtoGexhibitGlessGvariabilityGthanGtheGoriginalGdata.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
18.GTheGnaiveGapproachGtoGforecastingGrequiresGaGlinearGtrendGline.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
19.GTheGnaiveGforecastGisGlimitedGinGitsGapplicationGtoGseriesGthatGreflectGnoGtrendGorGseaso
nality.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
20.GTheGnaiveGforecastGcanGserveGasGaGquickGandGeasyGstandardGofGcomparisonGagainstGwh
ichGtoGjudgeGtheGcostGandGaccuracyGofGotherGtechniques.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
21.GAGmovingGaverageGforecastGtendsGtoGbeGmoreGresponsiveGtoGchangesGinGtheGdataGseries
GwhenGmoreGdataGpointsGareGincludedGinGtheGaverage.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-3
, ChapterG03G-GForecasting
22.GInGorderGtoGupdateGaGmovingGaverageGforecast,GtheGvaluesGofGeachGdataGpointGinGtheGa
verageGmustGbeGknown.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
23.GForecastsGofGfutureGdemandGareGusedGbyGoperationsGpeopleGtoGplanGcapacity.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
24.GAnGadvantageGofGaGweightedGmovingGaverageGisGthatGrecentGactualGresultsGcanGbeGgive
nGmoreGimportanceGthanGwhatGoccurredGaGwhileGago.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
25.GExponentialGsmoothingGisGaGformGofGweightedGaveraging.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
26.GAGsmoothingGconstantGofG.1GwillGcauseGanGexponentialGsmoothingGforecastGtoGreactGmo
reGquicklyGtoGaGsuddenGchangeGthanGaGsmoothingGconstantGvalueGofG.3.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
27.GTheGTGinGtheGmodelGTAFG=GS+TGrepresentsGtheGtimeGdimensionG(whichGisGusuallyGex
pressedGinGweeksGorGmonths).G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
28.GTrendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothingGrequiresGselectionGofGtwoGsmoothingGconstants.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
29.GAnGadvantageGofG"trendGadjustedGexponentialGsmoothing"GoverGtheG"linearGtrendGequati
on"GisGitsGabilityGtoGadjustGoverGtimeGtoGchangesGinGtheGtrend.G
TrueGGGGFalse
G
3-4