Dangerousness & Risk Assessment
● Dangerousness: a legal construct related to whether or not a person is now or could be
in the future a danger to society
● Contains 3 distinct constructs:
○ Risk factors
■ Variables associated with the probability that violence or aggression will
occur
○ Harm
■ Nature and severity of predicted and actual aggression
○ Risk level
■ Probability of repeat offense based on risk factors and harm
Risk Assessments
● A systematic process of evaluating the potential risks that some activity may occur
● Approaches to Forensic Risk Assessment
○ Unstructured Clinical Judgements
■ Appraising an individual's risk for violence is based primarily on
professional opinion, intuition, and clinical experience of evaluator
■ In general, tends to be more informal and subjective than other
approaches
■ Pros
● Permits flexibility
● Widespread applicability
● Decisions
■ Cons
● Low interrater reliability
● Low content validity
● Low predictive validity
● Susceptibility to biases and heuristics
■ "In one study after another, the same conclusion emerges: For every
correct prediction of violence, there are numerous incorrect predictions."
○ Actuarial Assessments
■ Use of mathematical formulas to predict likelihood that someone will be
violent
■ Relies on empirical item selection
■ Considered to be algorithmic, mechanical, well-specified, and
reproducible
■ Criminogenic Risk on Youth Level of Service/Case Management
Inventory (YLS/CMI)
● Prior offense
● Family
● Education
● Peers
● Substance Use
● Dangerousness: a legal construct related to whether or not a person is now or could be
in the future a danger to society
● Contains 3 distinct constructs:
○ Risk factors
■ Variables associated with the probability that violence or aggression will
occur
○ Harm
■ Nature and severity of predicted and actual aggression
○ Risk level
■ Probability of repeat offense based on risk factors and harm
Risk Assessments
● A systematic process of evaluating the potential risks that some activity may occur
● Approaches to Forensic Risk Assessment
○ Unstructured Clinical Judgements
■ Appraising an individual's risk for violence is based primarily on
professional opinion, intuition, and clinical experience of evaluator
■ In general, tends to be more informal and subjective than other
approaches
■ Pros
● Permits flexibility
● Widespread applicability
● Decisions
■ Cons
● Low interrater reliability
● Low content validity
● Low predictive validity
● Susceptibility to biases and heuristics
■ "In one study after another, the same conclusion emerges: For every
correct prediction of violence, there are numerous incorrect predictions."
○ Actuarial Assessments
■ Use of mathematical formulas to predict likelihood that someone will be
violent
■ Relies on empirical item selection
■ Considered to be algorithmic, mechanical, well-specified, and
reproducible
■ Criminogenic Risk on Youth Level of Service/Case Management
Inventory (YLS/CMI)
● Prior offense
● Family
● Education
● Peers
● Substance Use
