Lecture 1. Introduction and Risk society.....................................................3
Paper 1.1 Bostrom et al 2018...................................................................7
Paper 1.2 Ekberg 2007...........................................................................12
Lecture 2. Cognitive perspectives on risk..................................................17
Paper 2.1 Helm & Reyna 2018................................................................24
Paper 2.2 Reyna 2012............................................................................28
Lecture 3. Emotional perspectives on risk.................................................33
Paper 3.1 Tompkins et al 2018...............................................................38
Paper 3.2 Raue & Scholl 2018................................................................45
Paper 3.3 Zikmund-Fisher et al 2010......................................................50
Lecture 4. Strategic and social risk communication..................................52
Paper 4.1 Gurabardhi et al 2005............................................................61
Paper 4.2 Oude lanskink et al 2018........................................................62
Lecture 5. Media and risk..........................................................................67
Paper 5.1 Klemm et al 2016...................................................................75
Paper 5.2 Guo & Bai 2023......................................................................77
Lecture 6. Risk messages 1.......................................................................80
Paper 6.1 Hoffrage & Garcia-Retamero 2018.........................................86
Paper 6.2 Vromans et al 2020................................................................89
Paper 6.3 Gigerenzer et al 2009.............................................................91
Lecture 7. Risk messages 2 (visual risk communication)..........................93
Paper 7.1 Garcia-Retamero & Cokely 2017..........................................101
Paper 7.2 Zikmund-Fisher 2019............................................................107
Lecture 8. Uncertainty communication and trust....................................111
Paper 8.1 Joslyn & LeClerc 2013...........................................................117
Paper 8.2 Kerr et al 2023......................................................................119
Lecture 9. Individual differences and risk 1.............................................123
Paper 9.1 Garcia-Retamero & Galesic 2010.........................................129
Paper 9.2 Peters 2009..........................................................................132
Paper 9.3 Peters 2012..........................................................................134
Lecture 10. Individual differences and risk 2...........................................137
Paper 10.1 Nolte & Hanoch 2024.........................................................140
Paper 10.2 Chauvin 2018.....................................................................142
,Lecture 11. Review session and Q&A......................................................145
,Lecture 1. Introduction and Risk society
Why good risk communication matters:
Third-generation oral contraceptive pills increase the risk of potentially life-threatening blood clots
in the legs or lungs twofold – that is, by 100%.
Vs.
Third-generation oral contraceptive pills increase the risk of potentially life-threatening blood clots
in the legs or lungs from 1 in 7000 women, to 2 in 7000 women.
There are multiple definitions of risks however they are overlapping.
Risk= the likelihood of an unwanted event (probability) and the magnitude of the consequences
(severity). Probability x Severity.
Risk vs. Hazard (gevaar): if you don't perform a particular act when there is a hazard, then a
particular risk will not be apparent. E.g. it is hazardous to stand walk on the edge of a building but
there is no risk if you just don't fall. The risk comes apparent when you take a misstep (the act).
Possibility vs. Probability:
Risk vs. Uncertainty.
Levels of uncertainty:
- First-order/aleatory uncertainty: things we can't know.
- Second-order/epistemic uncertainty: things we don't know.
Uncertainty are limitations in calculating the risks. There are always limitations in the mathematical
models because there are always predictors/mediators that cannot be calculated.
There are known knowns: things we know that we know. There are also known unknows: things that
we know we don't know. And there are unknowns: things we do not know we don't know.
Risk communication= the interactive process of exchange of knowledge, perceptions, attitude, and
opinions related to risks between individuals, groups, and institutions.
The model of communication:
, Sociological notion describes the societal context in which we currently live as a risk society: the
management of all risks citizens may run. The welfare state brought prosperity and process, but now
this progress may turn against us: nuclear weapons, food consumption and obesity, health impact
and social impact of screen time, etc. Risks are socially constructed.
Welfare state= a system of government that actively promotes the well-being and social security of
its citizens through the provision of various social services, benefits, and economic interventions.
1st stage of modernization: industrial modernity
- Production of material wealth/goods
- The avoidance of scarcity
- Control over nature
- Risks are temporarily and physically bound
- Risks are direct, visible, and fixable
- Started with enlightenment
2nd stage of modernization: reflexive modernity/risk society
- Production of safety and knowledge
- The avoidance of risk
- The preservation of nature
- Dynamic and enduring global risks
- Risks are mediated, invisible and irreversible
- Started at the end of the cold war
VUCA world:
Volatility (wisselvalligheid)= a fancy word for change
Uncertainty= able to plan on the risk (e.g. covid)
Complexity= multiple causes, how many stakeholders are involved? (e.g. covid)
Ambiguity (meerduidigheid)= maybe not knowing what causes the risk
Paper 1.1 Bostrom et al 2018...................................................................7
Paper 1.2 Ekberg 2007...........................................................................12
Lecture 2. Cognitive perspectives on risk..................................................17
Paper 2.1 Helm & Reyna 2018................................................................24
Paper 2.2 Reyna 2012............................................................................28
Lecture 3. Emotional perspectives on risk.................................................33
Paper 3.1 Tompkins et al 2018...............................................................38
Paper 3.2 Raue & Scholl 2018................................................................45
Paper 3.3 Zikmund-Fisher et al 2010......................................................50
Lecture 4. Strategic and social risk communication..................................52
Paper 4.1 Gurabardhi et al 2005............................................................61
Paper 4.2 Oude lanskink et al 2018........................................................62
Lecture 5. Media and risk..........................................................................67
Paper 5.1 Klemm et al 2016...................................................................75
Paper 5.2 Guo & Bai 2023......................................................................77
Lecture 6. Risk messages 1.......................................................................80
Paper 6.1 Hoffrage & Garcia-Retamero 2018.........................................86
Paper 6.2 Vromans et al 2020................................................................89
Paper 6.3 Gigerenzer et al 2009.............................................................91
Lecture 7. Risk messages 2 (visual risk communication)..........................93
Paper 7.1 Garcia-Retamero & Cokely 2017..........................................101
Paper 7.2 Zikmund-Fisher 2019............................................................107
Lecture 8. Uncertainty communication and trust....................................111
Paper 8.1 Joslyn & LeClerc 2013...........................................................117
Paper 8.2 Kerr et al 2023......................................................................119
Lecture 9. Individual differences and risk 1.............................................123
Paper 9.1 Garcia-Retamero & Galesic 2010.........................................129
Paper 9.2 Peters 2009..........................................................................132
Paper 9.3 Peters 2012..........................................................................134
Lecture 10. Individual differences and risk 2...........................................137
Paper 10.1 Nolte & Hanoch 2024.........................................................140
Paper 10.2 Chauvin 2018.....................................................................142
,Lecture 11. Review session and Q&A......................................................145
,Lecture 1. Introduction and Risk society
Why good risk communication matters:
Third-generation oral contraceptive pills increase the risk of potentially life-threatening blood clots
in the legs or lungs twofold – that is, by 100%.
Vs.
Third-generation oral contraceptive pills increase the risk of potentially life-threatening blood clots
in the legs or lungs from 1 in 7000 women, to 2 in 7000 women.
There are multiple definitions of risks however they are overlapping.
Risk= the likelihood of an unwanted event (probability) and the magnitude of the consequences
(severity). Probability x Severity.
Risk vs. Hazard (gevaar): if you don't perform a particular act when there is a hazard, then a
particular risk will not be apparent. E.g. it is hazardous to stand walk on the edge of a building but
there is no risk if you just don't fall. The risk comes apparent when you take a misstep (the act).
Possibility vs. Probability:
Risk vs. Uncertainty.
Levels of uncertainty:
- First-order/aleatory uncertainty: things we can't know.
- Second-order/epistemic uncertainty: things we don't know.
Uncertainty are limitations in calculating the risks. There are always limitations in the mathematical
models because there are always predictors/mediators that cannot be calculated.
There are known knowns: things we know that we know. There are also known unknows: things that
we know we don't know. And there are unknowns: things we do not know we don't know.
Risk communication= the interactive process of exchange of knowledge, perceptions, attitude, and
opinions related to risks between individuals, groups, and institutions.
The model of communication:
, Sociological notion describes the societal context in which we currently live as a risk society: the
management of all risks citizens may run. The welfare state brought prosperity and process, but now
this progress may turn against us: nuclear weapons, food consumption and obesity, health impact
and social impact of screen time, etc. Risks are socially constructed.
Welfare state= a system of government that actively promotes the well-being and social security of
its citizens through the provision of various social services, benefits, and economic interventions.
1st stage of modernization: industrial modernity
- Production of material wealth/goods
- The avoidance of scarcity
- Control over nature
- Risks are temporarily and physically bound
- Risks are direct, visible, and fixable
- Started with enlightenment
2nd stage of modernization: reflexive modernity/risk society
- Production of safety and knowledge
- The avoidance of risk
- The preservation of nature
- Dynamic and enduring global risks
- Risks are mediated, invisible and irreversible
- Started at the end of the cold war
VUCA world:
Volatility (wisselvalligheid)= a fancy word for change
Uncertainty= able to plan on the risk (e.g. covid)
Complexity= multiple causes, how many stakeholders are involved? (e.g. covid)
Ambiguity (meerduidigheid)= maybe not knowing what causes the risk
