economic history

intro to demographic transition - ANS -the story of the 20th century was one of massive demographic growth -within the lifetime of just our parents the population has over doubled -3 billion in 1960 -7 billion in 2018 -9 billion projection in 2050 stage one of population growth - ANS -classic Malthusian trap of nature -this is typically very primitive societies trapped with the issue of not having enough food -high birth rates and high death rates -high death rates because of diseases and lack of food -high birth rates were as a result of high death rates...families want kids to reach adulthood so they can contribute to the family and care for their parents when they are older stage two of population growth - ANS -the death rate declines due to the fact that the infant mortality rate decreases -the birth rate remains the same -there is a delay in the birth rate declining because it takes time for families to realize the economic burden of raising more children -population of course begins to rise with birth rate death rate stage three of population growth - ANS -the birth rate now begins to decline, as families begin to see the economic burden of having more children -population of course grows as aforementioned stage four of population growth - ANS -the population begins to stabilize as the birth rate and the death rate converge -the number of babies women have on average goes down from 7.1 to 2 outcomes of demographic transition - ANS -emergence of the nuclear family...two parents two kids -higher life expectancy because of lower death rates -changing role of women due to the fact that she now only raises 2 kids on average in comparison to 7 -this idea is similar to the washing machine -urbanization occurs with population growth -democratization also went hand in hand with demographic growth in rich countries -one other thing to note, once demographic transition begins it cannot be stopped number of children per woman in countries - ANS UK - 1.9 peru - 2.3 bangladesh - 2.1 indonesia - 2.2 iran - 1.9 -most regions have a fertility rate of 2, with the exception of sub saharan africa, which is lagging behind with higher fertility rate how long does it take to reduce the fertility rate - ANS -it depends on the country -UK it took 95 years -US it took 82 years -china it only took 11 years -this was due to the advantage of backwardness what causes population growth - ANS -weighing the costs and benefits of having another child, one can see the reason for population growth -tfr = total fertility rate benefits of having an additional child - ANS -psychological benefit -higher social status...attached with family size and gender balance -insurance at the old age...the child would be able to care for the parent -hedge against the death of siblings -all of these benefits are more prominent in less modern socieities costs of having an additional child - ANS -direct costs of food, clothing, education -opportunity cost of the income forgone...aka giving up the income that could have been earned by that additional child factors driving fertility reduction - ANS -infant mortality decline...reducing the preference for number of children -income growth...increasing preference for quality over quantity of children -economists and demographers dispute over the importance of economic growth as a necessary factor for fertility reduction -improvements in contraception -female labor force participation...increasing the indirect cost of children, as the mother is losing money caring for the kid rather than working -education...leads to reduction in the preference for having more kids -urbanisation...leads to kids being more of an investment good -reduction in child labor...reducing the preference for more kids is income growth necessary for fertility reduction - ANS -demographers argue income growth is not necessary for fertility rate reduction