COGS 170 Exam 1 Questions with Correct Answers

COGS 170 Exam 1 Questions with Correct Answers What is JDM? - ANSWER judgement and decision making -the study of intuitive statistics -the study of human decision making behavior, formal decision models, and the differences between the two Normative models of JDM -what are they -the goals -where do they originate - ANSWER -they are mathematical models that allow us to evaluate a judgement -goal-compare and improve judgements to standards that allow evaluations -originate from probability theory, utility theory, and statistics descriptive models - ANSWER psychological theories that try to explain how people make judgements and decisions -determine whether biases exist, we can use descriptive theories to explain them -model the process of making the decision prescriptive models - ANSWER -designs for improvement and help us to eliminate biases -mathematical tools to formally analyze decisions -compromise between normative and descriptive models ideal plan of JDM - ANSWER 1. apply nromative models of judgement and decision 2. look for possible biases 3. use the tools of psychology to understand the nature of biases (descriptive models) 4. develop approaches to improve them (prescriptive models) 5 main categories of normative models - ANSWER 1. quantitative judgement- can usually quantify departures from the right answer 2. judgements of probability-applied to a group of judgements of unique events and use formula to score 3. probabilities of related unique events-can assess their agreement with each other (has to add up to 1) 4. decisions- assess their consistency with the basic principles of decision making, such as dominance 5. set of decisions-assesss the coherency of a set of decisions using a mathematical model to define coherence, expected (EUT) expected utility theory (EUT) - ANSWER -analysis of acts, states of the world, outcomes, and utility derived from the outcome -there is a utility for each individual for each outcome and probabilities for the states -expected utility = determined from the probabilities of the states and the utilities of the outcomes