Week 1
Lecture: Introduction
No science without methods
- methods allow replication. replication is key in science
- methods give credibility
Practical: Where have all the criminals gone?
In this chapter they try to explain the sudden crime drop in America. Because from 1960 on
the crime rate was rising and in 1990 the crime rate suddenly dropped. So why did it
suddenly drop?
Theory 1: Strong economy
The decline in crime that began in the early 1990s was accompanied by a blistering national
economy and a significant drop in unemployment. It might seem to follow that the economy
was a hammer that helped beat down crime.
→ So the economy thrived and unemployment went down thus people were less
likely to commit crime.
If the economy is weak, there is a lot more unemployment and the crime rates rise because
people can’t make a living for themselves and are forced to steal, to make ends meet.
Critique:
This argument only holds for robbery and theft but not for more violent crimes like murder.
So this theory doesn’t explain the drop in violent crimes.
Theory 2: Increased reliance on prisons
Between 1980 and 2000 there was a fifteen fold increase in the number of people sent to
prison. People who would have previously been set free were instead locked up.
→ If you are already in prison you can’t commit another crime.
Critique: it certainly explains a portion of the sudden crime drop but it only accounts for one
third.
Theory 3: More capital punishment
1
, → Executions in the US quadrupled between the 1980s and 1990s.
This should deter people from committing a crime. If you punish people harder, people will
be more afraid of punishment.
Also if people are dead they can’t commit a crime.
Critique:
Even though capital punishment quadrupled within a decade, there were still only 478
executions in the US. Executing one criminal translates into seven fewer homicides. So this
only explains one twenty-fifth of the drop in homicides in the 1990s.
As a criminal the chances of dying are very high, especially members of gangs. and it is
safer to be on death row. so it is safer to be in prison than to be on the street thus you better
commit the crime.
Death row is usually only for murder. and murder is something that isn’t rational. This
accounts for most violent crimes.
Theory 4: More police
In the US elections to make sure to be popular they spent more money on policing. So
always before elections mayors and other people with power spend more money on policing
and put more people in jail.
Critique:
Yes it indeed helps to capture more criminals that would otherwise not have been caught.
But it only accounts for roughly ten percent of the 1990s crime drop.
Theory 5: Innovative policing
Broken window theory: if you are in a messy environment, you are likely to commit crimes
because you think nobody cares.
The second is that if you are not arrested or punished for the small bad things you will
eventually commit bigger crimes.
Critique:
Crime went down before Rudolph Guiliani became mayor (who enforced the broken window
theory).
If it was really this new strategy of the police in New york then only the crime rate in NY
should drop but it dropped everywhere.
Theory 6: Tougher gun laws
2
Lecture: Introduction
No science without methods
- methods allow replication. replication is key in science
- methods give credibility
Practical: Where have all the criminals gone?
In this chapter they try to explain the sudden crime drop in America. Because from 1960 on
the crime rate was rising and in 1990 the crime rate suddenly dropped. So why did it
suddenly drop?
Theory 1: Strong economy
The decline in crime that began in the early 1990s was accompanied by a blistering national
economy and a significant drop in unemployment. It might seem to follow that the economy
was a hammer that helped beat down crime.
→ So the economy thrived and unemployment went down thus people were less
likely to commit crime.
If the economy is weak, there is a lot more unemployment and the crime rates rise because
people can’t make a living for themselves and are forced to steal, to make ends meet.
Critique:
This argument only holds for robbery and theft but not for more violent crimes like murder.
So this theory doesn’t explain the drop in violent crimes.
Theory 2: Increased reliance on prisons
Between 1980 and 2000 there was a fifteen fold increase in the number of people sent to
prison. People who would have previously been set free were instead locked up.
→ If you are already in prison you can’t commit another crime.
Critique: it certainly explains a portion of the sudden crime drop but it only accounts for one
third.
Theory 3: More capital punishment
1
, → Executions in the US quadrupled between the 1980s and 1990s.
This should deter people from committing a crime. If you punish people harder, people will
be more afraid of punishment.
Also if people are dead they can’t commit a crime.
Critique:
Even though capital punishment quadrupled within a decade, there were still only 478
executions in the US. Executing one criminal translates into seven fewer homicides. So this
only explains one twenty-fifth of the drop in homicides in the 1990s.
As a criminal the chances of dying are very high, especially members of gangs. and it is
safer to be on death row. so it is safer to be in prison than to be on the street thus you better
commit the crime.
Death row is usually only for murder. and murder is something that isn’t rational. This
accounts for most violent crimes.
Theory 4: More police
In the US elections to make sure to be popular they spent more money on policing. So
always before elections mayors and other people with power spend more money on policing
and put more people in jail.
Critique:
Yes it indeed helps to capture more criminals that would otherwise not have been caught.
But it only accounts for roughly ten percent of the 1990s crime drop.
Theory 5: Innovative policing
Broken window theory: if you are in a messy environment, you are likely to commit crimes
because you think nobody cares.
The second is that if you are not arrested or punished for the small bad things you will
eventually commit bigger crimes.
Critique:
Crime went down before Rudolph Guiliani became mayor (who enforced the broken window
theory).
If it was really this new strategy of the police in New york then only the crime rate in NY
should drop but it dropped everywhere.
Theory 6: Tougher gun laws
2
