in the USA, one other developed country, and a developing country between 1960 and 2011.
Population Growth
Kenya started to go through stage three of the demographic transition from 1980 and is yet to
complete the demographic transition. Kenya’s birth rate remained consistently higher than the
world and developed rates. Kenya’s birth rate fell below developing Sub-Saharan African countries in
the late 1980’s and then continued to follow closely the other Sub-Saharan African countries’ trend.
Thus, Kenya’s birth rate pattern was typical of her region. Kenya’s birth rate started to decline
considerably from 1980. Kenya’s birth rate dropped greatly from 49.4 in 1980 to 42.4 in 1990. The
birth rate fell greatly again from 39.8 in 2000 to 35.1 in 2010. Similarly, Kenya’s fertility rate
remained much higher than the world and developed rates. However, Kenya’s fertility rate saw a
steady decline from 1980. The high birth rate and fertility rate which followed Sub-Saharan Africa’s
pattern indicates the probable causes. Poor access to and awareness of contraception due to poor
education and transport systems affected many regions within Kenya and more broadly across Sub-
Saharan Africa and explain the high fertility rates. Also, personal Kenyan values, like other Sub-
Saharan African values may also have contributed to the generally higher fertility rate compared to
the world rate. These values include many children as a masculinity sign and gender relations which
diminish women’s choice to have children. Foreign aid with contraception and infrastructure
improvements might explain the fertility rate decline from 1980. Changing attitudes about children,
greater access to family planning, improved women’s employment and greater infant survival could
explain the declining birth rates. Kenya’s demographic transition is incomplete with relatively high
birth rates remaining. Reluctance to contraception, relatively little education and few women’s job
opportunities could explain this.
Table 1. United States, Kenya, Japan and World Demographic Indicators, 1960-2010 1
Years 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
United States
Birth rate, 23.7 18.4 15.9 16.7 14.4 13
crude (per
1,000 people)
Death rate, 9.5 9.5 8.8 8.6 8.5 8
crude (per
1,000 people)
Kenya
Birth rate, 51.3 50.7 49.4 42.4 39.8 35.1
crude (per
1,000 people)
Death rate, 20.2 15.4 11.5 10.4 12.4 7.3
crude (per
1,000 people)
Japan
Birth rate, 17.3 18.7 13.5 10 9.4 8.5
crude (per
1,000 people)
1
Unless indicated, all statistics are taken from World Bank World Development Indicators, UKDS.Stat,
September 2017. <https://stats.ukdataservice.ac.uk/#> [accessed 25 February 2019]