Samenvatting geheel Climate & Society
,Klimaat & Maatschappij Hoorcollege
,Hoorcollege 1: Introductie + IPCC summary
Student assistent: Iris Keizer ()
Purpose of course
- WG1: physics of climate change
- WG2: adaptation to climate change
- WG3: mitigation to climate change
- Special reports
- Synthesis report
- Spin-off this has in the society
o Economic
o Legal
o Political
Grading
- Final examination
- 3 tests
- Adaptation/mitigation: quiz, presentation, take home exam.
IPCC summary
What is IPCC: Panel with governmental deputies form all UN countries subscribed to Rio protocol.
- UN body initiated in 1988
Task: to assess(evaluate and judge scientific literature) scientific knowledge on climate change
- Physics
- Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
- Mitigation of Climate Change
What does it do, what not?
- Organizes writing
- Determines which reports when
- Table of contents
- Set rules how to make the report
- Approves the reports
- Does not prescribe research of content.
Process
- Scoping: how should report look?
- Approval of Outline
- Nomination of authors
- Selection authors
- Expert review
- Government and expert review
- Final draft report and SPM
- Government review
- Approval & acceptance of report
- Publication of report
Status now
- Special report on 1.5 degrees target
, - Special report on land use changes
- Special report on Cryosphere and Ocean
- AR6 WG1 approval (July 2021)
Assessment process
- Evaluate evidence and agreement
- Synthesize finding and assess confidence (qualitative judgement)
- Quantify uncertainty with a likelihood assessment when necessary and where possible
- In most cases, all steps are not explicitly reported.
Evidence and Agreement
- Evaluation provides basis for findings; more trust when there is a lot of evidence and
agreement.
- WG1
o assessments of evidence and agreement are usually reported implicitly in the form of
a traceable account of the evidence.
o Makes many explicit confidence assessment.
- Likelihood assessment
o Quantified measure of the certainty in a finding
o Expressed as a probability
o Based on statistical or modelling analysis, expert judgement, or other approaches.
▪ Likely: change larger than 66%
▪ Very certain: 99%
▪ Unlikely: <33%
o Uncertainty rate goes up further in time, especially the socio economic uncertainty.
o Probability density functions
▪ Increases in mean: more hot extremes
▪ Increases in variance: more hot and cold extremes
▪ Increases in mean and variance: more hot extremes
Key message WG 1
- 20th century
o Global warming: 1K
o Sea level rise; 15-20 cm
o Human activity dominate since 1950
- CO2 higher than preceding millions of years
- High emission scenario
o Temperature increase: 2.5K-4.8K
o Sea level: 45-82 cm
- Ambitious climate policy
o Temperature increase; 0.3-1.7K
o Sea level: 26-55 cm
Observations
- Observed Temperature: Every of the last 2 decennia warmest since 1850, nearly everywhere
warmer
- Observed Precipitation: Some regions precipitation increased, other regions it decreased.
- Northern Hemisphere snow: decreased
- Arctic Sea Ice: decreased
- Ocean Heat content: increased
,Klimaat & Maatschappij Hoorcollege
,Hoorcollege 1: Introductie + IPCC summary
Student assistent: Iris Keizer ()
Purpose of course
- WG1: physics of climate change
- WG2: adaptation to climate change
- WG3: mitigation to climate change
- Special reports
- Synthesis report
- Spin-off this has in the society
o Economic
o Legal
o Political
Grading
- Final examination
- 3 tests
- Adaptation/mitigation: quiz, presentation, take home exam.
IPCC summary
What is IPCC: Panel with governmental deputies form all UN countries subscribed to Rio protocol.
- UN body initiated in 1988
Task: to assess(evaluate and judge scientific literature) scientific knowledge on climate change
- Physics
- Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
- Mitigation of Climate Change
What does it do, what not?
- Organizes writing
- Determines which reports when
- Table of contents
- Set rules how to make the report
- Approves the reports
- Does not prescribe research of content.
Process
- Scoping: how should report look?
- Approval of Outline
- Nomination of authors
- Selection authors
- Expert review
- Government and expert review
- Final draft report and SPM
- Government review
- Approval & acceptance of report
- Publication of report
Status now
- Special report on 1.5 degrees target
, - Special report on land use changes
- Special report on Cryosphere and Ocean
- AR6 WG1 approval (July 2021)
Assessment process
- Evaluate evidence and agreement
- Synthesize finding and assess confidence (qualitative judgement)
- Quantify uncertainty with a likelihood assessment when necessary and where possible
- In most cases, all steps are not explicitly reported.
Evidence and Agreement
- Evaluation provides basis for findings; more trust when there is a lot of evidence and
agreement.
- WG1
o assessments of evidence and agreement are usually reported implicitly in the form of
a traceable account of the evidence.
o Makes many explicit confidence assessment.
- Likelihood assessment
o Quantified measure of the certainty in a finding
o Expressed as a probability
o Based on statistical or modelling analysis, expert judgement, or other approaches.
▪ Likely: change larger than 66%
▪ Very certain: 99%
▪ Unlikely: <33%
o Uncertainty rate goes up further in time, especially the socio economic uncertainty.
o Probability density functions
▪ Increases in mean: more hot extremes
▪ Increases in variance: more hot and cold extremes
▪ Increases in mean and variance: more hot extremes
Key message WG 1
- 20th century
o Global warming: 1K
o Sea level rise; 15-20 cm
o Human activity dominate since 1950
- CO2 higher than preceding millions of years
- High emission scenario
o Temperature increase: 2.5K-4.8K
o Sea level: 45-82 cm
- Ambitious climate policy
o Temperature increase; 0.3-1.7K
o Sea level: 26-55 cm
Observations
- Observed Temperature: Every of the last 2 decennia warmest since 1850, nearly everywhere
warmer
- Observed Precipitation: Some regions precipitation increased, other regions it decreased.
- Northern Hemisphere snow: decreased
- Arctic Sea Ice: decreased
- Ocean Heat content: increased
