Lecture 1: Introduction & Methodological issues: Age, period,
cohort effects
- Adolescence/young adulthood most important for formation of cohort: lots of transitions (job,
education, relationship, family formation), so very dynamic period of life; young people most open to
change and innovation (seismographic function for future trends in society). Drivers of change.
The generational approach
- 1946-1964: Baby boomers. 1965-1979: Generation X. 1980-1994: Millennials. 1995-now iGen.
- Generation: member of one based on date of birth, share specific characteristics. Determined by
asking young people questions, comparing answers over time, documenting changes. And looking at
important historical events.
- Characteristics of a generation will still fit that generation when they’re 60 years old. The values and
ideas that you develop during your youth/adolescence will stay with you for the rest of your life.
- Music: really binds people as a group. Songs from your adolescence will keep on touching you
during the rest of your life, nostalgia. It’s very formative.
The millennial cohort
- Millennials: very apolitical (trust in government so low, unlikely to be a member of a political party),
distrustful, unaffiliated of the government/institutions.
- Downwardly mobile: nowadays new generations become less wealthy than their parents’
generation (due to economic circumstances among others).
- Upbeat and very optimistic: not changing things as a group, but a bit more individualistically.
- Important historical events youth millennials: 9/11 2001, Edward Snowden’s (America engaged in
mass surveillance of their own citizens), financial crisis/recession of 2008, start of climate change.
Transitions in the youth phase
- 19th century: ‘adolescence’ came into existence (time of industrialization, expanded public
education, urbanization). Before then, only 3 phases in life: 1birth and childhood, 2adulthood, 3death.
- G. Stanley Hall – 1904: first scientific study of adolescence. Positive: ‘The adolescent stage has long
seemed to me one of the most fascinating of all themes. These years are the best decade of life… It is
a state from which some of the bad, but far more of the good qualities of life and mind arise.’
- Why 1904?: evolution was studied a lot. ‘Recapitulation theory’: the development of each individual
recapitulates (=re-enacts) the evolutionary development of the human species as a whole. To find
out how the human species had developed, study individual development (starting at early stages of
evolution). Scholars became interested in how young children develop, because they thought it
would give them insights in how the human species as a whole would have developed.
Transitions in the youth phase
- Youth phase has expanded. Mean age at menarche declined, so earlier physical maturity. And later
start of adult life later (why?: longer educational period, working at later age, later family formation).
- Importance interdisciplinarity: biological-, societal- and psychological- factors and how intertwined.
APC-analysis
- A (Age): different phases in the life courses: when you grow older, transitions take place, simply
because you grow older (menarche, voting; so both biological and societal factors).
- P (Period): the historical moment: something happens, typically a big event. For example: war.
Impacts everyone in that time and place.
- C (Cohort): people who are born in the same historical period move through history together and
form a particular age-group with particular characteristics. Something happens during your youth,
,that affects your generation more than others.
Example: drinking alcohol
- Age effect: as you get older, you are more likely to drink (laws, or raise status among your peers).
- Period effect: 1960s people drank more due to introduction of alcohol at large scale on the market,
we didn’t know much of the negative effects, you can see it as innovative behavior.
- Cohort effect: hippies more open minded towards alcohol, or young people in the 1990s drank more
due to their parents being raised by the cohort that was young during the hippie period. Shows:
specific behavior/attitudes developed during youth, stay with you for the rest of your life, and can
impact behaviors and developments of future generations (generation becomes parents).
Study designs (Dubas’ handout)
Cross-sectional: Longitudinal: Simple time-lag: Time-sequential: Cohort-sequential: Cross-sequential:
- Cross-sectional: separate age groups are assessed, with each subject tested only once all in the
same year. Problem: age is confounded with cohort (you can’t draw age related conclusions; no
conclusions on development, so when you grow older, this or that happens).
- Longitudinal: follow the same individuals over time. Problem: age and time of measurement
(history) is confounded.
- Sequential Time-Lag design: involve studying more than one cohort over time.
- a) Simple Time-Lag design: several cohorts studied at the same ages Problem: Unconfounds age
with year of measurement by eliminating age, but cohort and time of measurement confounded.
- b) Time-sequential design: several cross-sectional studies done several years apart. If the same age
differences found for each study, then one would be more confident that the age difference are in
fact related to age and not due to a history or time of measurement effect.
- c) Cohort-sequential design: two or more longitudinal studies each with a different cohort.
- d) Cross-sequential design: begin with several age groups, study each group/cohort longitudinally.
Study designs
- Age effect: follow people for a longer period of time, individual trajectories. For example: health
declining. Follow people over time, for (almost) all of them after a specific age their health declines ->
these changes probably take place because of increasing age.
- Period effect: war -> everyone’s health declines (lack of food, quality of food, injuries etc), happens
at population level, therefore it’s a period effect.
- We don’t always have the resources to use the most complete design (money, time).
Lecture 2: Social Inequality
Identification problem
- Identification problem= two different kind of effects (for example age and cohort) are confounded.
TRAILS (Tracking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey)
- Longitudinal, broad, study on adolescent development. Started in 2001 (children were 11) followed
up until now (age 30). Multi-informant (parents, teachers, best friend, romantic partner participate).
- Concerns one cohort, is longitudinal, so the focus is to follow individual trajectories of development.
HBSC (Health Behavior in School-aged Children)
- Cross-sectional survey (so not following individual children over time) on health, -behaviors and
, well-being of 11-15 year-olds. Collects data in almost 50 countries, mainly in Europe and North
America. Conducted every 4 years (Nl participates since 2001). Works with nationally representative
samples (so it’s possible to make cross-national comparisons). It’s a time-sequential design.
- When data is collected, all countries collect it more or less at the same time. Between the fall of a
year and the spring of the next year (internationally we use 2014, NL collected in fall 2013).
Recent trends in adolescent health and well-being
- There have been changes in young people’s behavior. We’ll link it to the age, period, cohort effect.
- 1) Since 2000, decline in substance use (weekly/monthly smoking, or drinking (NL scores relatively
high, but there’s also a pretty steep decline), or lifetime cannabis use).
- 2) The age of first sexual intercourse increases. Sex at a very early age (14/15) is considered risky,
because it’s related to all kinds of other risk behaviors.
- 3) There’s a decline in juvenile criminality (physical fighting, truancy, improved road safety).
- So overall: less risk behavior. Why?: Some say they’re less rebellious. Maybe this is just a generation
that’s very conscious about health. However: it doesn’t really seem to apply completely, because:
- 1) Obesity is on the rise (general trend across Western countries). Nutrition (adolescents aren’t
eating more healthily). Physical activity (has not become more, still very very low). Contraceptive use
(condom use has declined). Mental health (small decline, and increase in stress).
Cross-national inequalities in health (based on the HBSC studies; for 15 year-olds)
- Cannabis use, lifetime: NL has a relative liberal cannabis policy, for boys 23%, girls 19%. Both
relatively high. We’re not the highest scoring country (more in USA, Canada, France, Spain). So policy
by itself can’t explain all of these inequalities.
- Weekly alcohol consumption: for boys 25%, girls 18%. NL specifically scores very low (in the lowest
6/7 countries). Remarkable, because at the beginning of this century we were top ranking. So cross-
national inequalities can change rather drastically over time.
- Sexual experience: NL quite liberal. Rates for having had a sexual activity are relatively low for NL.
- Happiness (rate your life with 6 out of 10 or higher): boys 96%, girls 90%. Best scoring country, or in
the top 3. Stable finding, every 4 years we see that Dutch children score relatively high.
- Liking school a lot: girls specifically like school more than boys. Boys 19%, girls 28%. NL scores high,
not top ranking. Girl in top 10, boys top 1/3th of countries. So relatively high life satisfaction and
liking school a lot show that NL scores quite positively compared to other countries.
- Decline in liking school in NL: overall decline, but particularly strong in NL.
- Increasing schoolwork pressure: increase in NL much larger than other countries. Dutch culture is a
‘6jes culture’, it’s the goal to pass, not to excel. But that’s changing.
- Increase in psychosomatic symptoms: increase in NL, specifically strong between 2009 and 2013.
- Is this an international trend? Similar trends in other countries (increase in psychosomatic
symptoms, increase in perceived schoolwork pressure). Between 2002 and 2018 there was a small
decline in adolescent mental wellbeing and an increase in perceived schoolwork pressure. Linked to
increases in perfectionism, or to the current economic system.
Some positive news
- Being bullied at least twice in the past couple of months: boys 6%, girls 3% (NL in lowest 10
countries). International decline in bullying.
- Support from mother and/or father: to what extent is it easy to talk with parents about sensitive
topics. Mother-adolescent communication: boys 90%, girls 90% (top ranking). Father-adolescent:
boys 87%, girls 71% (top score). Increase in this communication.
Explanations for cross-national inequalities
- There are inequalities, and these can change over time. But how to explain?: 3 types of
cohort effects
- Adolescence/young adulthood most important for formation of cohort: lots of transitions (job,
education, relationship, family formation), so very dynamic period of life; young people most open to
change and innovation (seismographic function for future trends in society). Drivers of change.
The generational approach
- 1946-1964: Baby boomers. 1965-1979: Generation X. 1980-1994: Millennials. 1995-now iGen.
- Generation: member of one based on date of birth, share specific characteristics. Determined by
asking young people questions, comparing answers over time, documenting changes. And looking at
important historical events.
- Characteristics of a generation will still fit that generation when they’re 60 years old. The values and
ideas that you develop during your youth/adolescence will stay with you for the rest of your life.
- Music: really binds people as a group. Songs from your adolescence will keep on touching you
during the rest of your life, nostalgia. It’s very formative.
The millennial cohort
- Millennials: very apolitical (trust in government so low, unlikely to be a member of a political party),
distrustful, unaffiliated of the government/institutions.
- Downwardly mobile: nowadays new generations become less wealthy than their parents’
generation (due to economic circumstances among others).
- Upbeat and very optimistic: not changing things as a group, but a bit more individualistically.
- Important historical events youth millennials: 9/11 2001, Edward Snowden’s (America engaged in
mass surveillance of their own citizens), financial crisis/recession of 2008, start of climate change.
Transitions in the youth phase
- 19th century: ‘adolescence’ came into existence (time of industrialization, expanded public
education, urbanization). Before then, only 3 phases in life: 1birth and childhood, 2adulthood, 3death.
- G. Stanley Hall – 1904: first scientific study of adolescence. Positive: ‘The adolescent stage has long
seemed to me one of the most fascinating of all themes. These years are the best decade of life… It is
a state from which some of the bad, but far more of the good qualities of life and mind arise.’
- Why 1904?: evolution was studied a lot. ‘Recapitulation theory’: the development of each individual
recapitulates (=re-enacts) the evolutionary development of the human species as a whole. To find
out how the human species had developed, study individual development (starting at early stages of
evolution). Scholars became interested in how young children develop, because they thought it
would give them insights in how the human species as a whole would have developed.
Transitions in the youth phase
- Youth phase has expanded. Mean age at menarche declined, so earlier physical maturity. And later
start of adult life later (why?: longer educational period, working at later age, later family formation).
- Importance interdisciplinarity: biological-, societal- and psychological- factors and how intertwined.
APC-analysis
- A (Age): different phases in the life courses: when you grow older, transitions take place, simply
because you grow older (menarche, voting; so both biological and societal factors).
- P (Period): the historical moment: something happens, typically a big event. For example: war.
Impacts everyone in that time and place.
- C (Cohort): people who are born in the same historical period move through history together and
form a particular age-group with particular characteristics. Something happens during your youth,
,that affects your generation more than others.
Example: drinking alcohol
- Age effect: as you get older, you are more likely to drink (laws, or raise status among your peers).
- Period effect: 1960s people drank more due to introduction of alcohol at large scale on the market,
we didn’t know much of the negative effects, you can see it as innovative behavior.
- Cohort effect: hippies more open minded towards alcohol, or young people in the 1990s drank more
due to their parents being raised by the cohort that was young during the hippie period. Shows:
specific behavior/attitudes developed during youth, stay with you for the rest of your life, and can
impact behaviors and developments of future generations (generation becomes parents).
Study designs (Dubas’ handout)
Cross-sectional: Longitudinal: Simple time-lag: Time-sequential: Cohort-sequential: Cross-sequential:
- Cross-sectional: separate age groups are assessed, with each subject tested only once all in the
same year. Problem: age is confounded with cohort (you can’t draw age related conclusions; no
conclusions on development, so when you grow older, this or that happens).
- Longitudinal: follow the same individuals over time. Problem: age and time of measurement
(history) is confounded.
- Sequential Time-Lag design: involve studying more than one cohort over time.
- a) Simple Time-Lag design: several cohorts studied at the same ages Problem: Unconfounds age
with year of measurement by eliminating age, but cohort and time of measurement confounded.
- b) Time-sequential design: several cross-sectional studies done several years apart. If the same age
differences found for each study, then one would be more confident that the age difference are in
fact related to age and not due to a history or time of measurement effect.
- c) Cohort-sequential design: two or more longitudinal studies each with a different cohort.
- d) Cross-sequential design: begin with several age groups, study each group/cohort longitudinally.
Study designs
- Age effect: follow people for a longer period of time, individual trajectories. For example: health
declining. Follow people over time, for (almost) all of them after a specific age their health declines ->
these changes probably take place because of increasing age.
- Period effect: war -> everyone’s health declines (lack of food, quality of food, injuries etc), happens
at population level, therefore it’s a period effect.
- We don’t always have the resources to use the most complete design (money, time).
Lecture 2: Social Inequality
Identification problem
- Identification problem= two different kind of effects (for example age and cohort) are confounded.
TRAILS (Tracking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey)
- Longitudinal, broad, study on adolescent development. Started in 2001 (children were 11) followed
up until now (age 30). Multi-informant (parents, teachers, best friend, romantic partner participate).
- Concerns one cohort, is longitudinal, so the focus is to follow individual trajectories of development.
HBSC (Health Behavior in School-aged Children)
- Cross-sectional survey (so not following individual children over time) on health, -behaviors and
, well-being of 11-15 year-olds. Collects data in almost 50 countries, mainly in Europe and North
America. Conducted every 4 years (Nl participates since 2001). Works with nationally representative
samples (so it’s possible to make cross-national comparisons). It’s a time-sequential design.
- When data is collected, all countries collect it more or less at the same time. Between the fall of a
year and the spring of the next year (internationally we use 2014, NL collected in fall 2013).
Recent trends in adolescent health and well-being
- There have been changes in young people’s behavior. We’ll link it to the age, period, cohort effect.
- 1) Since 2000, decline in substance use (weekly/monthly smoking, or drinking (NL scores relatively
high, but there’s also a pretty steep decline), or lifetime cannabis use).
- 2) The age of first sexual intercourse increases. Sex at a very early age (14/15) is considered risky,
because it’s related to all kinds of other risk behaviors.
- 3) There’s a decline in juvenile criminality (physical fighting, truancy, improved road safety).
- So overall: less risk behavior. Why?: Some say they’re less rebellious. Maybe this is just a generation
that’s very conscious about health. However: it doesn’t really seem to apply completely, because:
- 1) Obesity is on the rise (general trend across Western countries). Nutrition (adolescents aren’t
eating more healthily). Physical activity (has not become more, still very very low). Contraceptive use
(condom use has declined). Mental health (small decline, and increase in stress).
Cross-national inequalities in health (based on the HBSC studies; for 15 year-olds)
- Cannabis use, lifetime: NL has a relative liberal cannabis policy, for boys 23%, girls 19%. Both
relatively high. We’re not the highest scoring country (more in USA, Canada, France, Spain). So policy
by itself can’t explain all of these inequalities.
- Weekly alcohol consumption: for boys 25%, girls 18%. NL specifically scores very low (in the lowest
6/7 countries). Remarkable, because at the beginning of this century we were top ranking. So cross-
national inequalities can change rather drastically over time.
- Sexual experience: NL quite liberal. Rates for having had a sexual activity are relatively low for NL.
- Happiness (rate your life with 6 out of 10 or higher): boys 96%, girls 90%. Best scoring country, or in
the top 3. Stable finding, every 4 years we see that Dutch children score relatively high.
- Liking school a lot: girls specifically like school more than boys. Boys 19%, girls 28%. NL scores high,
not top ranking. Girl in top 10, boys top 1/3th of countries. So relatively high life satisfaction and
liking school a lot show that NL scores quite positively compared to other countries.
- Decline in liking school in NL: overall decline, but particularly strong in NL.
- Increasing schoolwork pressure: increase in NL much larger than other countries. Dutch culture is a
‘6jes culture’, it’s the goal to pass, not to excel. But that’s changing.
- Increase in psychosomatic symptoms: increase in NL, specifically strong between 2009 and 2013.
- Is this an international trend? Similar trends in other countries (increase in psychosomatic
symptoms, increase in perceived schoolwork pressure). Between 2002 and 2018 there was a small
decline in adolescent mental wellbeing and an increase in perceived schoolwork pressure. Linked to
increases in perfectionism, or to the current economic system.
Some positive news
- Being bullied at least twice in the past couple of months: boys 6%, girls 3% (NL in lowest 10
countries). International decline in bullying.
- Support from mother and/or father: to what extent is it easy to talk with parents about sensitive
topics. Mother-adolescent communication: boys 90%, girls 90% (top ranking). Father-adolescent:
boys 87%, girls 71% (top score). Increase in this communication.
Explanations for cross-national inequalities
- There are inequalities, and these can change over time. But how to explain?: 3 types of
