Population Dynamics Hoorcollege 1:
Classical Demography:
- Population Size
- Population Structure
- Distribution over countries and regions
- And changes therein
3 Components: Fertility, Mortality and Migration
Social Demography:
Broadening of focus:
- Leaving the parental home
- Marriage, cohabitation
- Separation, divorce
- Health, Nutrition and place
Not just population but Individual (Macro Micro)
The Story behind the numbers!
,Population Dynamics Hoorcollege 2:
Demografisch Transitie model (DTM)
Development:
- Access to basic necessities (food, Shelter & Clothing)
- Having Money (GDP)
- Human Development Index
- Happiness
Rosling:
- Developing World ( High Growth Rates)
- Emerging World (Growth slowing down)
- Developed World (Low growth or decline)
Overpopulation:
- Overpopulation refers to the exceeding of certain threshold limits of population density
when environmental resources fail to meet the requirements of individual organisms
regarding shelter, nutrition and so forth.
- If the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly being degraded by its current human
occupants, that area is overpopulated (Ehrlich).
Thomas Malthus:
Population grows at a geometric rate, production capacity only grows arithmetically
Population checks: War, pestilence, famine (Mortality),Planned birth control, abstinence (Fertility)
Eugenics (Galton and others): Not too many people, but too many poor and ‘unfavourable’ people
Paul Ehrlich: The Population Bomb (1968)
, Garrett Hardin: ‘The tragedy of the commons’ (social dilemma approach) Depletion of resources =
rational for individual, disastrous for society (overfishing), Lifeboat ethics (1976)
John Avery:
High birth rates and low death rates “lead to population growth so rapid that the development that
could have slowed population growth is impossible.”
Declining fertility rates when
- People are better educated!
- People become more prosperous
- People have work
I=P*A*T
Human Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology
Green revolution: food production will keep up, because of improvements in technology
Boserup: Food production depends on population size (Necessity is the mother of invention)
Julian Simon: Population growth might bring more mouths to feed, but also brings more hands to
work and more brains to think
Conclusions
› World population is growing rapidly, but the rate of growth is slowly decreasing
› Growth of the world population is not equally distributed
› Population growth is related to human development
- Demographic Transition Model
› Pessimists believe the world population will exceed the planet’s carrying capacity
› Optimists believe a growing population will find ways to enlarge the planet’s carrying capacity
Definitions, methods & names:
Overpopulation
Carrying capacity
Human Impact
Demographic trap
Demographic dividend/window/bonus
Demographic Pressure
Population pyramid
Malthus
Hardin
Ehrlich
Boserup
Simon
Classical Demography:
- Population Size
- Population Structure
- Distribution over countries and regions
- And changes therein
3 Components: Fertility, Mortality and Migration
Social Demography:
Broadening of focus:
- Leaving the parental home
- Marriage, cohabitation
- Separation, divorce
- Health, Nutrition and place
Not just population but Individual (Macro Micro)
The Story behind the numbers!
,Population Dynamics Hoorcollege 2:
Demografisch Transitie model (DTM)
Development:
- Access to basic necessities (food, Shelter & Clothing)
- Having Money (GDP)
- Human Development Index
- Happiness
Rosling:
- Developing World ( High Growth Rates)
- Emerging World (Growth slowing down)
- Developed World (Low growth or decline)
Overpopulation:
- Overpopulation refers to the exceeding of certain threshold limits of population density
when environmental resources fail to meet the requirements of individual organisms
regarding shelter, nutrition and so forth.
- If the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly being degraded by its current human
occupants, that area is overpopulated (Ehrlich).
Thomas Malthus:
Population grows at a geometric rate, production capacity only grows arithmetically
Population checks: War, pestilence, famine (Mortality),Planned birth control, abstinence (Fertility)
Eugenics (Galton and others): Not too many people, but too many poor and ‘unfavourable’ people
Paul Ehrlich: The Population Bomb (1968)
, Garrett Hardin: ‘The tragedy of the commons’ (social dilemma approach) Depletion of resources =
rational for individual, disastrous for society (overfishing), Lifeboat ethics (1976)
John Avery:
High birth rates and low death rates “lead to population growth so rapid that the development that
could have slowed population growth is impossible.”
Declining fertility rates when
- People are better educated!
- People become more prosperous
- People have work
I=P*A*T
Human Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology
Green revolution: food production will keep up, because of improvements in technology
Boserup: Food production depends on population size (Necessity is the mother of invention)
Julian Simon: Population growth might bring more mouths to feed, but also brings more hands to
work and more brains to think
Conclusions
› World population is growing rapidly, but the rate of growth is slowly decreasing
› Growth of the world population is not equally distributed
› Population growth is related to human development
- Demographic Transition Model
› Pessimists believe the world population will exceed the planet’s carrying capacity
› Optimists believe a growing population will find ways to enlarge the planet’s carrying capacity
Definitions, methods & names:
Overpopulation
Carrying capacity
Human Impact
Demographic trap
Demographic dividend/window/bonus
Demographic Pressure
Population pyramid
Malthus
Hardin
Ehrlich
Boserup
Simon
