PAD 3003John Schuyler-Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Edition (Cases in project and program mana

Introduction Decision analysis (DA),sometimes called risk analysis, is the discipline for helpingdecision makerschoose wisely under conditionsof uncertainty.The techniques are applicable to all types of project decisions and valuations. Committing to fund a project does not end the decision making, for decisions continue to be made throughout the project life cycle. The quality of these decisions impacts cost, schedule, and performance. This book explores the approach and principal techniquesof DA. These methods explicitly recognize uncertainties in project forecasts.This analysis technology,on the leadingedge in the1970s and earlier, is becomingmainstream practice.The methodology is proven, accessible, and-I hope you will agree-easily understood. Decision Problems Most decision problemsare about resourceallocation:Where do we put our money, time, and other resources? DA involves concepts borrowed from probability theory, statistics, psychology, finance, and operations research. The formal disciplineis called decision science, a subset of operations research (also called management science). Operations Research/Management Science Chapter 1-Risk and Decision Analysis (OR/MS or ORMS)is the broad discipline of applying quantitative methods to problems of business and other organizations. DA techniques are universal.They apply in any professional discipline and to problems in your personallife.