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AS Level politics PREDICTIONS paper 1 2026 edexcel - essay questions, topic areas, and essay plans

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list of most likely topics to come up in paper 1 2026

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PRESSURE GROUPS (NOT COME UP SINCE 2020):

Do pressure groups promote democracy and participation?

To what extent is pressure group success down to large membership?

Evaluate the view that pressure groups who participate in direct action are doomed to
failure.


VOTING SYSTEMS (LINK TO WALES CHANGING ITS VOTING SYSTEM)

Do the advantages of the FPTP outweigh the disadvantages?

Should the FPTP system for Westminster be replaced by STV? (COULD ALSO BE
AMS)

Do the positives of the alternative electoral systems in the UK outweigh the negatives?



VOTING BEHAVIOUR (LINK TO RISE OF GREENS AND REFORM)

Evaluate the extent to which social factors determine voting behaviour.

Evaluate the extent to which ‘new’ forms of media changed voting behaviour?

Evaluate the view that class is no longer important in determining voting behaviour?

Evaluate the view that social factors are crucial in determining elections?

Evaluate the view that elections are won on wider political events rather than party
manifestos?

Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government
rather than won by the opposition.

LEADERSHIP STYLE (LINK TO STARMER / MANDLESON)

The success of a Prime Minister is determined more by the political context than their
personal leadership style.

,To what extent is the influence of the media the most important factor in determining
the success or failure of a political party? (could also be leadership, and you’d talk about
leadership in this one anyway)

10 MARKERS (LINK TO GB NEWS SO POSSIBLY ONE ON MEDIA-BUT THIS
IS VERY HARD TO PREDICT)

Describe the ways in which social media is used by political parties during election
campaigns

Describe how the media can set the political agenda in the UK

Describe the role of televised leaders' debates in influencing voter perceptions

Describe how the media holds the government and politicians to account.

(CERTAINLY NOT AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST)




PLANS:




PRESSURE GROUPS


Q1: Do pressure groups promote democracy and
participation?
ARGUMENT 1: Pressure groups widen political engagement beyond elections,
increasing participation in a pluralist democracy. Groups like Greenpeace and the RSPB
mobilise millions of members around specific causes, giving citizens a route to political
influence between general elections and increasing the overall health of civic life.

ARGUMENT 2: Insider groups feed expert knowledge into the policy process, improving
democratic decision-making. The BMA and the Howard League for Penal Reform

, provide specialist input to ministers and civil servants, ensuring legislation is better
informed — a form of functional democracy that complements electoral representation.

ARGUMENT 3: Pressure groups give voice to minorities and marginalised groups who
might otherwise be drowned out by majoritarian electoral politics. Groups like Stonewall
or disability rights organisations have secured policy changes that purely electoral
politics might never have delivered, broadening whose interests are represented in a
democracy.

COUNTER 1: Pressure groups can undermine democratic equality — wealthy,
well-resourced groups like the CBI and financial sector lobbyists have disproportionate
access to ministers, distorting policy in favour of elites. Insider status means unelected
bodies shape legislation in ways that are opaque and unaccountable to the public,
favouring those with money over those with numbers.

COUNTER 2: Pressure groups are often unrepresentative of the wider public interest —
their leaders are unelected, and their memberships may pursue narrow sectional goals.
The NFU represents farmers but not broader environmental or consumer interests;
trade unions in the 1970s pursued sectional interests that conflicted with the democratic
majority's preferences, contributing to the Winter of Discontent.

COUNTER 3: Direct action groups like Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion can
bypass democratic processes entirely, alienating the public rather than engaging it.
Motorway blockades hardened opposition to climate action among many voters, and the
resulting public backlash prompted the government to pass the Police, Crime,
Sentencing and Courts Act 2022, which narrowed the right to protest — the opposite of
promoting democratic participation.




Q2: To what extent is pressure group success down to
large membership?
ARGUMENT 1: Large membership provides financial resources, organisational
capacity, and the ability to mount sustained campaigns — the RSPB with over 1 million
members can fund professional lobbying, legal challenges, and media operations that
smaller groups cannot match, giving it persistent influence across multiple policy cycles.

ARGUMENT 2: Large membership signals democratic legitimacy and electoral threat to
politicians — a group representing millions of voters cannot easily be ignored by MPs in
marginal seats. Trade unions historically used mass membership to demonstrate that

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