Strategy & Responsible Foresight
Reading Material
- Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response
uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change by Vecchiato & Roveda (2010)
– section 1.2 to 3.1 (pp. 1527-1534)
- Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm by
Rohrbeck & Gemünden (2011) – section 4 (pp. 237-240)
- Scenario methodology: developing scenarios by Nekkers (2016) – introduction (pp.
11-12) + section on “Identifying trends” (pp. 18-19)
- Technological innovation: on the origins and development of an inclusive concept by
Godin (2016) (pp. 527-556)
- Innovation: a guide to the literature by Fagerberg (2006) (pp. 1-26)
- In search of useful theory of innovation by Nelson & Winter (2010) (pp. 36-76)
- Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level
perspective and a case-study by Geels (1977) (pp. 1257-1274)
- Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of
expectations by van Lente (2012) – sections 3 & 4 (excl. 3.3 & 3.4)
- Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment by Konrad et al. (2012) –
sections 2 & 4 (excl. 2.2)
- Developing a framework for responsible innovation by Stilgoe et al. (2013) (pp. 1568-
1580)
- Responsible research and innovation: from science in society to science for society
by Owen et al. (2012) (pp. 751-760)
- The role of civil society organizations in European responsible research and
innovation by Ahrweiler et al. (2019) (pp. 25-49)
, STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN CORPORATE ORGANIZATIONS: HANDLING THE EFFECT AND
RESPONSE UNCERTAINTY OF TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE BY
VECCHIATO & ROVEDA (2010) – SECTION 1.2 TO 3.1 (PP. 1527-1534)
Environmental uncertainty = the lack of accurate information about organizations, activities,
and events in the external sources of the business (micro and macro) environment of the
firm, and as the difficulty to understand what the major changes are or will be
Types of uncertainty concerning drivers of change (Milliken)
1. “State” uncertainty
2. “Effect” uncertainty
3. “Response” uncertainty
“State” uncertainty = uncertainty about their evolution
“Effect” uncertainty = uncertainty about their impact on the competitive position of the firm
“Response” uncertainty = uncertainty about the response viable to the firm
Environmental scanning = the search for information about emerging drivers in a company
outside environment, the knowledge of which would assist top management in its task of
charting the company’s future course of action
Most popular future-oriented techniques and methods
1. Roadmaps
2. Scenarios
Foresight = the wide range of approaches and activities which aim at helping managers to
handle uncertainty
Strategic foresight = term used to emphasize the tight relationship with the strategy
formulation process
Sustaining the industry evolution vs Anticipating the industry transformation
Industry current structure: Five forces and sources of competition
1. Direct rivals
2. Customers
3. Suppliers
4. Potential entrants
5. Providers of substitute products
Gap Analysis = what resources do we need to anticipate the industry transformation
Risk Analysis = what risk do we run if we sustain the industry evolution
Reading Material
- Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response
uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change by Vecchiato & Roveda (2010)
– section 1.2 to 3.1 (pp. 1527-1534)
- Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm by
Rohrbeck & Gemünden (2011) – section 4 (pp. 237-240)
- Scenario methodology: developing scenarios by Nekkers (2016) – introduction (pp.
11-12) + section on “Identifying trends” (pp. 18-19)
- Technological innovation: on the origins and development of an inclusive concept by
Godin (2016) (pp. 527-556)
- Innovation: a guide to the literature by Fagerberg (2006) (pp. 1-26)
- In search of useful theory of innovation by Nelson & Winter (2010) (pp. 36-76)
- Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level
perspective and a case-study by Geels (1977) (pp. 1257-1274)
- Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of
expectations by van Lente (2012) – sections 3 & 4 (excl. 3.3 & 3.4)
- Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment by Konrad et al. (2012) –
sections 2 & 4 (excl. 2.2)
- Developing a framework for responsible innovation by Stilgoe et al. (2013) (pp. 1568-
1580)
- Responsible research and innovation: from science in society to science for society
by Owen et al. (2012) (pp. 751-760)
- The role of civil society organizations in European responsible research and
innovation by Ahrweiler et al. (2019) (pp. 25-49)
, STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN CORPORATE ORGANIZATIONS: HANDLING THE EFFECT AND
RESPONSE UNCERTAINTY OF TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE BY
VECCHIATO & ROVEDA (2010) – SECTION 1.2 TO 3.1 (PP. 1527-1534)
Environmental uncertainty = the lack of accurate information about organizations, activities,
and events in the external sources of the business (micro and macro) environment of the
firm, and as the difficulty to understand what the major changes are or will be
Types of uncertainty concerning drivers of change (Milliken)
1. “State” uncertainty
2. “Effect” uncertainty
3. “Response” uncertainty
“State” uncertainty = uncertainty about their evolution
“Effect” uncertainty = uncertainty about their impact on the competitive position of the firm
“Response” uncertainty = uncertainty about the response viable to the firm
Environmental scanning = the search for information about emerging drivers in a company
outside environment, the knowledge of which would assist top management in its task of
charting the company’s future course of action
Most popular future-oriented techniques and methods
1. Roadmaps
2. Scenarios
Foresight = the wide range of approaches and activities which aim at helping managers to
handle uncertainty
Strategic foresight = term used to emphasize the tight relationship with the strategy
formulation process
Sustaining the industry evolution vs Anticipating the industry transformation
Industry current structure: Five forces and sources of competition
1. Direct rivals
2. Customers
3. Suppliers
4. Potential entrants
5. Providers of substitute products
Gap Analysis = what resources do we need to anticipate the industry transformation
Risk Analysis = what risk do we run if we sustain the industry evolution
