Zoë Nicasie – 2024-2025
Samenvatting Macro-economie
Inhoudsopgave
1 Wat is macro-economie? ________________________________________________________________________________ 6
1.1 Twee grote stromingen _______________________________________________________________________________ 6
1.2 Nut van macro-economie_____________________________________________________________________________ 7
1.3 Controverse macro-economie ________________________________________________________________________ 7
1.4 Economische stromen _______________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.1 Adam Smith _____________________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2 Industriële revolutie ______________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2.1 Marxisme ___________________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2.2 Oostenrijkse school __________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.3 Economische crisis van de jaren ‘30 _______________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.3.1 John Maynard Keynes ________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.4 Jaren ’70 – ’80: Monetarisme ______________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.5 Crisis van 2008: Moderne monetaire theorie ________________________________________________________ 8
1.5 Theorie en empirie ___________________________________________________________________________________ 9
2 BBP en Inflatie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1 BBP________________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1.1 Definitie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1.1.1 Open economie _____________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.2 De marktwaarde … __________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.3 … van alle … ________________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.4 … finale … __________________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.5 … goederen en diensten … ___________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.6 … die geproduceerd worden … _______________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.7 … in een land … _____________________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.1.8 … binnen een bepaalde periode. _____________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.2 Andere manieren om inkomen te meten___________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.3 Componenten van het BBP ______________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.4 Vergelijking BBP van landen ______________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.5 Reëel vs nominaal ______________________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.5.1 Reëel BBP __________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.5.2 BBP Deflator ________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.5.3 Oefening ___________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.6 BBP groeivoet___________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.7 Limieten van BBP als maatstaf ___________________________________________________________________ 13
2.2 Inflatie _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 14
2.2.1 Consumptieprijzenindex _________________________________________________________________________ 14
2.2.1.1 Hoe wordt de consumptieprijzenindex berekend? ______________________________________________ 14
2.2.1.2 Problemen met het meten van de consumptieprijzenindex ______________________________________ 15
2.2.2 In België worden er nog andere indexen gebruikt ___________________________________________________ 15
2.2.3 Indexering ______________________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.3.1 Loonindexatie ______________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.3.2 Huurindexering _____________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.4 Verschil tussen BBP deflator en de CPI ____________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.5 Economische variabelen corrigeren voor inflatie ___________________________________________________ 16
2.2.6 Reële en nominale rente _________________________________________________________________________ 17
3 Economische groei ____________________________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1 Waarom zijn sommige landen arm en andere rijk? _____________________________________________________ 18
3.1.1 Economische groei in BBP/capita ________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1.2 Trend in groeivoeten_____________________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1.3 Kleine verschillen, grote invloed __________________________________________________________________ 19
3.2 Neoklassieke groeitheorie ___________________________________________________________________________ 19
3.2.1 Wat bepaalt productiviteit? ______________________________________________________________________ 19
, 3.3 Solow-Swan model _________________________________________________________________________________ 20
3.3.1 Oorzaken van groei ______________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.3.2 Het endogene groeimodel _______________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4 Hoe kan beleid groei beïnvloeden? ___________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.1 Investeringen ___________________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.2 Menselijk kapitaal _______________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.3 Technologische ontwikkeling ____________________________________________________________________ 22
3.4.4 Buitenlandse handel ____________________________________________________________________________ 22
4 Werkloosheid__________________________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.1 Wat is werkloosheid? _______________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2 Hoe wordt werkloosheid gemeten? ___________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2.1 Administratieve data ____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2.2 Labour force survey _____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.3 Definities __________________________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.4 Natuurlijke werkloosheid ____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.5 Oorzaken werkloosheid _____________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.5.1 Frictiewerkloosheid _____________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.5.2 Structurele werkloosheid ________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.6 Theorieën i.v.m. structurele werkloosheid _____________________________________________________________ 24
4.6.1 Neo-klassieke theorie: marktimperfecties _________________________________________________________ 24
4.6.1.1 Minimumloon_______________________________________________________________________________ 25
4.6.1.2 Vakbonden _________________________________________________________________________________ 25
4.6.1.3 Efficiency wages = efficiënte lonen ___________________________________________________________ 26
4.6.1.4 Werkloosheidsuitkeringen ___________________________________________________________________ 26
4.6.2 Keynesiaanse theorie: te weinig vraag _____________________________________________________________ 27
4.6.3 Neo-klassieke synthese _________________________________________________________________________ 27
4.6.4 Marxisme ______________________________________________________________________________________ 27
4.7 Bestaat natuurlijke werkloosheid? ____________________________________________________________________ 27
4.7.1.1 Reden waarom natuurlijke werkloosheid wijzigt ________________________________________________ 27
4.7.1.2 Natuurlijke werkloosheid wordt door centrale bank gebruikt als beleidsinstrument _______________ 28
4.8 Soorten werkloosheid _______________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.8.1 Vrijwillige vs onvrijwillige werkloosheid____________________________________________________________ 28
4.8.2 Kortstondige vs langdurige werkloosheid __________________________________________________________ 28
4.9 Gevolgen van werkloosheid __________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.9.1 Voor het individu ________________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.9.2 Voor de maatschappij ___________________________________________________________________________ 29
4.10 Samenvatting _____________________________________________________________________________________ 29
5 Sparen en investeren __________________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.1 Inleiding ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.1.1 Spaarders vs leners _____________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.2 Het financiële systeem ______________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1 Financiële markten______________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1.1 Markt voor obligaties ________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1.2 Markt voor aandelen ________________________________________________________________________ 32
5.2.2 Financiële tussenpersonen ______________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.2.1 Bank _______________________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.2.2 Investeringsfondsen _________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.3 Andere financiële producten _____________________________________________________________________ 33
5.3 Actuele waarde _____________________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.4 Risico ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 34
5.4.1 Verzekering _____________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.4.2 Diversificatie ___________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.4.3 Risico prijzen ___________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.5 Beleid______________________________________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.1 Sparen aanmoedigen____________________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.2 Investeringen aanmoedigen ______________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.3 Overheidsfinanciën _____________________________________________________________________________ 37
2
,6 Het monetaire systeem ________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1 Geld _______________________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.1 Definitie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2 Geschiedenis van geld __________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.1 Ruileconomie _______________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.2 Metalen munten ____________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.3 Bankbiljetten _______________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.4 Nieuwe vormen van betalen __________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.3 De functies van het geld _________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.3.1 Ruilmiddel _________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.3.2 Rekeneenheid ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.3.3 Waardeopslag ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.4 Liquiditeit ______________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.5 Soorten geld ____________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.2 Geld in de economie ________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.3 Banken en geldaanbod ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.4 De rol van de centrale banken ________________________________________________________________________ 40
6.4.1 Macro-economische stabiliteit ___________________________________________________________________ 40
6.4.1.1 De openmarkttransacties ____________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.2 De rente ____________________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.3 De reserveverplichtingen ____________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.4 Quantitative easing _________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.2 Financiële stabiliteit_____________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.3 De ECB en het Eurosysteem _____________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5 Inflatie _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5.1 Historische voorbeelden_________________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5.2 Oorzaken inflatie ________________________________________________________________________________ 43
6.5.2.1 Klassieke theorie ____________________________________________________________________________ 43
6.5.2.2 Oostenrijkse theorie _________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.2.3 Het printen van geld _________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.3 Kosten van inflatie ______________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.3.1 Shoe leather cost ___________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.2 Menukosten ________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.3 Misallocatie ________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.4 Fiscale verstoringen _________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.5 Verwarring__________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.6 Redistributie van vermogen __________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.4 Deflatie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 47
7 Open economie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.1 Introductie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2 Transacties met het buitenland ______________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1 Handel in goederen en diensten __________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1.1 Netto exports _______________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1.2 Redenen van internationale handel ___________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.2 Internationale geldstromen ______________________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.2.1 Netto kapitaaluitstroom (NCO) _______________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.2.2 Handelsbalans _____________________________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.3 Wisselkoersen __________________________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.3.1 Nominale wisselkoers _______________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.3.2 Reële wisselkoers ___________________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4 Wat bepaalt de wisselkoers? _____________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4.1 Purchasing Power Parity _____________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4.2 Macro-economische theorie _________________________________________________________________ 51
7.2.5 Beleid __________________________________________________________________________________________ 52
7.2.5.1 Overheidsuitgaven __________________________________________________________________________ 53
7.2.5.2 Handelsbeleid ______________________________________________________________________________ 53
7.2.5.3 Kapitaalvlucht ______________________________________________________________________________ 54
8 Conjunctuur ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 55
3
, 8.1 Introductie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 55
8.2 Dataconcepten _____________________________________________________________________________________ 56
8.2.1 Procyclische en contracyclische variabelen _______________________________________________________ 56
8.2.2 Variabelen als indicator _________________________________________________________________________ 57
8.2.2.1 Conjunctuurklok van Nederland ______________________________________________________________ 57
8.3 Oorzaken conjunctuur ______________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.1 Huishoudens ___________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.2 Bedrijven _______________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.3 Overheid _______________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.4 Buitenland _____________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.5 Verwachtingen _________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4 Conjunctuurmodellen _______________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1 Neoklassieke theorie ____________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1.1 Aanbodzijde ________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1.2 Vraagzijde __________________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2 Neokeynesiaanse theorie ________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2.1 Aanbodzijde ________________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2.2 Vraagzijde __________________________________________________________________________________ 60
8.4.3 Real-business cycle _____________________________________________________________________________ 60
8.5 Oefening ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 60
9 Keynesiaanse theorie __________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1 Belangrijke concepten_______________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.1 Geaggregeerde vraag ____________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.2 Klassieke theorie: “full employment” _____________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.3 Keynes _________________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.4 Geplande vs. effectieve uitgaven _________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.5 Outputkloof ____________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.6 Multiplicator effect ______________________________________________________________________________ 61
10 De geaggregeerde vraag (AV) en het geaggregeerde aanbod (AA) _______________________________________ 62
10.1 Introductie _______________________________________________________________________________________ 62
10.2 De korte termijn __________________________________________________________________________________ 62
10.3 De geaggregeerde vraag (AV) _______________________________________________________________________ 62
10.3.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde vraagcurve __________________________________________________ 63
10.4 Het geaggregeerde aanbod (AA) ____________________________________________________________________ 65
10.4.1 Lange termijn _________________________________________________________________________________ 65
10.4.1.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde aanbodcurve op LT ________________________________________ 65
10.4.1.2 Een nieuw model voor de lange termijn _______________________________________________________ 67
10.4.2 Korte termijn__________________________________________________________________________________ 67
10.4.2.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde aanbodcurve op KT ________________________________________ 67
10.5 Twee oorzaken van fluctuaties _____________________________________________________________________ 68
10.5.1 Verschuiving in de geaggregeerde vraag __________________________________________________________ 69
10.5.2 Verschuiving in het geaggregeerde aanbod _______________________________________________________ 69
10.6 Neo-keynesiaanse theorie _________________________________________________________________________ 70
11 Monetair en fiscaal beleid ____________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1 Monetair beleid ___________________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.1 De geldvraag _________________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.2 Het geldaanbod _______________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.3 Link tussen de rentevoet en de AV-curve ________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.4 Monetair beleid _______________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.2 Fiscaal beleid ____________________________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.1 Overheidsuitgaven ____________________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.1.1 Hoe groot is de verschuiving? ________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.2 Belastingen___________________________________________________________________________________ 73
11.2.2.1 Hoe groot is de verschuiving? ________________________________________________________________ 73
11.3 Beleid om de economie te stabiliseren ______________________________________________________________ 73
11.3.1 Argumenten voor actief stabiliseringsbeleid _____________________________________________________ 73
11.3.2 Argumenten tegen actief stabiliseringsbeleid ____________________________________________________ 73
4
Samenvatting Macro-economie
Inhoudsopgave
1 Wat is macro-economie? ________________________________________________________________________________ 6
1.1 Twee grote stromingen _______________________________________________________________________________ 6
1.2 Nut van macro-economie_____________________________________________________________________________ 7
1.3 Controverse macro-economie ________________________________________________________________________ 7
1.4 Economische stromen _______________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.1 Adam Smith _____________________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2 Industriële revolutie ______________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2.1 Marxisme ___________________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.2.2 Oostenrijkse school __________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.3 Economische crisis van de jaren ‘30 _______________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.3.1 John Maynard Keynes ________________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.4 Jaren ’70 – ’80: Monetarisme ______________________________________________________________________ 8
1.4.5 Crisis van 2008: Moderne monetaire theorie ________________________________________________________ 8
1.5 Theorie en empirie ___________________________________________________________________________________ 9
2 BBP en Inflatie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1 BBP________________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1.1 Definitie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 10
2.1.1.1 Open economie _____________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.2 De marktwaarde … __________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.3 … van alle … ________________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.4 … finale … __________________________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.5 … goederen en diensten … ___________________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.6 … die geproduceerd worden … _______________________________________________________________ 11
2.1.1.7 … in een land … _____________________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.1.8 … binnen een bepaalde periode. _____________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.2 Andere manieren om inkomen te meten___________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.3 Componenten van het BBP ______________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.4 Vergelijking BBP van landen ______________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.5 Reëel vs nominaal ______________________________________________________________________________ 12
2.1.5.1 Reëel BBP __________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.5.2 BBP Deflator ________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.5.3 Oefening ___________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.6 BBP groeivoet___________________________________________________________________________________ 13
2.1.7 Limieten van BBP als maatstaf ___________________________________________________________________ 13
2.2 Inflatie _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 14
2.2.1 Consumptieprijzenindex _________________________________________________________________________ 14
2.2.1.1 Hoe wordt de consumptieprijzenindex berekend? ______________________________________________ 14
2.2.1.2 Problemen met het meten van de consumptieprijzenindex ______________________________________ 15
2.2.2 In België worden er nog andere indexen gebruikt ___________________________________________________ 15
2.2.3 Indexering ______________________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.3.1 Loonindexatie ______________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.3.2 Huurindexering _____________________________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.4 Verschil tussen BBP deflator en de CPI ____________________________________________________________ 16
2.2.5 Economische variabelen corrigeren voor inflatie ___________________________________________________ 16
2.2.6 Reële en nominale rente _________________________________________________________________________ 17
3 Economische groei ____________________________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1 Waarom zijn sommige landen arm en andere rijk? _____________________________________________________ 18
3.1.1 Economische groei in BBP/capita ________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1.2 Trend in groeivoeten_____________________________________________________________________________ 18
3.1.3 Kleine verschillen, grote invloed __________________________________________________________________ 19
3.2 Neoklassieke groeitheorie ___________________________________________________________________________ 19
3.2.1 Wat bepaalt productiviteit? ______________________________________________________________________ 19
, 3.3 Solow-Swan model _________________________________________________________________________________ 20
3.3.1 Oorzaken van groei ______________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.3.2 Het endogene groeimodel _______________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4 Hoe kan beleid groei beïnvloeden? ___________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.1 Investeringen ___________________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.2 Menselijk kapitaal _______________________________________________________________________________ 21
3.4.3 Technologische ontwikkeling ____________________________________________________________________ 22
3.4.4 Buitenlandse handel ____________________________________________________________________________ 22
4 Werkloosheid__________________________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.1 Wat is werkloosheid? _______________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2 Hoe wordt werkloosheid gemeten? ___________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2.1 Administratieve data ____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.2.2 Labour force survey _____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.3 Definities __________________________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.4 Natuurlijke werkloosheid ____________________________________________________________________________ 23
4.5 Oorzaken werkloosheid _____________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.5.1 Frictiewerkloosheid _____________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.5.2 Structurele werkloosheid ________________________________________________________________________ 24
4.6 Theorieën i.v.m. structurele werkloosheid _____________________________________________________________ 24
4.6.1 Neo-klassieke theorie: marktimperfecties _________________________________________________________ 24
4.6.1.1 Minimumloon_______________________________________________________________________________ 25
4.6.1.2 Vakbonden _________________________________________________________________________________ 25
4.6.1.3 Efficiency wages = efficiënte lonen ___________________________________________________________ 26
4.6.1.4 Werkloosheidsuitkeringen ___________________________________________________________________ 26
4.6.2 Keynesiaanse theorie: te weinig vraag _____________________________________________________________ 27
4.6.3 Neo-klassieke synthese _________________________________________________________________________ 27
4.6.4 Marxisme ______________________________________________________________________________________ 27
4.7 Bestaat natuurlijke werkloosheid? ____________________________________________________________________ 27
4.7.1.1 Reden waarom natuurlijke werkloosheid wijzigt ________________________________________________ 27
4.7.1.2 Natuurlijke werkloosheid wordt door centrale bank gebruikt als beleidsinstrument _______________ 28
4.8 Soorten werkloosheid _______________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.8.1 Vrijwillige vs onvrijwillige werkloosheid____________________________________________________________ 28
4.8.2 Kortstondige vs langdurige werkloosheid __________________________________________________________ 28
4.9 Gevolgen van werkloosheid __________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.9.1 Voor het individu ________________________________________________________________________________ 28
4.9.2 Voor de maatschappij ___________________________________________________________________________ 29
4.10 Samenvatting _____________________________________________________________________________________ 29
5 Sparen en investeren __________________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.1 Inleiding ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.1.1 Spaarders vs leners _____________________________________________________________________________ 30
5.2 Het financiële systeem ______________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1 Financiële markten______________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1.1 Markt voor obligaties ________________________________________________________________________ 31
5.2.1.2 Markt voor aandelen ________________________________________________________________________ 32
5.2.2 Financiële tussenpersonen ______________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.2.1 Bank _______________________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.2.2 Investeringsfondsen _________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.2.3 Andere financiële producten _____________________________________________________________________ 33
5.3 Actuele waarde _____________________________________________________________________________________ 33
5.4 Risico ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 34
5.4.1 Verzekering _____________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.4.2 Diversificatie ___________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.4.3 Risico prijzen ___________________________________________________________________________________ 35
5.5 Beleid______________________________________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.1 Sparen aanmoedigen____________________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.2 Investeringen aanmoedigen ______________________________________________________________________ 36
5.5.3 Overheidsfinanciën _____________________________________________________________________________ 37
2
,6 Het monetaire systeem ________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1 Geld _______________________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.1 Definitie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2 Geschiedenis van geld __________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.1 Ruileconomie _______________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.2 Metalen munten ____________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.3 Bankbiljetten _______________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.2.4 Nieuwe vormen van betalen __________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.3 De functies van het geld _________________________________________________________________________ 38
6.1.3.1 Ruilmiddel _________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.3.2 Rekeneenheid ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.3.3 Waardeopslag ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.4 Liquiditeit ______________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.1.5 Soorten geld ____________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.2 Geld in de economie ________________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.3 Banken en geldaanbod ______________________________________________________________________________ 39
6.4 De rol van de centrale banken ________________________________________________________________________ 40
6.4.1 Macro-economische stabiliteit ___________________________________________________________________ 40
6.4.1.1 De openmarkttransacties ____________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.2 De rente ____________________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.3 De reserveverplichtingen ____________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.1.4 Quantitative easing _________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.2 Financiële stabiliteit_____________________________________________________________________________ 41
6.4.3 De ECB en het Eurosysteem _____________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5 Inflatie _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5.1 Historische voorbeelden_________________________________________________________________________ 42
6.5.2 Oorzaken inflatie ________________________________________________________________________________ 43
6.5.2.1 Klassieke theorie ____________________________________________________________________________ 43
6.5.2.2 Oostenrijkse theorie _________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.2.3 Het printen van geld _________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.3 Kosten van inflatie ______________________________________________________________________________ 45
6.5.3.1 Shoe leather cost ___________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.2 Menukosten ________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.3 Misallocatie ________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.4 Fiscale verstoringen _________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.5 Verwarring__________________________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.3.6 Redistributie van vermogen __________________________________________________________________ 46
6.5.4 Deflatie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 47
7 Open economie ________________________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.1 Introductie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2 Transacties met het buitenland ______________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1 Handel in goederen en diensten __________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1.1 Netto exports _______________________________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.1.2 Redenen van internationale handel ___________________________________________________________ 48
7.2.2 Internationale geldstromen ______________________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.2.1 Netto kapitaaluitstroom (NCO) _______________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.2.2 Handelsbalans _____________________________________________________________________________ 49
7.2.3 Wisselkoersen __________________________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.3.1 Nominale wisselkoers _______________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.3.2 Reële wisselkoers ___________________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4 Wat bepaalt de wisselkoers? _____________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4.1 Purchasing Power Parity _____________________________________________________________________ 50
7.2.4.2 Macro-economische theorie _________________________________________________________________ 51
7.2.5 Beleid __________________________________________________________________________________________ 52
7.2.5.1 Overheidsuitgaven __________________________________________________________________________ 53
7.2.5.2 Handelsbeleid ______________________________________________________________________________ 53
7.2.5.3 Kapitaalvlucht ______________________________________________________________________________ 54
8 Conjunctuur ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 55
3
, 8.1 Introductie _________________________________________________________________________________________ 55
8.2 Dataconcepten _____________________________________________________________________________________ 56
8.2.1 Procyclische en contracyclische variabelen _______________________________________________________ 56
8.2.2 Variabelen als indicator _________________________________________________________________________ 57
8.2.2.1 Conjunctuurklok van Nederland ______________________________________________________________ 57
8.3 Oorzaken conjunctuur ______________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.1 Huishoudens ___________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.2 Bedrijven _______________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.3 Overheid _______________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.4 Buitenland _____________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.3.5 Verwachtingen _________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4 Conjunctuurmodellen _______________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1 Neoklassieke theorie ____________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1.1 Aanbodzijde ________________________________________________________________________________ 58
8.4.1.2 Vraagzijde __________________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2 Neokeynesiaanse theorie ________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2.1 Aanbodzijde ________________________________________________________________________________ 59
8.4.2.2 Vraagzijde __________________________________________________________________________________ 60
8.4.3 Real-business cycle _____________________________________________________________________________ 60
8.5 Oefening ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 60
9 Keynesiaanse theorie __________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1 Belangrijke concepten_______________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.1 Geaggregeerde vraag ____________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.2 Klassieke theorie: “full employment” _____________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.3 Keynes _________________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.4 Geplande vs. effectieve uitgaven _________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.5 Outputkloof ____________________________________________________________________________________ 61
9.1.6 Multiplicator effect ______________________________________________________________________________ 61
10 De geaggregeerde vraag (AV) en het geaggregeerde aanbod (AA) _______________________________________ 62
10.1 Introductie _______________________________________________________________________________________ 62
10.2 De korte termijn __________________________________________________________________________________ 62
10.3 De geaggregeerde vraag (AV) _______________________________________________________________________ 62
10.3.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde vraagcurve __________________________________________________ 63
10.4 Het geaggregeerde aanbod (AA) ____________________________________________________________________ 65
10.4.1 Lange termijn _________________________________________________________________________________ 65
10.4.1.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde aanbodcurve op LT ________________________________________ 65
10.4.1.2 Een nieuw model voor de lange termijn _______________________________________________________ 67
10.4.2 Korte termijn__________________________________________________________________________________ 67
10.4.2.1 Verschuiving van de geaggregeerde aanbodcurve op KT ________________________________________ 67
10.5 Twee oorzaken van fluctuaties _____________________________________________________________________ 68
10.5.1 Verschuiving in de geaggregeerde vraag __________________________________________________________ 69
10.5.2 Verschuiving in het geaggregeerde aanbod _______________________________________________________ 69
10.6 Neo-keynesiaanse theorie _________________________________________________________________________ 70
11 Monetair en fiscaal beleid ____________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1 Monetair beleid ___________________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.1 De geldvraag _________________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.2 Het geldaanbod _______________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.3 Link tussen de rentevoet en de AV-curve ________________________________________________________ 71
11.1.4 Monetair beleid _______________________________________________________________________________ 71
11.2 Fiscaal beleid ____________________________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.1 Overheidsuitgaven ____________________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.1.1 Hoe groot is de verschuiving? ________________________________________________________________ 72
11.2.2 Belastingen___________________________________________________________________________________ 73
11.2.2.1 Hoe groot is de verschuiving? ________________________________________________________________ 73
11.3 Beleid om de economie te stabiliseren ______________________________________________________________ 73
11.3.1 Argumenten voor actief stabiliseringsbeleid _____________________________________________________ 73
11.3.2 Argumenten tegen actief stabiliseringsbeleid ____________________________________________________ 73
4
