KI1.8: Theoretical frameworks can be used to understand the predication, impact and
management of tectonic hazards
a. Prediction and forecasting (P: role of scientists) accuracy depend on the type and
location of the tectonic hazard
Earthquakes
- Seismometers can detect stress in the rock
o E.g. Haiti installed a seismometer in response to the 2010 earthquake
- Seismic gap theory is used to predict where the next quake might occur along a fault
o E.g. In Turkey, quakes have been occurring along the North Anatolian fault, getting
closer and closer to the city of Istanbul. Stress that’s released in one place is
transferred to another
- Animals and birds sometimes detect danger before humans, but only just before
- Foreshocks sometimes precede larger events, but these don’t follow a set pattern
- The absence of an earthquake for a long time often means the next one will be strong
o E.g. San Andreas fault- a study in 2006 showed that sufficient energy has built up for
the next quake to be >7.0. Moreover, the last few quakes here have been in the N
and centre of the fault, so the next is expected to be in the South (near LA)
- Some faults are unknown before the quake occurs
o E.g. Christchurch earthquake fault
Volcanoes
- Will always be in the same place (unlike earthquakes, so easier to predict (a bit)
- Detectors monitor gas concentrations in atmosphere. SO2 increases before an eruption
- Evidence of past eruptions can be used to show which areas will be worst affected by an
eruption
Tsunamis
- Waves in the sea have a long wavelength and low height, so often can’t be detected
- Waves move so fast that although they can be detected, can’t evacuate
- Can detect the earthquake, which caused the tsunami, which helps prediction- if it was a
‘tsunamigenic’ quake. H/ever, tsunamis aren’t always caused by earthquakes
b. The importance of different stages in the hazard management cycle (response, recovery,
mitigation, preparedness) (P: role of emergency planners)
Response - Response must be fast
- International aid
- Refugee shelters- food and water
- Military deployed
- Healthcare
Recovery - Rebuilding damaged and destroyed infrastructure
- Supporting population in finding new jobs
- Limiting risk of this happening again
- Rehabilitating injured (physically and mentally)
Mitigation - Quake proof buildings
management of tectonic hazards
a. Prediction and forecasting (P: role of scientists) accuracy depend on the type and
location of the tectonic hazard
Earthquakes
- Seismometers can detect stress in the rock
o E.g. Haiti installed a seismometer in response to the 2010 earthquake
- Seismic gap theory is used to predict where the next quake might occur along a fault
o E.g. In Turkey, quakes have been occurring along the North Anatolian fault, getting
closer and closer to the city of Istanbul. Stress that’s released in one place is
transferred to another
- Animals and birds sometimes detect danger before humans, but only just before
- Foreshocks sometimes precede larger events, but these don’t follow a set pattern
- The absence of an earthquake for a long time often means the next one will be strong
o E.g. San Andreas fault- a study in 2006 showed that sufficient energy has built up for
the next quake to be >7.0. Moreover, the last few quakes here have been in the N
and centre of the fault, so the next is expected to be in the South (near LA)
- Some faults are unknown before the quake occurs
o E.g. Christchurch earthquake fault
Volcanoes
- Will always be in the same place (unlike earthquakes, so easier to predict (a bit)
- Detectors monitor gas concentrations in atmosphere. SO2 increases before an eruption
- Evidence of past eruptions can be used to show which areas will be worst affected by an
eruption
Tsunamis
- Waves in the sea have a long wavelength and low height, so often can’t be detected
- Waves move so fast that although they can be detected, can’t evacuate
- Can detect the earthquake, which caused the tsunami, which helps prediction- if it was a
‘tsunamigenic’ quake. H/ever, tsunamis aren’t always caused by earthquakes
b. The importance of different stages in the hazard management cycle (response, recovery,
mitigation, preparedness) (P: role of emergency planners)
Response - Response must be fast
- International aid
- Refugee shelters- food and water
- Military deployed
- Healthcare
Recovery - Rebuilding damaged and destroyed infrastructure
- Supporting population in finding new jobs
- Limiting risk of this happening again
- Rehabilitating injured (physically and mentally)
Mitigation - Quake proof buildings
