519,682 elected officials in the United States as of 2012
4 year cycle in US Politics
- November 2016; Presidential election and congress
- January 2017; Inauguration of New president and new congress
- November 2018; Mid-Term election
- January 2019; Inauguration of New Congress
- Early 2020; Both parties hold Primaries to select presidential candidate
- July 2020; Parties have National Convention to confirm candidate
- November 2020; Presidential election and congress
- January 2021; Inauguration of New President and New congress
Invisible Primaries
- Period before primaries start, theoretically can be as soon as previous election stopped
- Aims: media coverage/name recognition -> social media, news, radio, TV
- Can be around 12 debates before getting to actual primaries
- Secure fundraising, campaigns are expensive -> endorsement, organisation all over America
- Support from party and public
- Look presidential/ front runner
Candidate Televised party debates Fundraising Front runners
announcements
29 different candidates 2015-2016, so many Ben Carson (Rep) raised Biden was ahead in
announced running for republican candiates, $58m during the nearly all the Dem polls
2020 dem nomination, could no all fit one invisible primaries in by December 2019,
18 pulled out before platform in TV debate, 2 2015-16; Jeb Bush (Rep) and received twice as
voting primaries debates running back to raised $33.5m many endorsements
actually began in Feb back on many networks from leading Dem
202 politicians compared to
Sanders
12 April 2015 – Hilary 2016 Ben Carson (R), an In Q4 of 2019 Michael Extremely important to
Clinton announced her unsuccessful candidate, Bloomberg (D) raised finish the invisible
intention to run for said on debates that: $200m (almost all spent primary, top of the
President. “this format is not the on adverts), and Tom opinion polls. Most
25 April 2019 Biden best format for Steyer (D) raised candidates who were
announced his convincing anyone of $156m. Biden raise top in the polls before
nomination. anything. We’re dealing $23m (5th highest) the primaries are
Earliest announcement with soundbites as confirmed as the
of bid for 2020 was in opposed to being able nominee by the end, eg
July 2017! (A Dem to explain something in Trump and Clinton in
congressman) depth 2016
There were a total of 12 In the invisible primaries In 2016 Trump had a 16
Democrat TV debates in candidates use a ‘war point poll lead over his
2019- 20. As the chest’ to campaign + nearest rival (Ted Cruz)
, debates go on, only advertise, which by the end of the
those candidates improves their poll invisible primaries;
running at a certain ratings. As their poll Hilary Clinton had a 14
level (4% at least in the ratings improve, they point lead over Bernie
polls) will qualify. In attract more money, Sand
many of them the which improves their
candidates turned on ability to campaign +
Biden who was criticized advertise. Money is
for his performance at called “the mother’s
times milk of politics.”
In the seventh By January 2016 Clinton In 2016 Trump had a 16
Democrat TV debate in had raised $130m to point poll lead over his
Jan 2020, Elizabeth Bernie Sanders’ $96m nearest rival (Ted Cruz)
Warren had a falling out By the end of by the end of the
with Bernie Sanders, September 2019, invisible primaries;
and was recorded Sanders had raised Hilary Clinton had a 14
saying to him $60m (1st place for point lead over Bernie
afterwards “I think you amount), Biden was 5th Sand
just called me a liar on
national TV”
At the end of January
2020 opinion polls
showed a close race
between Biden and
Sanders for the
Democratic nomination,
Warren in 3rd
In December 2007
Hilary Clinton had a 15
point lead over Obama
in the Democrat polls,
and John McCain was
third in the Rep polls ,
10 points behind Rudy
Giuliani
-Each state can do what it wants for its primary
Primary: Vote for who should be a candidate, 2 specific functions:
1. Show popularity of presidential candidates
2. Choose delegates to go to the national party conventions
-Run under state law, means that a great number of variations exist
Caucuses: A meeting, everyone in a room, try to get everyone to agree as to who their candidate is, all
from same party
Key Things to remember
- Each state controls voting within that state -> each state has its own rues about primaries and
caucuses
- Also each party runs it own primaries and caucuses in individual ways
- Are potentially 100 different primary and caucus system in the USA and some systems are
“winner takes all” and some are “proportional”
- Whoever wins state primary/caucus secures delegates -> go to national party conventions to
then vote for the candidate
Caucuses
- States typically geographically large and thinly populated
- 2016, republicans held them in 10 states, democrats held them in 14
- 202, democrats held them in 4 states
- Would-be voters attend a meeting rather than go to a polling statio, turnout generally lower in
caucuses than in primaries, those who do turn out are disproportionately more ideological than
primary voters
- Tend to favour more ideological candidates
, Timing of primaries
- States must decide to hold their primary, national parties usually lay down earliest post dates
(mid January to beginning of June)
- Some states schedule their contest early, on a day where no other primaries are being held,
give their primaries prominence
- Coincide with other primaries, creating a regional primary -> Super Tuesday, First Tuesday in
March 2020, 14 states had their primaries together
Types of Primary: Closed primaries and open primaries
- Any registered voter can vote n a primary, some states when register, asked to declare party
affiliation
- Closed primary: only registered democrats can vote in the democrat primary ]
- Cross over voting: democrat voters can opt to participate us republican primary and vice versa
- Modified primaries: allow those who have registered as independents to vote in either party’s
primary
- New Jersey primary 2020
- Can be classified according to how delegates to the national party conventions where chosen
- Candidates win delegates n proportion to the votes they get -> known as proportional primaries
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
Policies can be seen Complicated and long
Voter choice Lower turnout -> caucuses
Weed out the weaker candidates Crossover voting
Decide how electable a person is Party divisions
Democratic overload -> too much choice?
Front Loading: A state schedules its presidential primaries and caucuses earlier in the nomination cycle
in an attempt to increase their importance
Closed Primary: A primary where only registered democrats can vote in democrat I primary and vice
versa
Open Primary: A primary in which any voter can vote in either parties prominence
Incumbent: A person who currently holds an office, general rule incumbents stand a greater chance of
re-election
Republicans New Hampshire primary, Iowa caucuses 2008, who won Super Tuesday, who won overall
Super Delegates
- 2016, delegates who are not tied to vote how the state voted
National convention
- Party conference on crack
- July or August of each year each party holds a national convention, never held on same days
due to tv coverage
- Official role:
1. select presidential and vice presidential candidate
2. Decide and promote the policy platform
- Other functions: Heal division, rally the party, publicity of the candidate
Vice President picking
- Balance ticket: appeal, Kamala 2020, Biden 2008, Pence 2016
- Potential in government , Biden 2008-> help get legislative agenda through the senate as been
there for a long time
- Party unity, appealing to more people in the party
4 year cycle in US Politics
- November 2016; Presidential election and congress
- January 2017; Inauguration of New president and new congress
- November 2018; Mid-Term election
- January 2019; Inauguration of New Congress
- Early 2020; Both parties hold Primaries to select presidential candidate
- July 2020; Parties have National Convention to confirm candidate
- November 2020; Presidential election and congress
- January 2021; Inauguration of New President and New congress
Invisible Primaries
- Period before primaries start, theoretically can be as soon as previous election stopped
- Aims: media coverage/name recognition -> social media, news, radio, TV
- Can be around 12 debates before getting to actual primaries
- Secure fundraising, campaigns are expensive -> endorsement, organisation all over America
- Support from party and public
- Look presidential/ front runner
Candidate Televised party debates Fundraising Front runners
announcements
29 different candidates 2015-2016, so many Ben Carson (Rep) raised Biden was ahead in
announced running for republican candiates, $58m during the nearly all the Dem polls
2020 dem nomination, could no all fit one invisible primaries in by December 2019,
18 pulled out before platform in TV debate, 2 2015-16; Jeb Bush (Rep) and received twice as
voting primaries debates running back to raised $33.5m many endorsements
actually began in Feb back on many networks from leading Dem
202 politicians compared to
Sanders
12 April 2015 – Hilary 2016 Ben Carson (R), an In Q4 of 2019 Michael Extremely important to
Clinton announced her unsuccessful candidate, Bloomberg (D) raised finish the invisible
intention to run for said on debates that: $200m (almost all spent primary, top of the
President. “this format is not the on adverts), and Tom opinion polls. Most
25 April 2019 Biden best format for Steyer (D) raised candidates who were
announced his convincing anyone of $156m. Biden raise top in the polls before
nomination. anything. We’re dealing $23m (5th highest) the primaries are
Earliest announcement with soundbites as confirmed as the
of bid for 2020 was in opposed to being able nominee by the end, eg
July 2017! (A Dem to explain something in Trump and Clinton in
congressman) depth 2016
There were a total of 12 In the invisible primaries In 2016 Trump had a 16
Democrat TV debates in candidates use a ‘war point poll lead over his
2019- 20. As the chest’ to campaign + nearest rival (Ted Cruz)
, debates go on, only advertise, which by the end of the
those candidates improves their poll invisible primaries;
running at a certain ratings. As their poll Hilary Clinton had a 14
level (4% at least in the ratings improve, they point lead over Bernie
polls) will qualify. In attract more money, Sand
many of them the which improves their
candidates turned on ability to campaign +
Biden who was criticized advertise. Money is
for his performance at called “the mother’s
times milk of politics.”
In the seventh By January 2016 Clinton In 2016 Trump had a 16
Democrat TV debate in had raised $130m to point poll lead over his
Jan 2020, Elizabeth Bernie Sanders’ $96m nearest rival (Ted Cruz)
Warren had a falling out By the end of by the end of the
with Bernie Sanders, September 2019, invisible primaries;
and was recorded Sanders had raised Hilary Clinton had a 14
saying to him $60m (1st place for point lead over Bernie
afterwards “I think you amount), Biden was 5th Sand
just called me a liar on
national TV”
At the end of January
2020 opinion polls
showed a close race
between Biden and
Sanders for the
Democratic nomination,
Warren in 3rd
In December 2007
Hilary Clinton had a 15
point lead over Obama
in the Democrat polls,
and John McCain was
third in the Rep polls ,
10 points behind Rudy
Giuliani
-Each state can do what it wants for its primary
Primary: Vote for who should be a candidate, 2 specific functions:
1. Show popularity of presidential candidates
2. Choose delegates to go to the national party conventions
-Run under state law, means that a great number of variations exist
Caucuses: A meeting, everyone in a room, try to get everyone to agree as to who their candidate is, all
from same party
Key Things to remember
- Each state controls voting within that state -> each state has its own rues about primaries and
caucuses
- Also each party runs it own primaries and caucuses in individual ways
- Are potentially 100 different primary and caucus system in the USA and some systems are
“winner takes all” and some are “proportional”
- Whoever wins state primary/caucus secures delegates -> go to national party conventions to
then vote for the candidate
Caucuses
- States typically geographically large and thinly populated
- 2016, republicans held them in 10 states, democrats held them in 14
- 202, democrats held them in 4 states
- Would-be voters attend a meeting rather than go to a polling statio, turnout generally lower in
caucuses than in primaries, those who do turn out are disproportionately more ideological than
primary voters
- Tend to favour more ideological candidates
, Timing of primaries
- States must decide to hold their primary, national parties usually lay down earliest post dates
(mid January to beginning of June)
- Some states schedule their contest early, on a day where no other primaries are being held,
give their primaries prominence
- Coincide with other primaries, creating a regional primary -> Super Tuesday, First Tuesday in
March 2020, 14 states had their primaries together
Types of Primary: Closed primaries and open primaries
- Any registered voter can vote n a primary, some states when register, asked to declare party
affiliation
- Closed primary: only registered democrats can vote in the democrat primary ]
- Cross over voting: democrat voters can opt to participate us republican primary and vice versa
- Modified primaries: allow those who have registered as independents to vote in either party’s
primary
- New Jersey primary 2020
- Can be classified according to how delegates to the national party conventions where chosen
- Candidates win delegates n proportion to the votes they get -> known as proportional primaries
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
Policies can be seen Complicated and long
Voter choice Lower turnout -> caucuses
Weed out the weaker candidates Crossover voting
Decide how electable a person is Party divisions
Democratic overload -> too much choice?
Front Loading: A state schedules its presidential primaries and caucuses earlier in the nomination cycle
in an attempt to increase their importance
Closed Primary: A primary where only registered democrats can vote in democrat I primary and vice
versa
Open Primary: A primary in which any voter can vote in either parties prominence
Incumbent: A person who currently holds an office, general rule incumbents stand a greater chance of
re-election
Republicans New Hampshire primary, Iowa caucuses 2008, who won Super Tuesday, who won overall
Super Delegates
- 2016, delegates who are not tied to vote how the state voted
National convention
- Party conference on crack
- July or August of each year each party holds a national convention, never held on same days
due to tv coverage
- Official role:
1. select presidential and vice presidential candidate
2. Decide and promote the policy platform
- Other functions: Heal division, rally the party, publicity of the candidate
Vice President picking
- Balance ticket: appeal, Kamala 2020, Biden 2008, Pence 2016
- Potential in government , Biden 2008-> help get legislative agenda through the senate as been
there for a long time
- Party unity, appealing to more people in the party
