ECS2603/ECS2604 — Environmental Economics UNISA
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA
ECS2603 / ECS2604 — Environmental Economics
Climate Change, Environmental Economics
& Environmental Policy
Modules ECS2603 / ECS2604
Subject Environmental Economics
Institution University of South Africa
(UNISA)
Level Second Year · NQF Level 6
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 1
,ECS2603/ECS2604 — Environmental Economics UNISA
Question 1: Climate Change and the 2022 Southern Africa Floods
1.1 Assessment of the Evidence
Yes, the excerpt provides sufficient evidence that human-caused climate change worsened the
floods that devastated parts of South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The evidence is
grounded in rigorous scientific analysis conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA),
an internationally recognised body applying peer-reviewed methodologies to attribute extreme
weather events to climate change (World Weather Attribution, 2022).
"Our continued burning of fossil fuels is not only increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall,
but turning events that would have happened anyway into something much more severe." —
Izidine Pinto, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (WWA, 2022)
The most compelling finding is that the region received a year's worth of rainfall within only 10
days — a statistical anomaly impossible to explain through natural variability alone. Co-author
Izidine Pinto confirmed that a 40% increase in rainfall intensity would be impossible to explain
without anthropogenic climate change (WWA, 2022). This constitutes direct quantitative
attribution linking the flood's severity to greenhouse gas emissions.
The excerpt also acknowledges the La Niña weather phenomenon, which naturally brings wetter
conditions to southern Africa, but explicitly notes that La Niña was operating within a much
warmer atmosphere — demonstrating additive causation. Natural events, compounded by a
climate-changed atmosphere, produce outcomes far more severe than would otherwise occur
(Stott, 2016). The physical destruction documented — submerged homes, destroyed hospitals,
swept-away bridges across three countries — is consistent with predicted consequences of
intensified rainfall under climate change scenarios (IPCC, 2021).
Evidence Element Description Scientific Basis
Rainfall Anomaly Year's rainfall in 10 days Statistically extreme; consistent
with climate projections (IPCC,
2021)
40% Intensity Impossble to explain without human- Quantitative attribution by
Increase caused climate change WWA peer-reviewed methods
(WWA, 2022)
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 2
, ECS2603/ECS2604 — Environmental Economics UNISA
Evidence Element Description Scientific Basis
La Niña Natural event within a warmer Atmospheric warming
Amplification atmosphere — additive causation amplifies natural variability
(Stott, 2016)
Physical Destruction Multi-country devastation across SA, Scale consistent with climate-
Mozambique, Zimbabwe change flood projections
(IPCC, 2021)
1.2 Impact of Extreme Weather on Economic Development
Extreme weather events such as the 2022 southern Africa floods have far-reaching consequences
for economic development across multiple dimensions (Tol, 2018).
Economic
Impact Mechanism Long-Term Effect
Dimension
Physical Capital Roads, bridges, hospitals, housing Reconstruction diverts spending
destroyed; productive capacity away from education and health
reduced investment
Agriculture Crops destroyed, topsoil eroded, Food insecurity; reduced
farming communities displaced agricultural GDP and rural
livelihoods
Healthcare Clinics and hospitals destroyed; Reduced labour productivity;
cholera and malaria outbreaks follow higher mortality; lower human
capital formation
Human Capital Displacement interrupts schooling and Long-term reduction in workforce
employment access skills and productivity
Foreign Perceived high physical risk deters Lower FDI reduces growth in
Investment capital inflows infrastructure and employment
over time
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 3
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA
ECS2603 / ECS2604 — Environmental Economics
Climate Change, Environmental Economics
& Environmental Policy
Modules ECS2603 / ECS2604
Subject Environmental Economics
Institution University of South Africa
(UNISA)
Level Second Year · NQF Level 6
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 1
,ECS2603/ECS2604 — Environmental Economics UNISA
Question 1: Climate Change and the 2022 Southern Africa Floods
1.1 Assessment of the Evidence
Yes, the excerpt provides sufficient evidence that human-caused climate change worsened the
floods that devastated parts of South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The evidence is
grounded in rigorous scientific analysis conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA),
an internationally recognised body applying peer-reviewed methodologies to attribute extreme
weather events to climate change (World Weather Attribution, 2022).
"Our continued burning of fossil fuels is not only increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall,
but turning events that would have happened anyway into something much more severe." —
Izidine Pinto, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (WWA, 2022)
The most compelling finding is that the region received a year's worth of rainfall within only 10
days — a statistical anomaly impossible to explain through natural variability alone. Co-author
Izidine Pinto confirmed that a 40% increase in rainfall intensity would be impossible to explain
without anthropogenic climate change (WWA, 2022). This constitutes direct quantitative
attribution linking the flood's severity to greenhouse gas emissions.
The excerpt also acknowledges the La Niña weather phenomenon, which naturally brings wetter
conditions to southern Africa, but explicitly notes that La Niña was operating within a much
warmer atmosphere — demonstrating additive causation. Natural events, compounded by a
climate-changed atmosphere, produce outcomes far more severe than would otherwise occur
(Stott, 2016). The physical destruction documented — submerged homes, destroyed hospitals,
swept-away bridges across three countries — is consistent with predicted consequences of
intensified rainfall under climate change scenarios (IPCC, 2021).
Evidence Element Description Scientific Basis
Rainfall Anomaly Year's rainfall in 10 days Statistically extreme; consistent
with climate projections (IPCC,
2021)
40% Intensity Impossble to explain without human- Quantitative attribution by
Increase caused climate change WWA peer-reviewed methods
(WWA, 2022)
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 2
, ECS2603/ECS2604 — Environmental Economics UNISA
Evidence Element Description Scientific Basis
La Niña Natural event within a warmer Atmospheric warming
Amplification atmosphere — additive causation amplifies natural variability
(Stott, 2016)
Physical Destruction Multi-country devastation across SA, Scale consistent with climate-
Mozambique, Zimbabwe change flood projections
(IPCC, 2021)
1.2 Impact of Extreme Weather on Economic Development
Extreme weather events such as the 2022 southern Africa floods have far-reaching consequences
for economic development across multiple dimensions (Tol, 2018).
Economic
Impact Mechanism Long-Term Effect
Dimension
Physical Capital Roads, bridges, hospitals, housing Reconstruction diverts spending
destroyed; productive capacity away from education and health
reduced investment
Agriculture Crops destroyed, topsoil eroded, Food insecurity; reduced
farming communities displaced agricultural GDP and rural
livelihoods
Healthcare Clinics and hospitals destroyed; Reduced labour productivity;
cholera and malaria outbreaks follow higher mortality; lower human
capital formation
Human Capital Displacement interrupts schooling and Long-term reduction in workforce
employment access skills and productivity
Foreign Perceived high physical risk deters Lower FDI reduces growth in
Investment capital inflows infrastructure and employment
over time
Environmental Economics — Academic Assignment Page 3
