Traffic Psychology & Sustained Mobility Summary Slides
Manon Kooning, 19-10-2024
Week 1 – Theories & Models in Traffic Psychology
Key Concepts:
• Engineers create mathematical descriptive models, while psychologists develop conceptual
models.
• A good psychological model should:
o Be descriptive.
o Be predictive, allowing it to be falsifiable (testable).
Overview of Traffic Psychology Models and Theories – Many proposed, none widly accepted
1. Skill Models
• Focus on perceptual and motor skills what makes a driver safe, such as:
o Reaction time
o Vision
o Driver training level
• Crashes occur when task demands exceed driver skills.
• Limitations:
o These models are too simplistic.
o Studies show biographical factors (e.g., marital status, mileage, socio-economic
status) are more important in predicting crashes than psychomotor skills.
2. Attitude Theories
• Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB):
o Attitude: What I think about something.
o Subjective norm: What I think others expect from me.
o Perceived control: How much control I believe I have over my behavior.
o Intention: What I say I will do.
o Behavior: What I actually do.
• There is often a gap between intention and behavior. The intention-
bahaviour/attitude/behaviour gap
o TPB can explain intentions well, but only 10-20% of actual behavior.
, • Studies show that changing behavior is easier than changing attitudes.
o Example: Speeding was reduced by enforcement and advertising, but attitudes didn’t
change.
• Why so popular:
o Easy of research questionnaire study, large sample sizes, self-reported behaviour.
3. Utility Theories
• People aim to maximize gains and minimize losses.
• These models assume rational decision-making, often seen in economics.
• Common examples include:
o Utility Maximization
o Subjective Expected Utility
• Limitations:
o Assumes rationality, but human behavior is influenced by emotion and cognitive
biases.
o People do not always act like Homo Economicus (perfectly rational beings).
4. Risk/Motivational Theories
• Focus on how drivers perceive and adapt to risk.
o Risk = the probability of an outcome x the consequence of that outcome
• Individuals have a Target Level of Risk, if experienced risk does not equal Target Risk then
action is taken.
• Risk adaptiation (winter tyres, ABS brake system)
o Risk Homeostasis Theory (RHT):
Drivers maintain a target level of risk.
If perceived risk exceeds this target, they adapt their behavior.
Criticism: Difficult to test and doesn’t provide clear predictions Predicts
full compensation of safety measures if the underlying target risk of the
population is not changed
Implies the population learns from crashes while only a small proportion
experience a crash not specific
o Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT):
Feeling of risk is the central motivator, indicating perceived task difficulty.
Preferred range of Feeling of Risk compared to perceived level
More dynamic than RHT, adapting to changing driving conditions.
Honeostasis posits a fixed target level of task difficulty or risk
, Allostasis: better representation of changing motivational influences
of the driver (dynamic)
Risk threshold=== zero risk theory
o Zero-Risk Theory:
Argues that risk is rarely consciously experienced, a learning theory.
Drivers operate using learned safety margins (e.g., time to collision).
o Risk/Threat Avoidance Theory:
Risk is aversive and avoided through experience.
Drivers learn what is risky based on past events.
The Safety Margin Model in traffic psychology explains how drivers maintain a buffer of safety to
avoid risk. Drivers continuously monitor safety margins, such as Time to Collision (TTC) and Time to
Line Crossing (TLC), to stay within a comfort zone. When these margins shrink, drivers feel discomfort
and adjust their behavior, like slowing down or increasing distance from other vehicles.
• Drivers aim to stay within safe thresholds to avoid discomfort.
• Behavior is often automatic, with drivers subconsciously adjusting to maintain these margins.
• This model focuses on avoiding risk rather than actively seeking it, differing from models like
Risk Homeostasis Theory.
Constant perception models = risk homeostasis theory, task difficulty homeostasis, risk allostasis
theory
Threshold perception models = zero risk theory, threat avoidance theory, the multiple comfort zone
model
Rasmussen's Model is a framework used to explain human performance in complex tasks like
driving, focusing on three levels of decision-making:
1. Skill-based Level:
o Actions are highly automated and require minimal conscious effort.
o Example: Steering or maintaining lane position while driving.
2. Rule-based Level:
o Actions are based on learned rules or procedures.
o Example: Following road signs or reacting to a red traffic light (IF X, THEN Y).
3. Knowledge-based Level:
o Involves deliberate problem-solving and decision-making in unfamiliar or complex
situations.
o Example: Figuring out a detour route when a familiar road is closed.
Driving Tasks and Hierarchical Models
• Driving tasks can be understood through three levels of control:
1. Control (Low) Level:
Manon Kooning, 19-10-2024
Week 1 – Theories & Models in Traffic Psychology
Key Concepts:
• Engineers create mathematical descriptive models, while psychologists develop conceptual
models.
• A good psychological model should:
o Be descriptive.
o Be predictive, allowing it to be falsifiable (testable).
Overview of Traffic Psychology Models and Theories – Many proposed, none widly accepted
1. Skill Models
• Focus on perceptual and motor skills what makes a driver safe, such as:
o Reaction time
o Vision
o Driver training level
• Crashes occur when task demands exceed driver skills.
• Limitations:
o These models are too simplistic.
o Studies show biographical factors (e.g., marital status, mileage, socio-economic
status) are more important in predicting crashes than psychomotor skills.
2. Attitude Theories
• Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB):
o Attitude: What I think about something.
o Subjective norm: What I think others expect from me.
o Perceived control: How much control I believe I have over my behavior.
o Intention: What I say I will do.
o Behavior: What I actually do.
• There is often a gap between intention and behavior. The intention-
bahaviour/attitude/behaviour gap
o TPB can explain intentions well, but only 10-20% of actual behavior.
, • Studies show that changing behavior is easier than changing attitudes.
o Example: Speeding was reduced by enforcement and advertising, but attitudes didn’t
change.
• Why so popular:
o Easy of research questionnaire study, large sample sizes, self-reported behaviour.
3. Utility Theories
• People aim to maximize gains and minimize losses.
• These models assume rational decision-making, often seen in economics.
• Common examples include:
o Utility Maximization
o Subjective Expected Utility
• Limitations:
o Assumes rationality, but human behavior is influenced by emotion and cognitive
biases.
o People do not always act like Homo Economicus (perfectly rational beings).
4. Risk/Motivational Theories
• Focus on how drivers perceive and adapt to risk.
o Risk = the probability of an outcome x the consequence of that outcome
• Individuals have a Target Level of Risk, if experienced risk does not equal Target Risk then
action is taken.
• Risk adaptiation (winter tyres, ABS brake system)
o Risk Homeostasis Theory (RHT):
Drivers maintain a target level of risk.
If perceived risk exceeds this target, they adapt their behavior.
Criticism: Difficult to test and doesn’t provide clear predictions Predicts
full compensation of safety measures if the underlying target risk of the
population is not changed
Implies the population learns from crashes while only a small proportion
experience a crash not specific
o Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT):
Feeling of risk is the central motivator, indicating perceived task difficulty.
Preferred range of Feeling of Risk compared to perceived level
More dynamic than RHT, adapting to changing driving conditions.
Honeostasis posits a fixed target level of task difficulty or risk
, Allostasis: better representation of changing motivational influences
of the driver (dynamic)
Risk threshold=== zero risk theory
o Zero-Risk Theory:
Argues that risk is rarely consciously experienced, a learning theory.
Drivers operate using learned safety margins (e.g., time to collision).
o Risk/Threat Avoidance Theory:
Risk is aversive and avoided through experience.
Drivers learn what is risky based on past events.
The Safety Margin Model in traffic psychology explains how drivers maintain a buffer of safety to
avoid risk. Drivers continuously monitor safety margins, such as Time to Collision (TTC) and Time to
Line Crossing (TLC), to stay within a comfort zone. When these margins shrink, drivers feel discomfort
and adjust their behavior, like slowing down or increasing distance from other vehicles.
• Drivers aim to stay within safe thresholds to avoid discomfort.
• Behavior is often automatic, with drivers subconsciously adjusting to maintain these margins.
• This model focuses on avoiding risk rather than actively seeking it, differing from models like
Risk Homeostasis Theory.
Constant perception models = risk homeostasis theory, task difficulty homeostasis, risk allostasis
theory
Threshold perception models = zero risk theory, threat avoidance theory, the multiple comfort zone
model
Rasmussen's Model is a framework used to explain human performance in complex tasks like
driving, focusing on three levels of decision-making:
1. Skill-based Level:
o Actions are highly automated and require minimal conscious effort.
o Example: Steering or maintaining lane position while driving.
2. Rule-based Level:
o Actions are based on learned rules or procedures.
o Example: Following road signs or reacting to a red traffic light (IF X, THEN Y).
3. Knowledge-based Level:
o Involves deliberate problem-solving and decision-making in unfamiliar or complex
situations.
o Example: Figuring out a detour route when a familiar road is closed.
Driving Tasks and Hierarchical Models
• Driving tasks can be understood through three levels of control:
1. Control (Low) Level:
