Traffic Psychology and Sustained Mobility Summary
PSMIN10
Lecture 1 : Theories & Models
Traffic psychology is rather broad: behaviour in traffic
1. Social psychology =
Effectiveness campaigns; police enforcement; acceptance
2. Clinical psychology =
Phobias, depression, anxiety disorders
3. Neuropsychology =
Dementia, ageing, sustained mobility
4. Developmental psychology =
Young children behaviour
5. Experimental psychology (“neuroscience”) =
Information processing, automation, fatigue
Theories and models in traffic psychology =
○ Skill models
○ Attitude theories
○ Utility theories
○ Risk theories
○ Safety margins
○ Performance models
○ Attention and information processing models
Driving requires =
○ Sustained attention
○ Hazard identification (gevaarherkenning)
○ Motor coordination
Skill models =
A drivers perceptual and motor skills are what makes them safe
○ Reaction time
○ Vision
○ Level of driver training
*crashes happen what the task demands exceed the drivers skills
→ Critique; to simple, because =
○ Early attempts using visual attributes and reaction time found weak/no
relationships to accident
○ Psychomotor and perceptual variables less important than other properties (like
biographical(area where someone lives) and exposure factors)
, Attitude theories = Theory of planned behavior (TPB)
○ Attitude = what I say I think about something
○ Subjective norm = what I think others think
about something
○ Perceived control = how much control I think I
have over my behaviour
○ Intention = what I say I will do
○ Behavior = what I actually do
Why are attitude theories so popular?
- Easy of study (questionnaire study → large
sample size → self-reported behavior
- It’s common sense
→ Critique; Intention/attitude behavior gap =
- Very good at predicting the intention (predicts
90%) but only 10-20% of observed behavior
- So very weak link between attitude and
behavior
Rothengatter, de Bruin, and Roojiers experiment (1989) =
Series of experiments around Nl on speeding with…
1. Only enforcement
2. Only advertising
3. Advertising + enforcement
All 3 worked → speed reduced, BUT attitude and beliefs did not change (e.g.
speeding is cool/feels nice)
Rothengatter’s idea =
Suggests that drivers can change their behavior (how they drive) more easily than they
can change their attitudes (how they feel or think about driving). Strong habits can make
it harder for behavior to follow intentions, while weak habits make it easier.
→ intentions were only significantly related to behaviour when habit was weak
→ e.g. when you are used to driving very fast in Amsterdam and now you must drive 30
km/uur. Your intention might be to drive that, but because of your habit it is harder to
behave that way
Utility theories =
Suggest that people make decisions by trying to maximize their gains and minimize their
losses (assumes rationality). So they weigh the benefits and risks of their choice to get
the best outcome.
Examples →
○ Utility maximization = choosing the option with the highest benefit.
○ Subjective expected utility = picking what you think will give you the best
outcome based on your personal judgment.
, ○ Peltzman’s Driving Intensity theory =
Shows that in quick decisions (like in traffic) this approach is too slow. People
don’t have time to think through all the pros and cons of a decision.
Risk/motivational theories =
Takes motives into account
Risk Homeostasis Theory → RHT (Wilde) =
People maintain a preferred level of risk (target level of risk). When safety measures are
added, like seat belts or a better road, they take more risks to keep that level, sometimes
leading to more accidents.
ABS stands for Anti-lock Braking System =
This system prevents the wheels of a vehicle from locking up and skidding during
braking, especially in emergency situations or on slippery surfaces.
Risk Allostasis Theory (Fuller) (RAT) = (formally known as task-difficulty homeostasis
theory)
This theory suggests that people adjust their risk-taking based on external conditions.
Unlike a fixed risk threshold, individuals adapt their behavior to how difficult they
perceive the task.
→ e.g. bad weather less risk than good weather / ambulance more risk depending on
urgency
Somatic Marker Theory (Damasio, 1994) =
Explains how emotions guide decision-making. It suggests that our brain links specific
situations or choices to emotional "markers," which are physical body responses (like a
gut feeling). These markers help us quickly decide what feels right or wrong, even before
we consciously think about it.
Difference between Risk Homeostasis Theory (RHT) and Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT) =
RHT suggests a fixed risk threshold (vaste risico drempel), but the RAT suggests more
flexibility in riskadaption.
○ RAT was formerly known as RHT
Allostasis = more dynamic → better representation of changing motivational influences
on the driver
Homeostasis = posits a fixed target level of task difficulty or risk
Risk/Threat Avoidance Theory (Fuller) =
Risk is something people dislike and try to avoid. People learn what is risky based on
past experiences.
RISK calculation = probability of an outcome X the consequences of that outcome
, Zero-Risk Theory (Näätänen & Summala) =
○ People rarely feel risk.
○ When they do, it serves as a warning.
○ There is a point (risk threshold) where
risk triggers a response.
Constant perception =
1. Risk Homeostasis theory (RHT)
2. Task Difficulty Homeostasis
3. Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT)
Threshold perception =
1. Zero-risk theory
2. Threat avoidance theory
3. Multiple comfort zone model
The Safety Margin Model → SMM / Multiple Comfort Zone Model (Summala) =
○ People aim to feel comfortable while driving.
○ In traffic, this means drivers use strategies to create a safety buffer, like keeping
extra distance and staying alert.
○ These behaviors help reduce accident risks and allow for quick reactions to
unexpected situations.
Rasmussen = we perform on three
levels
1. Knowledge level
○ Bounded rationality &
“thinking”
2. Rule level
○ Pattern matching &
recognition
○ IF…THEN…
3. Skill level
○ Highly automated
○ Very little/no effort
Michon’s model is based on
Rasmussen’s human performance. Both
performance models
Main cause of accidents is speed, good
infrastructure helps reducing accidents
SDLP = an attention and information
processing model
PSMIN10
Lecture 1 : Theories & Models
Traffic psychology is rather broad: behaviour in traffic
1. Social psychology =
Effectiveness campaigns; police enforcement; acceptance
2. Clinical psychology =
Phobias, depression, anxiety disorders
3. Neuropsychology =
Dementia, ageing, sustained mobility
4. Developmental psychology =
Young children behaviour
5. Experimental psychology (“neuroscience”) =
Information processing, automation, fatigue
Theories and models in traffic psychology =
○ Skill models
○ Attitude theories
○ Utility theories
○ Risk theories
○ Safety margins
○ Performance models
○ Attention and information processing models
Driving requires =
○ Sustained attention
○ Hazard identification (gevaarherkenning)
○ Motor coordination
Skill models =
A drivers perceptual and motor skills are what makes them safe
○ Reaction time
○ Vision
○ Level of driver training
*crashes happen what the task demands exceed the drivers skills
→ Critique; to simple, because =
○ Early attempts using visual attributes and reaction time found weak/no
relationships to accident
○ Psychomotor and perceptual variables less important than other properties (like
biographical(area where someone lives) and exposure factors)
, Attitude theories = Theory of planned behavior (TPB)
○ Attitude = what I say I think about something
○ Subjective norm = what I think others think
about something
○ Perceived control = how much control I think I
have over my behaviour
○ Intention = what I say I will do
○ Behavior = what I actually do
Why are attitude theories so popular?
- Easy of study (questionnaire study → large
sample size → self-reported behavior
- It’s common sense
→ Critique; Intention/attitude behavior gap =
- Very good at predicting the intention (predicts
90%) but only 10-20% of observed behavior
- So very weak link between attitude and
behavior
Rothengatter, de Bruin, and Roojiers experiment (1989) =
Series of experiments around Nl on speeding with…
1. Only enforcement
2. Only advertising
3. Advertising + enforcement
All 3 worked → speed reduced, BUT attitude and beliefs did not change (e.g.
speeding is cool/feels nice)
Rothengatter’s idea =
Suggests that drivers can change their behavior (how they drive) more easily than they
can change their attitudes (how they feel or think about driving). Strong habits can make
it harder for behavior to follow intentions, while weak habits make it easier.
→ intentions were only significantly related to behaviour when habit was weak
→ e.g. when you are used to driving very fast in Amsterdam and now you must drive 30
km/uur. Your intention might be to drive that, but because of your habit it is harder to
behave that way
Utility theories =
Suggest that people make decisions by trying to maximize their gains and minimize their
losses (assumes rationality). So they weigh the benefits and risks of their choice to get
the best outcome.
Examples →
○ Utility maximization = choosing the option with the highest benefit.
○ Subjective expected utility = picking what you think will give you the best
outcome based on your personal judgment.
, ○ Peltzman’s Driving Intensity theory =
Shows that in quick decisions (like in traffic) this approach is too slow. People
don’t have time to think through all the pros and cons of a decision.
Risk/motivational theories =
Takes motives into account
Risk Homeostasis Theory → RHT (Wilde) =
People maintain a preferred level of risk (target level of risk). When safety measures are
added, like seat belts or a better road, they take more risks to keep that level, sometimes
leading to more accidents.
ABS stands for Anti-lock Braking System =
This system prevents the wheels of a vehicle from locking up and skidding during
braking, especially in emergency situations or on slippery surfaces.
Risk Allostasis Theory (Fuller) (RAT) = (formally known as task-difficulty homeostasis
theory)
This theory suggests that people adjust their risk-taking based on external conditions.
Unlike a fixed risk threshold, individuals adapt their behavior to how difficult they
perceive the task.
→ e.g. bad weather less risk than good weather / ambulance more risk depending on
urgency
Somatic Marker Theory (Damasio, 1994) =
Explains how emotions guide decision-making. It suggests that our brain links specific
situations or choices to emotional "markers," which are physical body responses (like a
gut feeling). These markers help us quickly decide what feels right or wrong, even before
we consciously think about it.
Difference between Risk Homeostasis Theory (RHT) and Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT) =
RHT suggests a fixed risk threshold (vaste risico drempel), but the RAT suggests more
flexibility in riskadaption.
○ RAT was formerly known as RHT
Allostasis = more dynamic → better representation of changing motivational influences
on the driver
Homeostasis = posits a fixed target level of task difficulty or risk
Risk/Threat Avoidance Theory (Fuller) =
Risk is something people dislike and try to avoid. People learn what is risky based on
past experiences.
RISK calculation = probability of an outcome X the consequences of that outcome
, Zero-Risk Theory (Näätänen & Summala) =
○ People rarely feel risk.
○ When they do, it serves as a warning.
○ There is a point (risk threshold) where
risk triggers a response.
Constant perception =
1. Risk Homeostasis theory (RHT)
2. Task Difficulty Homeostasis
3. Risk Allostasis Theory (RAT)
Threshold perception =
1. Zero-risk theory
2. Threat avoidance theory
3. Multiple comfort zone model
The Safety Margin Model → SMM / Multiple Comfort Zone Model (Summala) =
○ People aim to feel comfortable while driving.
○ In traffic, this means drivers use strategies to create a safety buffer, like keeping
extra distance and staying alert.
○ These behaviors help reduce accident risks and allow for quick reactions to
unexpected situations.
Rasmussen = we perform on three
levels
1. Knowledge level
○ Bounded rationality &
“thinking”
2. Rule level
○ Pattern matching &
recognition
○ IF…THEN…
3. Skill level
○ Highly automated
○ Very little/no effort
Michon’s model is based on
Rasmussen’s human performance. Both
performance models
Main cause of accidents is speed, good
infrastructure helps reducing accidents
SDLP = an attention and information
processing model
