Samenvatting Climate and
history
Inhoudstafel
Inhoud
Les 1: Klimaat en geschiedenis algemeen – introductie.........................6
Uit de syllabus..................................................................................................... 6
Enkele belangrijke denkers over geschiedenis en klimaat (kort).........................7
Wat is ‘Klimaatverandering’?............................................................................... 7
Bewijs voor klimaat in het verleden - bronnen....................................................8
De verandering van denken over klimaatverandering........................................9
Neerslag: geografisch diverser dan temperatuur..............................................13
Paleoklimatologie conclusies............................................................................ 14
Klimatologische trends en politieke gebeurtenissen.........................................14
Casus / voorbeeld 1: uitbarsting Okmok 43 v.C..............................................15
Casus / voorbeeld 2: complexe samenleving Angkor (Cambodja)..................15
Klimaatverandering en landbouw......................................................................17
Klimaat en draagkracht (carrying capacity) – bevolkingsaantallen...................18
Theorieën over bevolkingsaantallen en klimaat.............................................19
Les 2: the maximalist view................................................................20
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 20
Malcolm H. Wiener, The Collapse of Civilizations (2018)...................................21
Buntgen (2011) et al. - 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human
Susceptibility..................................................................................................... 25
Buntgen et al. - Prominent role of vulcanism in Common Era climate variability
an human history (2020)................................................................................... 26
David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner - Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-
industrial Europe............................................................................................... 28
Les 3: Introductie in de Paleoklimatologie..........................................31
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 31
4 grote klimaathistorici van de 20e eeuw..........................................................31
Klimaatbewijs voor de Common era..................................................................31
Proxy data (a.d.h.v. Erdkamp ‘A historian’s introduction to paleoclimatology’).33
Ijskernen......................................................................................................... 34
Gletsjers......................................................................................................... 35
1
, Speleotherms (stalactieten, stalagmieten, druipsteen)..................................36
Meersedimenten............................................................................................ 37
Pollen............................................................................................................. 38
Dendroklimatologie........................................................................................ 38
Evidence from the archives of societies: personal documentary sources
(Christian Pfister & S. White)............................................................................. 39
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 39
Inhoud............................................................................................................ 40
Evidence from the archives of societies: institutional sources (C. Pfister).........41
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 41
Inhoud............................................................................................................ 41
Les 4: Paleoklimatologie en klimaatgeschiedenis: voorbij de zekerheden
........................................................................................................43
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 43
No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial
common era (Neukom et al).............................................................................. 43
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 43
Algemeen (+ uitleg van abstract)..................................................................44
Wat is de centrale vraagstelling van dit artikel? Waar reageert dit artikel op?
....................................................................................................................... 44
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions (Ulf
Buntgen et al - 2021)........................................................................................ 45
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 45
Algemeen en bevindingen.............................................................................. 46
Setting the three-ring record straight (J. Ludescher et al).................................47
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 47
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 47
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 48
Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature
reconstructions of the common era (Anchukaitis & Smerdon)..........................49
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 49
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 49
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 49
Les 5: klimaat, landbouw en statistiek...............................................51
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 51
Algemeen (over economie en statistiek)...........................................................52
Klimaat en landbouw - Hoe het weer de landbouwopbrengst en prijzen
beïnvloedt......................................................................................................... 53
2
, Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields
(Ljungqvist, F.C. et al. – 2022a)......................................................................53
The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
(Ljungqvist, F.C. et al. – 2022b)......................................................................58
Klimaat, landbouw en oorlogen – de rol van klimaatschokken in conflicten......61
A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on
Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE –
(Carleton et al. - 2021)................................................................................... 61
Weather shocks, sweet potatoes and peasant revolts in historical China (Jia, R
et al. - 2013).................................................................................................. 64
Naar een holistische benadering – integratie van klimaat, economie en
samenleving...................................................................................................... 67
Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Stability: Reassessing the Impact of
Weather on Tuscany (16th-17th century) (Oddo & Erdkamp - 2024)................67
Les 6: “Winter is coming”: the Little Ice Age in Europa.......................71
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 71
The earth transformed. An untold history - The Little Ice Age (P. Frankopan -
2023)................................................................................................................. 72
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 72
Algemeen + inhoud........................................................................................ 73
Climatic, weather and socio- economic conditions corresponding with the mid-
17th century eruption cluster (M. Stoffel et al. – 2021).....................................75
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 75
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 76
Wat zijn de voornaamste paleoklimatologische conclusies van deze studie?
Hoe linken ze dit tot het historisch debat?.....................................................76
Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th-
century volcanic eruptions in northern Fennoscandia (Heli Huhtamaa, Markus
Stoffel and Christophe Corona).........................................................................77
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 77
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 78
Welk probleem kaarten de auteurs aan en hoe geven ze hier een antwoord
op? + Bevindingen......................................................................................... 79
Les 7: Little Ice Age II - imperial China...............................................81
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 81
Algemeen.......................................................................................................... 81
Volcanic Climate Impacts can act as Ultimate Proximate Causes of Chinese
Dynastic Collapse (Chaochoa Gao et al., 2021).................................................82
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 82
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 82
3
, The Little Ice Age and the fall of the Ming dynasty: a review (Fan Ka-Wai, 2023)
.......................................................................................................................... 83
Inhoud en bevindingen................................................................................... 84
The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the
Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century (Jianfu Han & Yuda Yang, 2021).......85
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 85
Inhoud en bevindingen................................................................................... 86
The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627-1644) in China
and its impact on famine (Sying Chen et al., 2024)..........................................87
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 87
Les 8: Climate & the fall of the Roman Empire. Part I..........................89
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 89
The fate of Rome. Climate, disease, and the end of an empire – Kyle Harper...90
Welke perioden onderscheid Harper? En wat zegt hij over klimaat in deze
perioden? En wat zegt hij over de relatie tussen klimaat en de maatschappij
in deze perioden?........................................................................................... 90
Les 9: Climate & the fall of the Roman Empire. Part II – kritiek op Kyle
Harper..............................................................................................94
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 94
Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire: A response to Kyle Harper's
The Fate of Rome (1): Climate (J. Haldon et al., 2018)......................................94
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 94
Bespreking en inhoud..................................................................................... 94
War, Food, Climate Change, and the Decline of the Roman Empire – Erdkamp
2019.................................................................................................................. 96
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 96
Algemeen en bevindingen.............................................................................. 97
‘Climate change’, in: A.L. Brock and R. Post (eds.), Routledge Handbook of
Environmental Approaches to the Ancient Mediterranean World – Erdkamp...101
Inleiding....................................................................................................... 101
4
history
Inhoudstafel
Inhoud
Les 1: Klimaat en geschiedenis algemeen – introductie.........................6
Uit de syllabus..................................................................................................... 6
Enkele belangrijke denkers over geschiedenis en klimaat (kort).........................7
Wat is ‘Klimaatverandering’?............................................................................... 7
Bewijs voor klimaat in het verleden - bronnen....................................................8
De verandering van denken over klimaatverandering........................................9
Neerslag: geografisch diverser dan temperatuur..............................................13
Paleoklimatologie conclusies............................................................................ 14
Klimatologische trends en politieke gebeurtenissen.........................................14
Casus / voorbeeld 1: uitbarsting Okmok 43 v.C..............................................15
Casus / voorbeeld 2: complexe samenleving Angkor (Cambodja)..................15
Klimaatverandering en landbouw......................................................................17
Klimaat en draagkracht (carrying capacity) – bevolkingsaantallen...................18
Theorieën over bevolkingsaantallen en klimaat.............................................19
Les 2: the maximalist view................................................................20
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 20
Malcolm H. Wiener, The Collapse of Civilizations (2018)...................................21
Buntgen (2011) et al. - 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human
Susceptibility..................................................................................................... 25
Buntgen et al. - Prominent role of vulcanism in Common Era climate variability
an human history (2020)................................................................................... 26
David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner - Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-
industrial Europe............................................................................................... 28
Les 3: Introductie in de Paleoklimatologie..........................................31
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 31
4 grote klimaathistorici van de 20e eeuw..........................................................31
Klimaatbewijs voor de Common era..................................................................31
Proxy data (a.d.h.v. Erdkamp ‘A historian’s introduction to paleoclimatology’).33
Ijskernen......................................................................................................... 34
Gletsjers......................................................................................................... 35
1
, Speleotherms (stalactieten, stalagmieten, druipsteen)..................................36
Meersedimenten............................................................................................ 37
Pollen............................................................................................................. 38
Dendroklimatologie........................................................................................ 38
Evidence from the archives of societies: personal documentary sources
(Christian Pfister & S. White)............................................................................. 39
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 39
Inhoud............................................................................................................ 40
Evidence from the archives of societies: institutional sources (C. Pfister).........41
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 41
Inhoud............................................................................................................ 41
Les 4: Paleoklimatologie en klimaatgeschiedenis: voorbij de zekerheden
........................................................................................................43
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 43
No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial
common era (Neukom et al).............................................................................. 43
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 43
Algemeen (+ uitleg van abstract)..................................................................44
Wat is de centrale vraagstelling van dit artikel? Waar reageert dit artikel op?
....................................................................................................................... 44
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions (Ulf
Buntgen et al - 2021)........................................................................................ 45
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 45
Algemeen en bevindingen.............................................................................. 46
Setting the three-ring record straight (J. Ludescher et al).................................47
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 47
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 47
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 48
Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature
reconstructions of the common era (Anchukaitis & Smerdon)..........................49
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 49
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 49
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 49
Les 5: klimaat, landbouw en statistiek...............................................51
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 51
Algemeen (over economie en statistiek)...........................................................52
Klimaat en landbouw - Hoe het weer de landbouwopbrengst en prijzen
beïnvloedt......................................................................................................... 53
2
, Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields
(Ljungqvist, F.C. et al. – 2022a)......................................................................53
The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
(Ljungqvist, F.C. et al. – 2022b)......................................................................58
Klimaat, landbouw en oorlogen – de rol van klimaatschokken in conflicten......61
A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on
Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE –
(Carleton et al. - 2021)................................................................................... 61
Weather shocks, sweet potatoes and peasant revolts in historical China (Jia, R
et al. - 2013).................................................................................................. 64
Naar een holistische benadering – integratie van klimaat, economie en
samenleving...................................................................................................... 67
Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Stability: Reassessing the Impact of
Weather on Tuscany (16th-17th century) (Oddo & Erdkamp - 2024)................67
Les 6: “Winter is coming”: the Little Ice Age in Europa.......................71
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 71
The earth transformed. An untold history - The Little Ice Age (P. Frankopan -
2023)................................................................................................................. 72
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 72
Algemeen + inhoud........................................................................................ 73
Climatic, weather and socio- economic conditions corresponding with the mid-
17th century eruption cluster (M. Stoffel et al. – 2021).....................................75
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 75
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 76
Wat zijn de voornaamste paleoklimatologische conclusies van deze studie?
Hoe linken ze dit tot het historisch debat?.....................................................76
Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th-
century volcanic eruptions in northern Fennoscandia (Heli Huhtamaa, Markus
Stoffel and Christophe Corona).........................................................................77
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 77
Algemeen....................................................................................................... 78
Welk probleem kaarten de auteurs aan en hoe geven ze hier een antwoord
op? + Bevindingen......................................................................................... 79
Les 7: Little Ice Age II - imperial China...............................................81
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 81
Algemeen.......................................................................................................... 81
Volcanic Climate Impacts can act as Ultimate Proximate Causes of Chinese
Dynastic Collapse (Chaochoa Gao et al., 2021).................................................82
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 82
Bevindingen................................................................................................... 82
3
, The Little Ice Age and the fall of the Ming dynasty: a review (Fan Ka-Wai, 2023)
.......................................................................................................................... 83
Inhoud en bevindingen................................................................................... 84
The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the
Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century (Jianfu Han & Yuda Yang, 2021).......85
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 85
Inhoud en bevindingen................................................................................... 86
The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627-1644) in China
and its impact on famine (Sying Chen et al., 2024)..........................................87
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 87
Les 8: Climate & the fall of the Roman Empire. Part I..........................89
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 89
The fate of Rome. Climate, disease, and the end of an empire – Kyle Harper...90
Welke perioden onderscheid Harper? En wat zegt hij over klimaat in deze
perioden? En wat zegt hij over de relatie tussen klimaat en de maatschappij
in deze perioden?........................................................................................... 90
Les 9: Climate & the fall of the Roman Empire. Part II – kritiek op Kyle
Harper..............................................................................................94
Uit de syllabus................................................................................................... 94
Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire: A response to Kyle Harper's
The Fate of Rome (1): Climate (J. Haldon et al., 2018)......................................94
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 94
Bespreking en inhoud..................................................................................... 94
War, Food, Climate Change, and the Decline of the Roman Empire – Erdkamp
2019.................................................................................................................. 96
Abstract.......................................................................................................... 96
Algemeen en bevindingen.............................................................................. 97
‘Climate change’, in: A.L. Brock and R. Post (eds.), Routledge Handbook of
Environmental Approaches to the Ancient Mediterranean World – Erdkamp...101
Inleiding....................................................................................................... 101
4
