Relative age effect in the national softball team
u19
Anonymous | 9999999 | Talent and Talent Identification
The relative age effect (RAE) is a widespread phenomenon in sports. This means children born early
in the year are over-represented on elite junior teams due to their physical development compared to
younger children (Baker, Cobley and Schorer, 2012). The mistake is made during the selection of the
children. Older children can be stronger, taller and more developed than younger children. Scouts
compare the children with each other, without keeping in mind the younger child can be better
developed when it reaches the same relative age. In this way there will be more children born in the
first quarter of the year in elite junior teams.
The RAE sound like a phenomenon that mostly happens in well represented sports as football
(1.217.545 members (KNVB, 2017)), but is this RAE also existing in sports? The sport I want to look at
is softball, this is a very small sport in the Netherlands with an average of 6.878 members
(KNBSB,2013). Will there be a RAE effect in the elite junior team? I will look at the RAE over the years
1991 up to and including 2001. With this marge we can eventually see how many children are able to
get in the national team squat. In the years 1991-2001 there were 121 children selected for the elite
junior team (preselection included). If we want to look at the RAE we need to know the born rate
percentages over those years. According to the central bureau of statistics (2018) approximately 25%
of the total birthrate is born in every quarter of the year. This means if the RAE does not exist in
softball, the junior team should be equally divided per quarter of the year.
Du tch J u n i o r So ft b al l te am As you can see in figure one, there still is a slight form of
U16-19 RAE. The main thing we see is the fewer selected
40
children in the quarter October-December. These
20
children are 7% less likely to get selected. To equal the
0 other quarters there need to be 14 children selected in
this quarter, which seems like a small amount. The
explanation for this discrepancy is the physical
development in age group. The quarter October-
December had less time to develop than other quarters.
Figure 1 In softball the development of coordination is the most
important physical development. So children born in
the last quarter of the year are not developed in this skill as the other children. This could be an
explanation for the fewer children selected in quarter October-December.
The cut-off date in softball is January but the season starts in April. The fun thing you can see in figure
one is the representation of the quarter April-June. There are slightly more children selected in this
quarter of the years than in any other. It could be a coincidence, but there could also be a advantage
for this group. The only explanation for this could be the start of the season, this starts in April.
I was wondering if RAE showed in the national team as
Du tch N ati on al S oft - well, but as you can see in figure two there is no effect
b al l te am p as t 5 ye ars showing. The crazy thing is that this figure suggests “the
10 later your born, the more change you have in making the
national team”. An explanation can be the tactics and fast
0 thinking. The children born in October-December always
were in a disadvantage physically seen, this can be the
reason why they developed the other skills more than
others. An other explanation could be the open selection
for the national team. If you never have been in the junior
team you still
have a big change in making the Figure 2 national
team.
At the end it is debatable how much influence RAE has on softball in the Netherlands. It is hard to say
since there are little players in this sport. There is one thing which stands out most, the last quarter off
u19
Anonymous | 9999999 | Talent and Talent Identification
The relative age effect (RAE) is a widespread phenomenon in sports. This means children born early
in the year are over-represented on elite junior teams due to their physical development compared to
younger children (Baker, Cobley and Schorer, 2012). The mistake is made during the selection of the
children. Older children can be stronger, taller and more developed than younger children. Scouts
compare the children with each other, without keeping in mind the younger child can be better
developed when it reaches the same relative age. In this way there will be more children born in the
first quarter of the year in elite junior teams.
The RAE sound like a phenomenon that mostly happens in well represented sports as football
(1.217.545 members (KNVB, 2017)), but is this RAE also existing in sports? The sport I want to look at
is softball, this is a very small sport in the Netherlands with an average of 6.878 members
(KNBSB,2013). Will there be a RAE effect in the elite junior team? I will look at the RAE over the years
1991 up to and including 2001. With this marge we can eventually see how many children are able to
get in the national team squat. In the years 1991-2001 there were 121 children selected for the elite
junior team (preselection included). If we want to look at the RAE we need to know the born rate
percentages over those years. According to the central bureau of statistics (2018) approximately 25%
of the total birthrate is born in every quarter of the year. This means if the RAE does not exist in
softball, the junior team should be equally divided per quarter of the year.
Du tch J u n i o r So ft b al l te am As you can see in figure one, there still is a slight form of
U16-19 RAE. The main thing we see is the fewer selected
40
children in the quarter October-December. These
20
children are 7% less likely to get selected. To equal the
0 other quarters there need to be 14 children selected in
this quarter, which seems like a small amount. The
explanation for this discrepancy is the physical
development in age group. The quarter October-
December had less time to develop than other quarters.
Figure 1 In softball the development of coordination is the most
important physical development. So children born in
the last quarter of the year are not developed in this skill as the other children. This could be an
explanation for the fewer children selected in quarter October-December.
The cut-off date in softball is January but the season starts in April. The fun thing you can see in figure
one is the representation of the quarter April-June. There are slightly more children selected in this
quarter of the years than in any other. It could be a coincidence, but there could also be a advantage
for this group. The only explanation for this could be the start of the season, this starts in April.
I was wondering if RAE showed in the national team as
Du tch N ati on al S oft - well, but as you can see in figure two there is no effect
b al l te am p as t 5 ye ars showing. The crazy thing is that this figure suggests “the
10 later your born, the more change you have in making the
national team”. An explanation can be the tactics and fast
0 thinking. The children born in October-December always
were in a disadvantage physically seen, this can be the
reason why they developed the other skills more than
others. An other explanation could be the open selection
for the national team. If you never have been in the junior
team you still
have a big change in making the Figure 2 national
team.
At the end it is debatable how much influence RAE has on softball in the Netherlands. It is hard to say
since there are little players in this sport. There is one thing which stands out most, the last quarter off
