POPULATION, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIETY
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE POLICIES
INTRODUCTION
- Human society ≠ human population
o
- Focus: demographic perspective
o Goal is to see how human populations are affecting and have been affected by climate
change = demographic dimension
o Depends on how these populations organise themselves and are structured across space
and time = sociological dimension
o This course takes the demographic perspective as the major focus
- Population projections
o Population projections have been a key contribution that social scientists have been
making in the analysis of climate effects
- Demography?
o = the science that analyses
Population size, composition and (geographical) distribution
Causes and consequences of changes in
Natality (= number of births) and fertility (related to marriage & divorce:
family demography)
Mortality (death rate)
Migratio
o Population = a collection of humans observed
In some time frame
Transversally = cross-section
Longitudinally = over a period of time
In space
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE?
- Climate = long-term patterns of weather, i.e.,
o Temperature
o Precipitation (rain, snow, hail, ...)
o Wind, storms, ...
- Change = contemporary shifts in
o Averages
Increasing average temperature (global warming)
Rising degree of acidity of oceans
Increasing sea-level, ...
o Increased variation
Extreme weather becoming more frequent: storms, droughts, heatwaves, ..
1
,CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 1. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO2 resulting from unsustainable
human production and consumption patterns (Greenhouse Effect)
- 2. Decreasing albedo = reflectivity of the Earth due to changes in land use (cf. intensification and
extensification)
GHG?
- What are GHG?
- Sources of GHG?
- Current global warming is unseen
- Rising global atmospheric concentrations of CO2
- Correlating observations
THE ANTROPOCENE
- Increase in emissions and the atmospheric concentration of long-lived GHG, “is due primarily to
human activities associated with fossil-fuel use and agriculture [...]. The scale of these emissions
has been an important component in the designation of a new geological era in which human
activity is a primary driver – the Anthropocene” (Jorgenson et al. 2019: 2).
- Anthropogenic drivers
o = human actions that cause climate change and the societal factors that shape and
condition those actions
- “The size and growth of the human population, the scale and structure of economic production and
consumption, and the types of technologies societies develop and use are broadly acknowledged to
be key forces influencing human impacts on the environment, including the global climate”
- Rockström et al. (2009): A Safe Operating Space for Humanity: Climate change linked to other
Earth system processes (e.g. loss of biodiversity, changing land use)
- Planetary Boundaries = those 9 biophysical systems and processes regulating the functioning of
life support systems on Earth and ultimately the stability and resilience of the Earth system
- Crossing ‘tipping points’ in Earth’s climate system leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible
changes and severe damage to human society
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
- Melting and contracting Arctic sea ice
- Rising sea levels
- Increased flooding and destruction of coastal and riverside areas
- Greater and more disastrous incidents of extreme events (hurricanes, wildfires, deforestation,
droughts, heatwaves, heat and water stress, fluvial and pluvial water surplus)
- Destruction of resources that are considered basic necessities for human livelihoods and wellbeing
CLIMATE INJUSTICES
ECO -SOCIAL RISICS – RISICOFACTOREN
-
CLIMATE CHANGE INJUSTICES?
2
, -
MIND THE GAP: AN EXAMPLE
-
- Responsibility: rich, richer, CO2-emitter?
o
- Linking living standard and CO2 emissions
o
CLIMATE CHANGE & CLIMATE POLICIES
CLIMATE CHANGE & CLIMATE POLICIES
- Human drivers of climate change
o How do human populations and the way they organise their lives affect climate? (mainly
production and consumption patterns)
3
, - Human responses
o Mitigation
E.g. various policies and economics addressing technological and behavioural
change
E.g. political mobilization
o Adaptation
E.g. adapting communities and countries (incl. infrastructure and human capacity)
to climate change challenges
VITAL STRATEGIES ADRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
- Climate mitigation
o = actions reducing climate change by reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Reducing sources (less fossil fuel burning; eating less meat; slowing down the
melting of permafrost and Greenland ice sheets etc.)
Enhancing carbon “sinks” (GHG accumulation in the oceans, forests and soil) (and
avoiding that carbon sinks become carbon sources, e.g. subarctic boreal forests)
- Climate adaptation
o = actions adjusting to impacts of climate change to moderate harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities
APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
- Technological innovation
o Geoengineering to reduce GHG concentrations, GHG absorption capacity or increase solar
radiation
- Behavioural change
o Changes in human production, consumption and management behaviour
CAN TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION ALONE SOLVE THE ISSUE?
- Technological innovation types
o 1) Phasing out outdated technologies (fossil-fuel-powered cars)
o 2) Breakthrough technologies (e.g. carbon capture & storage, battery recycling)
o 3) Frontier technologies (e.g. nuclear fusion, extraterrestrial solar panels)
- Limitations
o Capacity: tech alone will not suffice for massive decarbonisation in short term
o Time constraints: no time for exploring emerging technologies
o Financial: techno innovation requires huge investments (profit-risk trade-offs/”high risk,
uncertain rewards”)
o Politics: interests & power impacting innovation time, tech scale, commercialisation,
diffusion etc.
o Costs: tech comes with challenges and costs (waste management, construction costs,
safety costs, equity, etc.)
o Accessibility & Affordability: innovations do not benefit everyone equally (Northern
hemisphere & the rich)
o Supply-side focus: little attention to demand side of energy (including possible rebound
effects)
CAN BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE ALONE SOLVE THE ISSUE?
- Instruments:
o Regulations and mandates, market-based instruments as well as information and
awareness (nudging) as main strategies for changing behaviour
- Challenges from sociological & political perspectives:
o Mass oil consumption patterns linked to broader cultural politics of what constitutes a ‘good
life’; not fundamentally technical and economic but cultural, social, and politica
o Regulation = key lever to change behaviours, but achieving broader behavioural
disruptions is a question of capacity, capability & legitimation
4
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE POLICIES
INTRODUCTION
- Human society ≠ human population
o
- Focus: demographic perspective
o Goal is to see how human populations are affecting and have been affected by climate
change = demographic dimension
o Depends on how these populations organise themselves and are structured across space
and time = sociological dimension
o This course takes the demographic perspective as the major focus
- Population projections
o Population projections have been a key contribution that social scientists have been
making in the analysis of climate effects
- Demography?
o = the science that analyses
Population size, composition and (geographical) distribution
Causes and consequences of changes in
Natality (= number of births) and fertility (related to marriage & divorce:
family demography)
Mortality (death rate)
Migratio
o Population = a collection of humans observed
In some time frame
Transversally = cross-section
Longitudinally = over a period of time
In space
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE?
- Climate = long-term patterns of weather, i.e.,
o Temperature
o Precipitation (rain, snow, hail, ...)
o Wind, storms, ...
- Change = contemporary shifts in
o Averages
Increasing average temperature (global warming)
Rising degree of acidity of oceans
Increasing sea-level, ...
o Increased variation
Extreme weather becoming more frequent: storms, droughts, heatwaves, ..
1
,CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 1. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO2 resulting from unsustainable
human production and consumption patterns (Greenhouse Effect)
- 2. Decreasing albedo = reflectivity of the Earth due to changes in land use (cf. intensification and
extensification)
GHG?
- What are GHG?
- Sources of GHG?
- Current global warming is unseen
- Rising global atmospheric concentrations of CO2
- Correlating observations
THE ANTROPOCENE
- Increase in emissions and the atmospheric concentration of long-lived GHG, “is due primarily to
human activities associated with fossil-fuel use and agriculture [...]. The scale of these emissions
has been an important component in the designation of a new geological era in which human
activity is a primary driver – the Anthropocene” (Jorgenson et al. 2019: 2).
- Anthropogenic drivers
o = human actions that cause climate change and the societal factors that shape and
condition those actions
- “The size and growth of the human population, the scale and structure of economic production and
consumption, and the types of technologies societies develop and use are broadly acknowledged to
be key forces influencing human impacts on the environment, including the global climate”
- Rockström et al. (2009): A Safe Operating Space for Humanity: Climate change linked to other
Earth system processes (e.g. loss of biodiversity, changing land use)
- Planetary Boundaries = those 9 biophysical systems and processes regulating the functioning of
life support systems on Earth and ultimately the stability and resilience of the Earth system
- Crossing ‘tipping points’ in Earth’s climate system leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible
changes and severe damage to human society
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
- Melting and contracting Arctic sea ice
- Rising sea levels
- Increased flooding and destruction of coastal and riverside areas
- Greater and more disastrous incidents of extreme events (hurricanes, wildfires, deforestation,
droughts, heatwaves, heat and water stress, fluvial and pluvial water surplus)
- Destruction of resources that are considered basic necessities for human livelihoods and wellbeing
CLIMATE INJUSTICES
ECO -SOCIAL RISICS – RISICOFACTOREN
-
CLIMATE CHANGE INJUSTICES?
2
, -
MIND THE GAP: AN EXAMPLE
-
- Responsibility: rich, richer, CO2-emitter?
o
- Linking living standard and CO2 emissions
o
CLIMATE CHANGE & CLIMATE POLICIES
CLIMATE CHANGE & CLIMATE POLICIES
- Human drivers of climate change
o How do human populations and the way they organise their lives affect climate? (mainly
production and consumption patterns)
3
, - Human responses
o Mitigation
E.g. various policies and economics addressing technological and behavioural
change
E.g. political mobilization
o Adaptation
E.g. adapting communities and countries (incl. infrastructure and human capacity)
to climate change challenges
VITAL STRATEGIES ADRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
- Climate mitigation
o = actions reducing climate change by reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Reducing sources (less fossil fuel burning; eating less meat; slowing down the
melting of permafrost and Greenland ice sheets etc.)
Enhancing carbon “sinks” (GHG accumulation in the oceans, forests and soil) (and
avoiding that carbon sinks become carbon sources, e.g. subarctic boreal forests)
- Climate adaptation
o = actions adjusting to impacts of climate change to moderate harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities
APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
- Technological innovation
o Geoengineering to reduce GHG concentrations, GHG absorption capacity or increase solar
radiation
- Behavioural change
o Changes in human production, consumption and management behaviour
CAN TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION ALONE SOLVE THE ISSUE?
- Technological innovation types
o 1) Phasing out outdated technologies (fossil-fuel-powered cars)
o 2) Breakthrough technologies (e.g. carbon capture & storage, battery recycling)
o 3) Frontier technologies (e.g. nuclear fusion, extraterrestrial solar panels)
- Limitations
o Capacity: tech alone will not suffice for massive decarbonisation in short term
o Time constraints: no time for exploring emerging technologies
o Financial: techno innovation requires huge investments (profit-risk trade-offs/”high risk,
uncertain rewards”)
o Politics: interests & power impacting innovation time, tech scale, commercialisation,
diffusion etc.
o Costs: tech comes with challenges and costs (waste management, construction costs,
safety costs, equity, etc.)
o Accessibility & Affordability: innovations do not benefit everyone equally (Northern
hemisphere & the rich)
o Supply-side focus: little attention to demand side of energy (including possible rebound
effects)
CAN BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE ALONE SOLVE THE ISSUE?
- Instruments:
o Regulations and mandates, market-based instruments as well as information and
awareness (nudging) as main strategies for changing behaviour
- Challenges from sociological & political perspectives:
o Mass oil consumption patterns linked to broader cultural politics of what constitutes a ‘good
life’; not fundamentally technical and economic but cultural, social, and politica
o Regulation = key lever to change behaviours, but achieving broader behavioural
disruptions is a question of capacity, capability & legitimation
4
