Brain and Cognition Lecture 10 Decision Making
27.11.18
Reasoning and Decision Making- chapter 10 and 19
The Multiple Forms of Thinking:
■ Historically, the first people to investigate the “laws of thought” were philosophers
and mathematicians e.g. Aristotle. They proposed that human thought functions like
the laws of logic
Reasoning research:
Do humans follow the laws of logic?
– Inductive reasoning
Aim to reach probable conclusions are derived from the available
statements
– Deductive reasoning
The conclusions necessarily follow from the premises
If we understand laws of thinking we can make inferences of what people think and do.
Decision making research:
– Do humans think using the laws of probability?
■ Problem solving research
– Unlike research into reasoning and decision making, participants come up
with the solutions themselves
■ Creativity research
– How are novel products and ideas created?
■ Research on analogy-making
– To what extent can knowledge acquired in a domain be transferred in a
different domain?
These approaches differ in
– The tasks studied
– The theoretical assumptions made
However, they all study the same question: thinking
■ The key conclusions are the same:
– Long-term memory knowledge is essential to thinking
– Limits in attention and short-term memory make even simple problems hard
to solve
– Whether attention is directed to the key aspects of the problem predicts
whether people will find a good solution
Are Humans Rational?
^ Key scientific question- studied in psychology and economics.
- Rationality- weak version- do we make decisions that allow us to reach our goals?
- Rationality- strong version- do we make the best decisions possible- do we optimise?
, - Research into reasoning and decision making sheds important light on the question
of rationality
REASONING:
Selection task WASON 1969
Most people opt for the E and 4 cards
but the card E is correct. If there is no
even number on the back of the E
card, the cards do not follow the rule,
the 4 card doesn’t bring in any new
information
What we need to do is to try to falsify
the rule
– This can be done by
turning over the card
“7”
– Only few people choose it
Wason’s task illustrates the confirmation bias
– A human tendency to confirm views held rather than falsify them
– This is a very common bias in human thinking
Concrete Version of WASON’s Task:
You are a police officer enforcing the rule that only persons over 18 can drink beer in
a pub
Rule: If someone in the bar is drinking beer then that person must be over 18
■ There are 4 persons in the bar
– The first is drinking beer, the second is drinking coke; the third is obviously
over 18, while the last seems under 18
– Whom do you need to check?
• The person drinking beer and the person looking under 18!
■ Around three out of four participants get the answer correct in the pub problem
– Griggs and Cox (1982)
– About one person in ten gets it right in the abstract version!
– Yet, the two problems are essentially the same
27.11.18
Reasoning and Decision Making- chapter 10 and 19
The Multiple Forms of Thinking:
■ Historically, the first people to investigate the “laws of thought” were philosophers
and mathematicians e.g. Aristotle. They proposed that human thought functions like
the laws of logic
Reasoning research:
Do humans follow the laws of logic?
– Inductive reasoning
Aim to reach probable conclusions are derived from the available
statements
– Deductive reasoning
The conclusions necessarily follow from the premises
If we understand laws of thinking we can make inferences of what people think and do.
Decision making research:
– Do humans think using the laws of probability?
■ Problem solving research
– Unlike research into reasoning and decision making, participants come up
with the solutions themselves
■ Creativity research
– How are novel products and ideas created?
■ Research on analogy-making
– To what extent can knowledge acquired in a domain be transferred in a
different domain?
These approaches differ in
– The tasks studied
– The theoretical assumptions made
However, they all study the same question: thinking
■ The key conclusions are the same:
– Long-term memory knowledge is essential to thinking
– Limits in attention and short-term memory make even simple problems hard
to solve
– Whether attention is directed to the key aspects of the problem predicts
whether people will find a good solution
Are Humans Rational?
^ Key scientific question- studied in psychology and economics.
- Rationality- weak version- do we make decisions that allow us to reach our goals?
- Rationality- strong version- do we make the best decisions possible- do we optimise?
, - Research into reasoning and decision making sheds important light on the question
of rationality
REASONING:
Selection task WASON 1969
Most people opt for the E and 4 cards
but the card E is correct. If there is no
even number on the back of the E
card, the cards do not follow the rule,
the 4 card doesn’t bring in any new
information
What we need to do is to try to falsify
the rule
– This can be done by
turning over the card
“7”
– Only few people choose it
Wason’s task illustrates the confirmation bias
– A human tendency to confirm views held rather than falsify them
– This is a very common bias in human thinking
Concrete Version of WASON’s Task:
You are a police officer enforcing the rule that only persons over 18 can drink beer in
a pub
Rule: If someone in the bar is drinking beer then that person must be over 18
■ There are 4 persons in the bar
– The first is drinking beer, the second is drinking coke; the third is obviously
over 18, while the last seems under 18
– Whom do you need to check?
• The person drinking beer and the person looking under 18!
■ Around three out of four participants get the answer correct in the pub problem
– Griggs and Cox (1982)
– About one person in ten gets it right in the abstract version!
– Yet, the two problems are essentially the same
