TC 2-33.4
Intelligence Analysis
July 2009
DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only because it
requires protection in accordance with AR 380-5 and as specified by DCS G-3 Message DTG 091913Z Mar
04. This determination was made on 12 January 2009. Contractor and other requests must be referred to
ATTN: ATZS-CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via email at
.
DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that prevents disclosure of contents or reconstruction of
the document in accordance with AR 380-5.
Headquarters, Department of the Army
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
,This page intentionally left blank.
, *TC 2-33.4
Training Circular Headquarters
No. 2-33.4 Department of the Army
Washington, DC, 1 July 2009
Intelligence Analysis
Contents
Page
PREFACE ............................................................................................................... v
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. vii
Chapter 1 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS OVERVIEW ........................................................... 1-1
The Intelligence Warfighting Function ................................................................. 1-1
The Intelligence Analyst ....................................................................................... 1-1
Intelligence Analysis Process ..............................................................................1-2
Characteristics of Effective Intelligence ...............................................................1-2
The Intelligence Process ..................................................................................... 1-2
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield ............................................................. 1-3
Intelligence Running Estimate ............................................................................. 1-3
The Military Decisionmaking Process ..................................................................1-3
Chapter 2 ANALYTICAL PROCESSES, METHODOLOGIES, AND TERMS .....................2-1
Overview .............................................................................................................. 2-1
Critical Thinking ................................................................................................... 2-1
Types of Reasoning ............................................................................................. 2-8
The Scientific Method .......................................................................................... 2-9
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ...................................................................2-10
Situational Logic .................................................................................................2-18
Applying Theory ................................................................................................. 2-19
Comparison ........................................................................................................2-19
Modeling ............................................................................................................ 2-19
Processes for Intelligence Analysis ...................................................................2-20
Analytical Terms ................................................................................................ 2-21
DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only because it requires
protection in accordance with AR 380-5 and as specified by DCS G-3 Message DTG 091913Z Mar 04. This
determination was made on 12 January 2009. Contractor and other requests must be referred to ATTN: ATZS-
CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via email at ATZS-FDC-
.
DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that prevents disclosure of contents or reconstruction of the
document in accordance with AR 380-5.
* This publication supersedes FM 34-3, 15 March 1990.
i
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
, Contents
Chapter 3 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO SITUATIONAL UNDERSTANDING ................... 3-1
Threat Analysis .................................................................................................... 3-1
Threat Characteristics Recordkeeping and Database ...................................... 3-12
Terrain Analysis ................................................................................................. 3-14
Weather Analysis .............................................................................................. 3-17
Civil Considerations ........................................................................................... 3-20
Cultural Database .............................................................................................. 3-24
Chapter 4 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO COURSE OF ACTION DEVELOPMENT 4-1
Situation Development ........................................................................................ 4-1
The Situation Map ............................................................................................... 4-2
Functional Analysis.............................................................................................. 4-6
Threat Courses of Action..................................................................................... 4-9
Indicators ........................................................................................................... 4-11
Chapter 5 ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND PRODUCTS .......................................................... 5-1
Analytical Techniques and Tools ......................................................................... 5-1
Automation Support to Intelligence Analysis ..................................................... 5-18
Appendix A ANALYTICAL PITFALLS .................................................................................. A-1
Appendix B THE INTELLIGENCE RUNNING ESTIMATE ................................................... B-1
Appendix C INDICATORS..................................................................................................... C-1
Appendix D OTHER ANALYTICAL APPROACHES ............................................................ D-1
Appendix E THREAT CHARACTERISTICS AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN
COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS ........................................................ E-1
GLOSSARY .......................................................................................... Glossary-1
REFERENCES.................................................................................. References-1
INDEX ......................................................................................................... Index-1
Figures
Figure 2-1. Example of analysis of competing hypotheses matrix ........................................ 2-13
Figure 3-1. Grouping mobility corridors to establish avenues of approach ........................... 3-15
Figure 3-2. Combined obstacle overlay example .................................................................. 3-16
Figure 3-3. Example light data chart......................................................................................3-18
Figure 3-4. National Weather Service wind chill factor chart ................................................ 3-18
Figure 3-5. Example of a weather effects chart ..................................................................... 3-19
Figure 3-6. Example of shared weather effects analysis ....................................................... 3-20
Figure 3-7. Example civil considerations product concerning tribes and ethnic groups .......3-23
Figure 3-8. Example population status overlay ..................................................................... 3-24
Figure 4-1. Cycle for situational understanding ....................................................................... 4-2
Figure 4-2. Example of a situation map ................................................................................... 4-5
Figure 4-3. Depiction of threat functions during an assault ..................................................... 4-7
Contents
iv TC 2-33.4 1 July 2009
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Intelligence Analysis
July 2009
DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only because it
requires protection in accordance with AR 380-5 and as specified by DCS G-3 Message DTG 091913Z Mar
04. This determination was made on 12 January 2009. Contractor and other requests must be referred to
ATTN: ATZS-CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via email at
.
DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that prevents disclosure of contents or reconstruction of
the document in accordance with AR 380-5.
Headquarters, Department of the Army
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
,This page intentionally left blank.
, *TC 2-33.4
Training Circular Headquarters
No. 2-33.4 Department of the Army
Washington, DC, 1 July 2009
Intelligence Analysis
Contents
Page
PREFACE ............................................................................................................... v
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. vii
Chapter 1 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS OVERVIEW ........................................................... 1-1
The Intelligence Warfighting Function ................................................................. 1-1
The Intelligence Analyst ....................................................................................... 1-1
Intelligence Analysis Process ..............................................................................1-2
Characteristics of Effective Intelligence ...............................................................1-2
The Intelligence Process ..................................................................................... 1-2
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield ............................................................. 1-3
Intelligence Running Estimate ............................................................................. 1-3
The Military Decisionmaking Process ..................................................................1-3
Chapter 2 ANALYTICAL PROCESSES, METHODOLOGIES, AND TERMS .....................2-1
Overview .............................................................................................................. 2-1
Critical Thinking ................................................................................................... 2-1
Types of Reasoning ............................................................................................. 2-8
The Scientific Method .......................................................................................... 2-9
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ...................................................................2-10
Situational Logic .................................................................................................2-18
Applying Theory ................................................................................................. 2-19
Comparison ........................................................................................................2-19
Modeling ............................................................................................................ 2-19
Processes for Intelligence Analysis ...................................................................2-20
Analytical Terms ................................................................................................ 2-21
DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only because it requires
protection in accordance with AR 380-5 and as specified by DCS G-3 Message DTG 091913Z Mar 04. This
determination was made on 12 January 2009. Contractor and other requests must be referred to ATTN: ATZS-
CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via email at ATZS-FDC-
.
DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that prevents disclosure of contents or reconstruction of the
document in accordance with AR 380-5.
* This publication supersedes FM 34-3, 15 March 1990.
i
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
, Contents
Chapter 3 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO SITUATIONAL UNDERSTANDING ................... 3-1
Threat Analysis .................................................................................................... 3-1
Threat Characteristics Recordkeeping and Database ...................................... 3-12
Terrain Analysis ................................................................................................. 3-14
Weather Analysis .............................................................................................. 3-17
Civil Considerations ........................................................................................... 3-20
Cultural Database .............................................................................................. 3-24
Chapter 4 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO COURSE OF ACTION DEVELOPMENT 4-1
Situation Development ........................................................................................ 4-1
The Situation Map ............................................................................................... 4-2
Functional Analysis.............................................................................................. 4-6
Threat Courses of Action..................................................................................... 4-9
Indicators ........................................................................................................... 4-11
Chapter 5 ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND PRODUCTS .......................................................... 5-1
Analytical Techniques and Tools ......................................................................... 5-1
Automation Support to Intelligence Analysis ..................................................... 5-18
Appendix A ANALYTICAL PITFALLS .................................................................................. A-1
Appendix B THE INTELLIGENCE RUNNING ESTIMATE ................................................... B-1
Appendix C INDICATORS..................................................................................................... C-1
Appendix D OTHER ANALYTICAL APPROACHES ............................................................ D-1
Appendix E THREAT CHARACTERISTICS AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN
COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS ........................................................ E-1
GLOSSARY .......................................................................................... Glossary-1
REFERENCES.................................................................................. References-1
INDEX ......................................................................................................... Index-1
Figures
Figure 2-1. Example of analysis of competing hypotheses matrix ........................................ 2-13
Figure 3-1. Grouping mobility corridors to establish avenues of approach ........................... 3-15
Figure 3-2. Combined obstacle overlay example .................................................................. 3-16
Figure 3-3. Example light data chart......................................................................................3-18
Figure 3-4. National Weather Service wind chill factor chart ................................................ 3-18
Figure 3-5. Example of a weather effects chart ..................................................................... 3-19
Figure 3-6. Example of shared weather effects analysis ....................................................... 3-20
Figure 3-7. Example civil considerations product concerning tribes and ethnic groups .......3-23
Figure 3-8. Example population status overlay ..................................................................... 3-24
Figure 4-1. Cycle for situational understanding ....................................................................... 4-2
Figure 4-2. Example of a situation map ................................................................................... 4-5
Figure 4-3. Depiction of threat functions during an assault ..................................................... 4-7
Contents
iv TC 2-33.4 1 July 2009
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
