Congressional elections
Incumbency advantage
Name recognition
o Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
Keep the status quo
o Robert D Byrd served for 51 years (West Virginia)
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
Mid-term structure
Seen as just a referendum on the presidency
Obama lost Senate 2014
GW Bush lost both houses 2006 – just 37% approval at the time
Average Congressional approval ratings are 25%
Dropped to 18% Jan 2022
The change in leadership is therefore due to the views on Congress not the Executive
Gerrymandering
Changes the Representative and Senate
o 2010, GOP launched Operation REDMAP to redraw swing blue states – cost $30m
o In 2011, GOP redrew lines in North Carolina and Pennsylvania – year after,
Democrats won more votes by only won 9 out of 31 seats
1960s, SC mandated redistricting after each census
Rucho v Common cause + Lamone v Benisek, SC declined judgement – a matter for state not
federal
Incumbency advantage
Name recognition
o Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
Keep the status quo
o Robert D Byrd served for 51 years (West Virginia)
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
Mid-term structure
Seen as just a referendum on the presidency
Obama lost Senate 2014
GW Bush lost both houses 2006 – just 37% approval at the time
Average Congressional approval ratings are 25%
Dropped to 18% Jan 2022
The change in leadership is therefore due to the views on Congress not the Executive
Gerrymandering
Changes the Representative and Senate
o 2010, GOP launched Operation REDMAP to redraw swing blue states – cost $30m
o In 2011, GOP redrew lines in North Carolina and Pennsylvania – year after,
Democrats won more votes by only won 9 out of 31 seats
1960s, SC mandated redistricting after each census
Rucho v Common cause + Lamone v Benisek, SC declined judgement – a matter for state not
federal
