USArmy_IntelAnalysis COMPLETE STUDY

Intelligence Analysis Contents Page PREFACE v INTRODUCTION vii Chapter 1 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS OVERVIEW 1-1 The Intelligence Warfighting Function 1-1 The Intelligence Analyst 1-1 Intelligence Analysis Process 1-2 Characteristics of Effective Intelligence 1-2 The Intelligence Process 1-2 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield 1-3 Intelligence Running Estimate 1-3 The Military Decisionmaking Process 1-3 Chapter 2 ANALYTICAL PROCESSES, METHODOLOGIES, AND TERMS 2-1 Overview 2-1 Critical Thinking 2-1 Types of Reasoning 2-8 The Scientific Method 2-9 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 2-10 Situational Logic 2-18 Applying Theory 2-19 Comparison 2-19 Modeling 2-19 Processes for Intelligence Analysis 2-20 Analytical Terms 2-21 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only because it requires protection in accordance with AR 380-5 and as specified by DCS G-3 Message DTG Z Mar 04. This determination was made on 12 January 2009. Contractor and other requests must be referred to ATTN: ATZS- CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, AZ , or via email at ATZS-FDC- . DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that prevents disclosure of contents or reconstruction of the document in accordance with AR 380-5. * This publication supersedes FM 34-3, 15 March 1990. i Chapter 3 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO SITUATIONAL UNDERSTANDING 3-1 Threat Analysis 3-1 Threat Characteristics Recordkeeping and Database 3-12 Terrain Analysis 3-14 Weather Analysis 3-17 Civil Considerations 3-20 Cultural Database 3-24 Chapter 4 ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO COURSE OF ACTION DEVELOPMENT 4-1 Situation Development 4-1 The Situation Map 4-2 Functional Analysis 4-6 Threat Courses of Action 4-9 Indicators 4-11 Chapter 5 ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND PRODUCTS 5-1 Analytical Techniques and Tools 5-1 Automation Support to Intelligence Analysis 5-18 Appendix A ANALYTICAL PITFALLS .................................................................................. A-1 Appendix B THE INTELLIGENCE RUNNING ESTIMATE ................................................... B-1 Appendix C INDICATORS..................................................................................................... C-1 Appendix D OTHER ANALYTICAL APPROACHES ............................................................ D-1 Appendix E THREAT CHARACTERISTICS AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS ........................................................ E-1 GLOSSARY .......................................................................................... Glossary-1 REFERENCES.................................................................................. References-1 INDEX ......................................................................................................... Index-1 Figures Figure 2-1. Example of analysis of competing hypotheses matrix 2-13 Figure 3-1. Grouping mobility corridors to establish avenues of approach 3-15 Figure 3-2. Combined obstacle overlay example 3-16 Figure 3-3. Example light data chart 3-18 Figure 3-4. National Weather Service wind chill factor chart 3-18 Figure 3-5. Example of a weather effects chart 3-19 Figure 3-6. Example of shared weather effects analysis 3-20 Figure 3-7. Example civil considerations product concerning tribes and ethnic groups 3-23 Figure 3-8. Example population status overlay 3-24 Figure 4-1. Cycle for situational understanding 4-2 Figure 4-2. Example of a situation map 4-5 Figure 4-3. Depiction of threat functions during an assault 4-7 Contents Figure 4-4. Using a complete mission as an enabler for another larger mission 4-8 Figure 5-1. Example of a pattern analysis plot sheet 5-3 Figure 5-2. Example of an incident overlay 5-4 Figure 5-3. Example of nodes in a network 5-5 Figure 5-4. Notional iconic representation of nodal component analysis by activity. 5-6 Figure 5-5. Example enemy IED network nodal diagram showing relationships 5-9 Figure 5-6. Sample time event chart 5-10 Figure 5-7. Example time event chart using Analyst Notebook software 5-11 Figure 5-8. Association matrix symbology 5-12 Figure 5-9. Association matrix example 5-13 Figure 5-10. Activities matrix example 5-13 Figure 5-11. Link diagram concept 5-14 Figure 5-12. Example link diagram using Analyst Notebook 5-15 Figure 5-13. Link diagram example using Analyst Notebook software 5-15 Figure 5-14. Analyst Notebook link diagram showing information from an activity matrix 5-16 Figure 5-15. Analyst Notebook link diagram showing nonpersonal relationship 5-16 Figure 5-16. Analyst Notebook hierarchy layout 5-17 Figure 5-17. Completed link diagram with supporting matrices 5-17 Figure B-1. Annotated intelligence running estimate format ..................................................B-2 Figure D-1. CARVER value rating scale (notional) ............................................................... D-2 Figure D-2. Example of DSHARPP matrix tool ..................................................................... D-4 Figure D-3. Sample imagery of target area ........................................................................... D-5 Figure D-4. Sample sketch of target area ............................................................................. D-6 Figure D-5. Sample of labeled target building (rear) ............................................................. D-8 Tables Table 3-1. Threat characteristics 3-2 Table 3-2. Examples of civil considerations 3-22 Table 5-1. Possible nodes located in an improvised explosive device network 5-7 Table C-1. Sample offensive indicators................................................................................. C-2 Table C-2. Sample defensive indicators ............................................................................... C-4 Table C-3. Sample delaying indicators.................................................................................. C-5 Table C-4. Sample withdrawal indicators .............................................................................. C-5 Table C-5. Sample population indicators .............................................................................. C-6 Table C-6. Sample propaganda indicators............................................................................ C-8 Table C-7. Sample commodities indicators........................................................................... C-9 Table C-8. Environment-related indicators.......................................................................... C-10 Table C-9. Improvised explosive device indicators ............................................................. C-11 Table C-10. Sample threat environment indicators C-11 Table C-11. Recurrence of same clan indicators ................................................................ C-12 Table D-1. Structure analysis matrix...................................................................................... D-6 Table D-2. Sample building analysis matrix........................................................................... D-7 Table D-3. Example intelligence requirements for individual buildings ................................. D-8 Table D-4. Example intelligence requirements for an individual person .............................D-10 ...................................................continued...................................