Population
It seems Kenya started to go through stage three of the demographic transition from 1980 and is yet
to complete the demographic transition. From the data, Kenya’s birth rate remained consistently
higher than the rest of the world’s, US’, Japan’s and all developing countries’ birth rates. However,
Kenya’s birth rate fell below that of other developing Sub-Saharan African countries in the late
1980’s and thereafter continued to follow closely the other Sub-Saharan African countries’ trend.
This suggests that Kenya’s birth rate pattern was typical of her region, developing Sub-Saharan
Africa. Kenya’s birth rate started to decline considerably from 1980. Kenya’s birth rate dropped
greatly from 49.4 in 1980 to 42.4 in 1990. The birth rate fell greatly again from 39.8 in 2000 to 35.1
in 2010. Similarly, Kenya’s fertility rate remained significantly higher than that of the US’, Japan’s and
the world’s rate. However, Kenya’s fertility rate saw a steady decline from 1980. The high birth rate
and fertility rate which followed Sub-Saharan Africa’s pattern indicates the probable causes.
Regarding the generally high fertility rate, poor access to and awareness of contraception due to
poor education, poor infrastructure or transport systems affect many regions within Kenya and more
broadly across Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, personal Kenyan values, like other Sub-Saharan African
values may also contribute to the generally higher fertility rate than the world’s or developed
countries’ rates. This includes the view that having many children denotes a sign of masculinity and
includes gender relations which diminish women’s choice in childbirth. Foreign aid improving access
to and awareness of contraception, as well as improvements in infrastructure might explain the
decline in fertility rate from 1980. A multitude of factors may have contributed to the declining birth
rates, including changing attitudes about children, greater access to family planning, improved
women’s employment and greater infant survival. Kenya’s demographic transition is incomplete
with relatively high birth rates remaining. Cain and Paterson attribute this to Sub-Saharan Africa’s
persistent reluctance for contraceptive use and relatively low education and women’s job
opportunity levels.
This accompanied a generally falling death rate over the period. Kenya’s death rate remained
consistently below that of developing Sub-Saharan Africa. There was a large reduction in death rate
between the 1960 rate of 20.2 deaths and the 1970 rate of 15.4, and again between 1970 and the
1980 rate of 11.5. 2000 saw a spike in the death rate to 12.4. This fell to 7.3 by 2010. For the first
time Kenya’s death rate fell below but remained close to the world’s rate of 7.9, Japan’s slightly
higher rate of 9.5 and the US’ rate of 8. Diseases of poverty such as malaria, pneumonia and
malnutrition explain the very high death rates at the beginning of the period. A falling mean
population age and improvements in health care facilities, especially for children, explain the general
death rate reduction. Kenya is a relatively richer area within the developing Sub-Saharan African
countries and so has better medical facilities. Kenya’s private healthcare sector is one of the most
advanced in sub-Saharan Africa, is comparable to developed countries’ hospitals and is highly
accessible to even the poorest 20% of Kenyans, according to a World Bank report. 1 This perhaps
explains why Kenya’s death rate stayed below that of the average Sub-Saharan African countries and
fell below that of developed countries by 2010. A malaria or HIV epidemic may have caused the 2000
death rate spike.
Japan seems to have fully completed the demographic transition, exhibiting low birth and death
rates. Japan followed the worldwide pattern of decreasing fertility and birth rates after 1970,
although Japan had considerably lower initial fertility and birth rates. Japan’s birth rate remained
1
Wikipedia
, unusually low over the period compared to the developed country rate as demonstrated by the US.
Generally, except in 1970, Japan’s birth rate was lower than that of the US. The US’ fertility rate is
perhaps less representative of a developed country for comparative purposes. Regional variations
with high income inequality and low education levels have high fertility levels. This exacerbated the
US fertility level somewhat as slightly higher than that of the typical developed country.
Nonetheless, Japan’s birth rates were generally lower than and followed the declining pattern of
developed countries. Japan’s birth rate was much lower than Kenya’s and the world’s birth rates
over the period. Japan’s birth rate was also atypical of the experience of the rest of East Asia and the
Pacific. From the graph, Japan’s birth rates remained much lower than that of East Asia’s. Japan’s
birth rate fell from 18.7 in 1970 to 13.5 in 1980, followed by a further significant fall in 1990 to a rate
of 10 and further reductions thereafter. Japan’s fertility rate decreased steadily over the period,
falling from the replacement rate of 2 in 1960 to 1.4 in 2010. Japan’s fertility rate remained lower
than other developed countries such as the United States, the world rate and that of
underdeveloped countries such as Kenya. Urbanisation and women prioritising their education and
careers over a family could explain the low fertility and thus, low birth rates. Also, increasing child-
rearing costs could have limited family sizes, not out of choice but practicality.
Japan’s death rate remained lower than that of the US, Kenya and Japan consistently throughout the
period. Nonetheless, Japan’s death rate at first decreased, then increased after 1980. Japan’s death
rate fell from 7.6 in 1960 to 6.1 in 1980, and then increased by 2010 to 9.5. Until the late 1980’s
Japan’s death rate remained lower than that of East Asia. Thereafter, Japan’s death rate overtook
that of East Asia and increased, whilst East Asia saw a declining pattern. Japan’s low and generally
declining death rate reflected the experience of other developed countries. Wealthier countries had
better education for preventative measures, better healthcare facilities and food and drug
availability and so saw a decline in death rates. Perhaps the increasing death rate from the 1980’s
was due to Japan’s high elderly population. The 1990’s economic crash in Japan and economic
stagnation may have caused a decline in healthcare. Declining healthcare capacity coupled with the
aging population may have caused the increases in death rate.
Historians have debated the importance of personal choice in reducing fertility rates during the
demographic transition. Coale and Watkins referred to a rational decision-making process about
family size, suggesting a level of autonomy causing the fertility rates’ reduction. Montgomery and
Cohen concurred, acknowledging changing economic conditions and referring to a greater
preference for birth planning as a natural response to lowering infant mortality rates. This suggests
that improving public health directed people’s choices, with some guidance from economic
conditions. Taussig discussed a multitude of causes, including improving public healthcare and
greater social opportunities. However, Taussig stressed that changing ‘economic pressure’, such as
increasing consumption and increasing costs of children such as in the quality of education,
‘favoured smaller families’. In this way, people chose to reduce their fertility rate. For Taussig,
economic changes primarily directed people to have fewer children due to economic viability and
the expenses of children and lifestyles that parents wished to maintain. Perhaps people had less
freedom or autonomy to choose their number of children than Coale and Watkins suggested.
Perhaps in developed countries such as Japan, the economy dictated that people reduced their
fertility rate. Increasing child-rearing costs invalidated the option of having children. Others made
choices based on work commitments or the desire to sustain consumerist lifestyles. Conversely in
underdeveloped countries, people made different choices about children due to greater access to
contraception facilities, improvements in infant healthcare and women’s work opportunities. It
seems the economic burden of children primarily dictated a reduction in fertility for people in
developed countries. However, in underdeveloped countries such as Kenya, having access through
It seems Kenya started to go through stage three of the demographic transition from 1980 and is yet
to complete the demographic transition. From the data, Kenya’s birth rate remained consistently
higher than the rest of the world’s, US’, Japan’s and all developing countries’ birth rates. However,
Kenya’s birth rate fell below that of other developing Sub-Saharan African countries in the late
1980’s and thereafter continued to follow closely the other Sub-Saharan African countries’ trend.
This suggests that Kenya’s birth rate pattern was typical of her region, developing Sub-Saharan
Africa. Kenya’s birth rate started to decline considerably from 1980. Kenya’s birth rate dropped
greatly from 49.4 in 1980 to 42.4 in 1990. The birth rate fell greatly again from 39.8 in 2000 to 35.1
in 2010. Similarly, Kenya’s fertility rate remained significantly higher than that of the US’, Japan’s and
the world’s rate. However, Kenya’s fertility rate saw a steady decline from 1980. The high birth rate
and fertility rate which followed Sub-Saharan Africa’s pattern indicates the probable causes.
Regarding the generally high fertility rate, poor access to and awareness of contraception due to
poor education, poor infrastructure or transport systems affect many regions within Kenya and more
broadly across Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, personal Kenyan values, like other Sub-Saharan African
values may also contribute to the generally higher fertility rate than the world’s or developed
countries’ rates. This includes the view that having many children denotes a sign of masculinity and
includes gender relations which diminish women’s choice in childbirth. Foreign aid improving access
to and awareness of contraception, as well as improvements in infrastructure might explain the
decline in fertility rate from 1980. A multitude of factors may have contributed to the declining birth
rates, including changing attitudes about children, greater access to family planning, improved
women’s employment and greater infant survival. Kenya’s demographic transition is incomplete
with relatively high birth rates remaining. Cain and Paterson attribute this to Sub-Saharan Africa’s
persistent reluctance for contraceptive use and relatively low education and women’s job
opportunity levels.
This accompanied a generally falling death rate over the period. Kenya’s death rate remained
consistently below that of developing Sub-Saharan Africa. There was a large reduction in death rate
between the 1960 rate of 20.2 deaths and the 1970 rate of 15.4, and again between 1970 and the
1980 rate of 11.5. 2000 saw a spike in the death rate to 12.4. This fell to 7.3 by 2010. For the first
time Kenya’s death rate fell below but remained close to the world’s rate of 7.9, Japan’s slightly
higher rate of 9.5 and the US’ rate of 8. Diseases of poverty such as malaria, pneumonia and
malnutrition explain the very high death rates at the beginning of the period. A falling mean
population age and improvements in health care facilities, especially for children, explain the general
death rate reduction. Kenya is a relatively richer area within the developing Sub-Saharan African
countries and so has better medical facilities. Kenya’s private healthcare sector is one of the most
advanced in sub-Saharan Africa, is comparable to developed countries’ hospitals and is highly
accessible to even the poorest 20% of Kenyans, according to a World Bank report. 1 This perhaps
explains why Kenya’s death rate stayed below that of the average Sub-Saharan African countries and
fell below that of developed countries by 2010. A malaria or HIV epidemic may have caused the 2000
death rate spike.
Japan seems to have fully completed the demographic transition, exhibiting low birth and death
rates. Japan followed the worldwide pattern of decreasing fertility and birth rates after 1970,
although Japan had considerably lower initial fertility and birth rates. Japan’s birth rate remained
1
Wikipedia
, unusually low over the period compared to the developed country rate as demonstrated by the US.
Generally, except in 1970, Japan’s birth rate was lower than that of the US. The US’ fertility rate is
perhaps less representative of a developed country for comparative purposes. Regional variations
with high income inequality and low education levels have high fertility levels. This exacerbated the
US fertility level somewhat as slightly higher than that of the typical developed country.
Nonetheless, Japan’s birth rates were generally lower than and followed the declining pattern of
developed countries. Japan’s birth rate was much lower than Kenya’s and the world’s birth rates
over the period. Japan’s birth rate was also atypical of the experience of the rest of East Asia and the
Pacific. From the graph, Japan’s birth rates remained much lower than that of East Asia’s. Japan’s
birth rate fell from 18.7 in 1970 to 13.5 in 1980, followed by a further significant fall in 1990 to a rate
of 10 and further reductions thereafter. Japan’s fertility rate decreased steadily over the period,
falling from the replacement rate of 2 in 1960 to 1.4 in 2010. Japan’s fertility rate remained lower
than other developed countries such as the United States, the world rate and that of
underdeveloped countries such as Kenya. Urbanisation and women prioritising their education and
careers over a family could explain the low fertility and thus, low birth rates. Also, increasing child-
rearing costs could have limited family sizes, not out of choice but practicality.
Japan’s death rate remained lower than that of the US, Kenya and Japan consistently throughout the
period. Nonetheless, Japan’s death rate at first decreased, then increased after 1980. Japan’s death
rate fell from 7.6 in 1960 to 6.1 in 1980, and then increased by 2010 to 9.5. Until the late 1980’s
Japan’s death rate remained lower than that of East Asia. Thereafter, Japan’s death rate overtook
that of East Asia and increased, whilst East Asia saw a declining pattern. Japan’s low and generally
declining death rate reflected the experience of other developed countries. Wealthier countries had
better education for preventative measures, better healthcare facilities and food and drug
availability and so saw a decline in death rates. Perhaps the increasing death rate from the 1980’s
was due to Japan’s high elderly population. The 1990’s economic crash in Japan and economic
stagnation may have caused a decline in healthcare. Declining healthcare capacity coupled with the
aging population may have caused the increases in death rate.
Historians have debated the importance of personal choice in reducing fertility rates during the
demographic transition. Coale and Watkins referred to a rational decision-making process about
family size, suggesting a level of autonomy causing the fertility rates’ reduction. Montgomery and
Cohen concurred, acknowledging changing economic conditions and referring to a greater
preference for birth planning as a natural response to lowering infant mortality rates. This suggests
that improving public health directed people’s choices, with some guidance from economic
conditions. Taussig discussed a multitude of causes, including improving public healthcare and
greater social opportunities. However, Taussig stressed that changing ‘economic pressure’, such as
increasing consumption and increasing costs of children such as in the quality of education,
‘favoured smaller families’. In this way, people chose to reduce their fertility rate. For Taussig,
economic changes primarily directed people to have fewer children due to economic viability and
the expenses of children and lifestyles that parents wished to maintain. Perhaps people had less
freedom or autonomy to choose their number of children than Coale and Watkins suggested.
Perhaps in developed countries such as Japan, the economy dictated that people reduced their
fertility rate. Increasing child-rearing costs invalidated the option of having children. Others made
choices based on work commitments or the desire to sustain consumerist lifestyles. Conversely in
underdeveloped countries, people made different choices about children due to greater access to
contraception facilities, improvements in infant healthcare and women’s work opportunities. It
seems the economic burden of children primarily dictated a reduction in fertility for people in
developed countries. However, in underdeveloped countries such as Kenya, having access through
