Changing population 3
1.1 Population & economic development patterns 3
Factors affecting population distribution at a global scale 3
Physical factors affecting population distribution: 3
Human factors affecting population distribution: 4
Global patterns & classification of economic development 5
Population distribution & economic development at the national scale 6
Case study: South Africa 6
Population distribution in South Africa: 6
Internal & international migration in south africa: 7
1.2 Changing populations & places 8
Population change and demographic transition over time 8
The demographic transition model (DTM): 8
Natural change: 8
Total fertility rate: 9
Life expectancy: 9
Dependency ratio: 9
Age/sex pyramids: 10
The consequences of megacity growth for individuals and societies 13
Case study: Mumbai 13
The causes and consequences of forced migration 15
Types of forced migration: 15
Types of forced migrant: 15
Case study: forced migration in & from Syria 16
1.3 Challenges & opportunities 16
Challenges and opportunities 16
Ageing/ Greying population: 16
Sex ratio: 17
Average household sizes: 17
Ageing populations 18
Case study: Japan 18
Pro-natalist & anti-natalist policies 19
Case study: China’s one child policy — anti-natalist policies 19
Case study: Denmark’s pro-natalist policies 21
Trafficking & anti-trafficking policies 21
Definition: 21
Geographic patterns: 22
Populations at risk of trafficking: 22
Case study: trafficking of Nigerian women to Europe 22
Anti-trafficking policies: 22
The criminal justice response: 23
The demographic dividend 23
Demographic dividend in South Korea: 24
1
, 1.Changing populations
1.1 Population & economic development patterns
Factors affecting population distribution at a global scale
● Modern humans evolved in Sub-Saharan Africa about 200,000 years ago
● About 100,000 years ago we began migrating across the globe, concentrating around
coasts and following land that is easy to live on.
○ Our population remained low — probably less than 1 million people
● With the advent of farming 12,000 years ago, growth picked up
● By AD 1, world population reached 170 million people
● 2015 - 7.8 Billion people
● Projection - 9.5 B by 2100
● Levelling off -
○ Growth is slowing because average fertility rates are falling in nearly every
country
○ If fertility forecasts are slightly off, our peak population will peak lower or
higher
● It took 200,000 years to reach 1 million and 2000 years to reach 1 billion
● As our population has grown, our consumption has too
Physical factors affecting population distribution:
River:
cities and towns are often located next to rivers because
historically they provided routes for trade and also provided a
source of water for agriculture, industry and drinking water.
Desert:
sparsely populated due to no source of water and hot weather
so agriculture, industry and drinking water are not available or
possible.
Flat land:
are easier to build on and develop. The availability of natural
resources encourages a higher population density as it can
be processed and used in industry. Fertile land attracts a
higher density population as food can be grown. However, if
they are flood plains, they present the risk of flooding, so
building on them is prohibited or dangerous.
Resources:
The availability of natural resources encourages a higher
2
, population density as it can be processed and used in industry.
Mountains:
are inaccessible and difficult to construct buildings and build
roads. Since there is little or no infrastructure, it doesn’t attract
people as there are no economic opportunities and creates
challenges.
Human factors affecting population distribution:
Industrialisation:
Regions with little or no economic opportunities tend to be
sparsely populated as people can’t secure a stable income. On
the contrary, the availability of jobs and economic activities within
a region leads to an increase in population density.
Transportation:
Poor transport infrastructure provides considerable challenges,
especially with regards to accessibility leading to a low
population density. On the other hand, good transport
infrastructure attracts a high population density as people can
travel and commute easily. It allows the free movement of goods
which leads to the development of industry, providing jobs to
people in the local area.
Poverty:
Poor public services, including education and healthcare,
discourage people from living in the area. However, effective
public services attract people leading to a higher population
density. In addition, high levels of crime discourage people from
settling in the area.
Conflict:
Civil war and persecution can lead to a low population density as
people move to escape violence.
Government:
governmental corruption can also lead to a low density. However,
a safe and reliable government can encourage people to come to
a country, increasing population density.
3
1.1 Population & economic development patterns 3
Factors affecting population distribution at a global scale 3
Physical factors affecting population distribution: 3
Human factors affecting population distribution: 4
Global patterns & classification of economic development 5
Population distribution & economic development at the national scale 6
Case study: South Africa 6
Population distribution in South Africa: 6
Internal & international migration in south africa: 7
1.2 Changing populations & places 8
Population change and demographic transition over time 8
The demographic transition model (DTM): 8
Natural change: 8
Total fertility rate: 9
Life expectancy: 9
Dependency ratio: 9
Age/sex pyramids: 10
The consequences of megacity growth for individuals and societies 13
Case study: Mumbai 13
The causes and consequences of forced migration 15
Types of forced migration: 15
Types of forced migrant: 15
Case study: forced migration in & from Syria 16
1.3 Challenges & opportunities 16
Challenges and opportunities 16
Ageing/ Greying population: 16
Sex ratio: 17
Average household sizes: 17
Ageing populations 18
Case study: Japan 18
Pro-natalist & anti-natalist policies 19
Case study: China’s one child policy — anti-natalist policies 19
Case study: Denmark’s pro-natalist policies 21
Trafficking & anti-trafficking policies 21
Definition: 21
Geographic patterns: 22
Populations at risk of trafficking: 22
Case study: trafficking of Nigerian women to Europe 22
Anti-trafficking policies: 22
The criminal justice response: 23
The demographic dividend 23
Demographic dividend in South Korea: 24
1
, 1.Changing populations
1.1 Population & economic development patterns
Factors affecting population distribution at a global scale
● Modern humans evolved in Sub-Saharan Africa about 200,000 years ago
● About 100,000 years ago we began migrating across the globe, concentrating around
coasts and following land that is easy to live on.
○ Our population remained low — probably less than 1 million people
● With the advent of farming 12,000 years ago, growth picked up
● By AD 1, world population reached 170 million people
● 2015 - 7.8 Billion people
● Projection - 9.5 B by 2100
● Levelling off -
○ Growth is slowing because average fertility rates are falling in nearly every
country
○ If fertility forecasts are slightly off, our peak population will peak lower or
higher
● It took 200,000 years to reach 1 million and 2000 years to reach 1 billion
● As our population has grown, our consumption has too
Physical factors affecting population distribution:
River:
cities and towns are often located next to rivers because
historically they provided routes for trade and also provided a
source of water for agriculture, industry and drinking water.
Desert:
sparsely populated due to no source of water and hot weather
so agriculture, industry and drinking water are not available or
possible.
Flat land:
are easier to build on and develop. The availability of natural
resources encourages a higher population density as it can
be processed and used in industry. Fertile land attracts a
higher density population as food can be grown. However, if
they are flood plains, they present the risk of flooding, so
building on them is prohibited or dangerous.
Resources:
The availability of natural resources encourages a higher
2
, population density as it can be processed and used in industry.
Mountains:
are inaccessible and difficult to construct buildings and build
roads. Since there is little or no infrastructure, it doesn’t attract
people as there are no economic opportunities and creates
challenges.
Human factors affecting population distribution:
Industrialisation:
Regions with little or no economic opportunities tend to be
sparsely populated as people can’t secure a stable income. On
the contrary, the availability of jobs and economic activities within
a region leads to an increase in population density.
Transportation:
Poor transport infrastructure provides considerable challenges,
especially with regards to accessibility leading to a low
population density. On the other hand, good transport
infrastructure attracts a high population density as people can
travel and commute easily. It allows the free movement of goods
which leads to the development of industry, providing jobs to
people in the local area.
Poverty:
Poor public services, including education and healthcare,
discourage people from living in the area. However, effective
public services attract people leading to a higher population
density. In addition, high levels of crime discourage people from
settling in the area.
Conflict:
Civil war and persecution can lead to a low population density as
people move to escape violence.
Government:
governmental corruption can also lead to a low density. However,
a safe and reliable government can encourage people to come to
a country, increasing population density.
3
