VOTING BEHAVIOUR AND THE MEDIA
2024 general election:
- The Campaign
Rise of support of reform Uk- support rose from over 10% to 14%.
This was due to Nigel Farage becoming leader of the party. They
did damage to conservative parties by splitting the right wing
vote in leave voting constituencies.
Conservatives lost votes due to the following- 6th June Rishi Suak
was widely critised by the public for leaving an event
commemorating D-Day early to attend n ITV interview leaving
Cameron to deputize for him. 12th June, it emerged that a couple
of Conservative Party candidates, including Parliamentary Private
Secretary to the Prime Minister Craig Williams, had placed bets
on a July election days before it was announced, allegedly using
insider information- adding to the view that Tories were corrupt.
The liberal democrats won seats they all targeted including the
long standing tory stronghold in Oxfordshire- Leader Ed Davey
employed an interesting strategy of consistently doing fun
activities.
Competence, Trust and leadership:
Tories since 2019 were involved in a large number of scandals
with the public viewing them as corrupt and self- serving but also
wrecked the party’s reputation for competence and economic
management. Partygate, Liz Truss mini budget , Sunak who was
involved in party gate net favorability of -51%
Labor party victory was not built on popular support for policies/
leaders- instead it was successful due to publics strong desire to
get Tories out – YOU gov Poll found 48% voted for labor to get
Tories out
Starmer had a net favorability of -17% on election day- .
However, they were very successful in presenting themselves as
competent and the antithesis of the Tories.- They were boring
and uninspiring, but they didn’t put off voters due to appearing
too radical.
Labour moved to the centre ground promising not to raise
income tax or corporation tax which made the Conservative
Party’s usual attack line that they would hike taxes ineffective.
Starmer continually promised a return to a government of service
that was competent, rather than self-serving and incompetent.
This messaging was also successful in attacking the SNP in
, Scotland, with the party’s support dropping in large part due to a
party funding scandal.
Rational choice voting
40% of those with mortgages, privately renting or socially renting
voted for the Labour Party, reflecting the fact that Labour
promised improved rental conditions and mortgage rates had
increased significantly under the Conservatives.
Social factors
Age- An estimated 18% of 18-24 year olds voted Green, 41%
voted Labour, just 9% voted Reform and 8% voted Conservative.
○ In comparison, just 3% of over 60s voted Green. In this age
group, 24% voted Labour, 16% voted Reform and 40% voted
Conservative
Education level- Those with high levels of education were again
more likely to vote Labour or Lib Dem, whilst those with lower
levels of education were more likely to vote Reform or
Conservative. 42% with higher education voted labour compared
too 28% of lower education.
Ethnicity- Labour’s Muslim vote dropped significantly, however,
from an estimated 80% in 2019 to less than 60% in 2024. This is
largely due to Labour failing to call for a ceasefire in Gaza for a
long time in late 2023 and early 2024
Geographical changes- conservatives won 4/131 seats in the
north of England compared to 2019 where they won 56/131
seats. IN the south of England they won 30/91 seats compared to
2019 where they won 74. SNP hold on Scotland dismantled.
Media – 2024 election
You gov Poll found 58% of Britons got their news source from TV
and 43% socials
Labor party received endorsements from traditionally centrist
and right wing papers including sun, Sunday times and financial
times. Cons remained endorsed by right wing papers including
daily mail. polling by Best for Britain indicated that 52% of The
Daily Mail's readership and 47% of the Telegraph’s readership
intended to support Labour in the election. THE SUN HEADLING
“TIME FOR A NEW MANAGER ( AND WE DON’T MEAN SACK
SOUTHGATE”
TV debates had little impact- Sunak and Starmer on 4 June,
viewers were split almost exactly 50/50 on whether Sunak or
2024 general election:
- The Campaign
Rise of support of reform Uk- support rose from over 10% to 14%.
This was due to Nigel Farage becoming leader of the party. They
did damage to conservative parties by splitting the right wing
vote in leave voting constituencies.
Conservatives lost votes due to the following- 6th June Rishi Suak
was widely critised by the public for leaving an event
commemorating D-Day early to attend n ITV interview leaving
Cameron to deputize for him. 12th June, it emerged that a couple
of Conservative Party candidates, including Parliamentary Private
Secretary to the Prime Minister Craig Williams, had placed bets
on a July election days before it was announced, allegedly using
insider information- adding to the view that Tories were corrupt.
The liberal democrats won seats they all targeted including the
long standing tory stronghold in Oxfordshire- Leader Ed Davey
employed an interesting strategy of consistently doing fun
activities.
Competence, Trust and leadership:
Tories since 2019 were involved in a large number of scandals
with the public viewing them as corrupt and self- serving but also
wrecked the party’s reputation for competence and economic
management. Partygate, Liz Truss mini budget , Sunak who was
involved in party gate net favorability of -51%
Labor party victory was not built on popular support for policies/
leaders- instead it was successful due to publics strong desire to
get Tories out – YOU gov Poll found 48% voted for labor to get
Tories out
Starmer had a net favorability of -17% on election day- .
However, they were very successful in presenting themselves as
competent and the antithesis of the Tories.- They were boring
and uninspiring, but they didn’t put off voters due to appearing
too radical.
Labour moved to the centre ground promising not to raise
income tax or corporation tax which made the Conservative
Party’s usual attack line that they would hike taxes ineffective.
Starmer continually promised a return to a government of service
that was competent, rather than self-serving and incompetent.
This messaging was also successful in attacking the SNP in
, Scotland, with the party’s support dropping in large part due to a
party funding scandal.
Rational choice voting
40% of those with mortgages, privately renting or socially renting
voted for the Labour Party, reflecting the fact that Labour
promised improved rental conditions and mortgage rates had
increased significantly under the Conservatives.
Social factors
Age- An estimated 18% of 18-24 year olds voted Green, 41%
voted Labour, just 9% voted Reform and 8% voted Conservative.
○ In comparison, just 3% of over 60s voted Green. In this age
group, 24% voted Labour, 16% voted Reform and 40% voted
Conservative
Education level- Those with high levels of education were again
more likely to vote Labour or Lib Dem, whilst those with lower
levels of education were more likely to vote Reform or
Conservative. 42% with higher education voted labour compared
too 28% of lower education.
Ethnicity- Labour’s Muslim vote dropped significantly, however,
from an estimated 80% in 2019 to less than 60% in 2024. This is
largely due to Labour failing to call for a ceasefire in Gaza for a
long time in late 2023 and early 2024
Geographical changes- conservatives won 4/131 seats in the
north of England compared to 2019 where they won 56/131
seats. IN the south of England they won 30/91 seats compared to
2019 where they won 74. SNP hold on Scotland dismantled.
Media – 2024 election
You gov Poll found 58% of Britons got their news source from TV
and 43% socials
Labor party received endorsements from traditionally centrist
and right wing papers including sun, Sunday times and financial
times. Cons remained endorsed by right wing papers including
daily mail. polling by Best for Britain indicated that 52% of The
Daily Mail's readership and 47% of the Telegraph’s readership
intended to support Labour in the election. THE SUN HEADLING
“TIME FOR A NEW MANAGER ( AND WE DON’T MEAN SACK
SOUTHGATE”
TV debates had little impact- Sunak and Starmer on 4 June,
viewers were split almost exactly 50/50 on whether Sunak or
