Systems thinking
SYSTEMS
→ a set of things that interact in a way that generates a pattern of behaviour
Main components:
1. Elements
● Easiest parts to notice (often visible but not always)
● Changes in elements usually have the least effect on the system
2. Interconnections
● Relationships between elements, what holds the elements together
● Can be physical flows or the flows or information (harder to see)
3. Function/purpose
● The reason the system exists, noot always stated explicitly
● Changes in function/purpose can be drastic
System dynamics:
- Stock
● A “storage” or “accumulation” of something in a system
● If the stocks change, the system doesn’t drastically change (the system stays the
same if the flows remain unchanged)
- Flow
● How the stock increases or decreases over time
● Inflows add to the stock, outflows remove from the stock
● If the in and outflows between the stocks change, the system changes
- Feedback loops: when a system reacts to its own changes
1. Reinforcing (positive) feedback loops
● A change causes a reaction that amplifies the change (either growing
uncontrollably or collapsing completely)
● Example:
Cutting down trees → less moisture in the soil → less plant growth → drier soil → harder
for new trees to grow → more desert-like conditions (the process keeps getting worse
over time)
2. Balancing (negative) feedback loop: maintaining the equilibrium
● A change causes a response that keeps the stock level at desired level
(stability), counteracting changes
● Equilibrium: when level of inflow and outflow is steady
● Example:
Rabbit population increases → foxes have more food and the fox population grows →
rabbit population decreases → with fewer rabbits, the fox population decreases → let the
rabbit population recover (the cycle continues, keeping the ecosystem balanced)
Tools to understand the system
● Trend analysis: tracking data over
time to identify patterns or trends
● System archetypes: recurring
patterns of behaviour
● Concept/system mapping
● Causal loop diagrams (cause-effect
relationships)
● Scenarios and visioning
, ● Iceberg models (what’s visible vs deeper structures): understanding hidden and
deeper systemic causes/patterns
○ Visible: the event but it doesn’t make up the whole system
○ Rarely seen: patterns, trends, system structures, drivers, predominant
social paradigm
SYSTEMS THINKING
→ a way of understanding how different parts of a system connect and influence each
other (bigger picture)
Why:
● Change our thinking to match complexity: our world is full of interconnected
systems (helps us see the bigger pictures), systems thinking helps us understand
certain mechanisms and root causes of phenomena
● Communicate and develop shared understanding: encourages collaboration by
helping people see different perspectives
● Change our behaviour to work with the system
● Identify more possible actions and solutions: encourages multiple approaches
instead of relying on a single “one-size-fits-all” solution
● Become more aware of unintended consequences
A typology of problem situations
1. Simple problems:
● Easy to define (high level of agreement of what the problem is), high certainty on
how to solve the problems
● Example: easy to define the problem why a cookie is burnt, easy to fix the
problem
2. Complicated problems
● Difficult to solve, need extra information to define and fix the problem but still
smaller-scale and well-defined
● limited timescale, recognisable solution, priorities clear, know what needs to be
done, limited number of people involved, can be treated as a stand-alone matter,
limited applications
● Example: diseases (need knowledge but then still fixable)
3. Complex “wicked” problems
● Far from agreeing what the problem is and how it emerges, no exact solution
(multiple ways, aspects, elements)
● More people involved (global problem), no agreement on what the problem is, no
obvious solutions, longer and uncertain timescale, priorities debated, uncertain
but greater implications, can’t be disentangled from its context, keep evolving
Different systems require different management
, COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS THINKING
→ a system made up of multiple interconnected elements that interact in dynamic ways
and adapt or evolve in response to changes in their environment
Simple vs complex adaptive systems thinking
SYSTEMS THINKING IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES
Exponential growth: a process of multiplication that accelerates over time (reinforcing
loops)
Anthropocene: period in which human activities are dominating/shaping many aspects
of Earth’s environment and functioning
- Cause: population growth, globalisation
- Cascading impacts: one effect leads to multiple other effects/changes
Great acceleration: the rapid changes in human activity and impact on the Earth
system since the mid-20 century
- Driven by fossil fuel consumption, urbanisation, resource use
Planetary boundaries: 9 processes that are critical for maintaining stability and
resilience of Earth system as a whole (limits on how much humans can change the Earth
before causing serious damage)
- Holocene: a period characterised by relatively stable and warm planetary
conditions
How they are connected: exponential growth of human activities has led to the
Anthropocene
- Human population, consumption of resources have been growing exponentially,
leading to the anthropocene era
- The great acceleration and anthropocene have caused humans to cross planetary
boundaries
SYSTEMS
→ a set of things that interact in a way that generates a pattern of behaviour
Main components:
1. Elements
● Easiest parts to notice (often visible but not always)
● Changes in elements usually have the least effect on the system
2. Interconnections
● Relationships between elements, what holds the elements together
● Can be physical flows or the flows or information (harder to see)
3. Function/purpose
● The reason the system exists, noot always stated explicitly
● Changes in function/purpose can be drastic
System dynamics:
- Stock
● A “storage” or “accumulation” of something in a system
● If the stocks change, the system doesn’t drastically change (the system stays the
same if the flows remain unchanged)
- Flow
● How the stock increases or decreases over time
● Inflows add to the stock, outflows remove from the stock
● If the in and outflows between the stocks change, the system changes
- Feedback loops: when a system reacts to its own changes
1. Reinforcing (positive) feedback loops
● A change causes a reaction that amplifies the change (either growing
uncontrollably or collapsing completely)
● Example:
Cutting down trees → less moisture in the soil → less plant growth → drier soil → harder
for new trees to grow → more desert-like conditions (the process keeps getting worse
over time)
2. Balancing (negative) feedback loop: maintaining the equilibrium
● A change causes a response that keeps the stock level at desired level
(stability), counteracting changes
● Equilibrium: when level of inflow and outflow is steady
● Example:
Rabbit population increases → foxes have more food and the fox population grows →
rabbit population decreases → with fewer rabbits, the fox population decreases → let the
rabbit population recover (the cycle continues, keeping the ecosystem balanced)
Tools to understand the system
● Trend analysis: tracking data over
time to identify patterns or trends
● System archetypes: recurring
patterns of behaviour
● Concept/system mapping
● Causal loop diagrams (cause-effect
relationships)
● Scenarios and visioning
, ● Iceberg models (what’s visible vs deeper structures): understanding hidden and
deeper systemic causes/patterns
○ Visible: the event but it doesn’t make up the whole system
○ Rarely seen: patterns, trends, system structures, drivers, predominant
social paradigm
SYSTEMS THINKING
→ a way of understanding how different parts of a system connect and influence each
other (bigger picture)
Why:
● Change our thinking to match complexity: our world is full of interconnected
systems (helps us see the bigger pictures), systems thinking helps us understand
certain mechanisms and root causes of phenomena
● Communicate and develop shared understanding: encourages collaboration by
helping people see different perspectives
● Change our behaviour to work with the system
● Identify more possible actions and solutions: encourages multiple approaches
instead of relying on a single “one-size-fits-all” solution
● Become more aware of unintended consequences
A typology of problem situations
1. Simple problems:
● Easy to define (high level of agreement of what the problem is), high certainty on
how to solve the problems
● Example: easy to define the problem why a cookie is burnt, easy to fix the
problem
2. Complicated problems
● Difficult to solve, need extra information to define and fix the problem but still
smaller-scale and well-defined
● limited timescale, recognisable solution, priorities clear, know what needs to be
done, limited number of people involved, can be treated as a stand-alone matter,
limited applications
● Example: diseases (need knowledge but then still fixable)
3. Complex “wicked” problems
● Far from agreeing what the problem is and how it emerges, no exact solution
(multiple ways, aspects, elements)
● More people involved (global problem), no agreement on what the problem is, no
obvious solutions, longer and uncertain timescale, priorities debated, uncertain
but greater implications, can’t be disentangled from its context, keep evolving
Different systems require different management
, COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS THINKING
→ a system made up of multiple interconnected elements that interact in dynamic ways
and adapt or evolve in response to changes in their environment
Simple vs complex adaptive systems thinking
SYSTEMS THINKING IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES
Exponential growth: a process of multiplication that accelerates over time (reinforcing
loops)
Anthropocene: period in which human activities are dominating/shaping many aspects
of Earth’s environment and functioning
- Cause: population growth, globalisation
- Cascading impacts: one effect leads to multiple other effects/changes
Great acceleration: the rapid changes in human activity and impact on the Earth
system since the mid-20 century
- Driven by fossil fuel consumption, urbanisation, resource use
Planetary boundaries: 9 processes that are critical for maintaining stability and
resilience of Earth system as a whole (limits on how much humans can change the Earth
before causing serious damage)
- Holocene: a period characterised by relatively stable and warm planetary
conditions
How they are connected: exponential growth of human activities has led to the
Anthropocene
- Human population, consumption of resources have been growing exponentially,
leading to the anthropocene era
- The great acceleration and anthropocene have caused humans to cross planetary
boundaries
