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1
Crisis and Security Management Msc - Actors,
Institutions, and Constellations
+ Mandatory Reading Summaries.
+ Practice Exam Questions.
+ Quizlet Link to Practice for Exam.
+ Midterm Paper (grade = 8.1).
+ Lecture Notes.
Week 1 - 7 of SAIC, given at Leiden University.
Good luck on your final!
, 2
Required Readings....................................................................................................................................... 4
Popper, K. R. (1963). Science as Falsification. In Conjectures and Refutation (pp. 33–39). Routledge...... 4
Gerring, J. (1999). What Makes a Concept Good? A Critical Framework for Understanding Concept
Formation in the Social Sciences. Polity, 31(3), 358–393............................................................................. 6
Melogno, P. (2024). Normal Science: The Rise and Fall of Scientific Traditions.........................................8
Mahoney, J., & Goertz, G. (2006). A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative
Research. Political Analysis, 14(3), 227–249.............................................................................................. 11
Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter (2006). The Strategies of Terrorism.............................................16
Thomas, Jakana. (2014). Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil
War............................................................................................................................................................... 20
Tokdemir, E., & Klein, G. R. (2021). Strategic Interaction of Governments and Terrorist Groups in Times
of Economic Hardship..................................................................................................................................22
Weick, K. (1993). The collapse of sensemaking in organizations: The Mann Gulch disaster.
Administrative Science Quarterly, 38(4), 628–652......................................................................................27
Barton, M. A., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2009). Overcoming dysfunctional momentum- Organisational safety as
a social achievement.................................................................................................................................... 29
Wolbers, J., Boersma, K., & Groenewegen, P. (2018). Introducing a Fragmentation Perspective on
Coordination in Crisis Management............................................................................................................ 33
Wolbers, J. (2024) Unified command? Preliminary findings from a situation awareness experiment.......36
Druckman, J. N., Green, D. P., Kuklinski, J. H., & Lupia, A. (2011). Experiments- An Introduction to
Core Concepts.............................................................................................................................................. 39
Wagnsson, C., & Barzanje, C. (2021). A framework for analysing antagonistic narrative strategies- A
Russian tale of Swedish decline................................................................................................................... 42
Hellman, M. (2024). Narrative Analysis and Framing Analysis of Disinformation....................................45
Hoyle, A., Powell, T., Doosje, B., Van Den Berg, H., & Wagnsson, C. (2024). Weapons of mass division:
Sputnik Latvia ’s Russophobia narratives and testing the rejection‐identification model in Russian
speakers in Latvia. Political Psychology, 45(4), 753–772........................................................................... 47
Levy, J. S. (2008). Case Studies- Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference................................................ 49
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks
Shape State Coercion................................................................................................................................... 53
Drezner, D. (2022). How not to Sanction. International Affairs, 98(5), 1533–1552................................... 56
Hoye, J. M. (2024). OFAC, Famine, and the Sanctioning of Afghanistan- A Catastrophic Policy
Success......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Gonzalez-Ocantos, E., & Masullo, J. (2024). Aligning Interviewing with Process Tracing. Sociological
Methods & Research, 00491241241258229................................................................................................ 63
Costa, O., & Barbé, E. (2023). A moving target. EU actorness and the Russian invasion of Ukraine........65
Menzies, L. (2025). Elite Interviewing as an In-Betweener.........................................................................68
Dimitrova, A. L., Gürkan, S., & Koops, J. (2025). Stuck on the stairway of change: The EU’s enlargement
and security and defence policies post 2022................................................................................................ 70
Menjívar, C. (2014). Immigration Law Beyond Borders: Externalizing and Internalizing Border Controls
in an Era of Securitization. Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 10(1), 353–369...........................73
Cusumano, E. (2019). Migrant rescue as organized hypocrisy- EU maritime missions offshore Libya
between humanitarianism and border control.............................................................................................. 74
Maher, S. (2018). Out of West Africa- Human Smuggling as a Social Enterprise...................................... 79
, 3
Moreno‐Lax, V. (2018). The EU Humanitarian Border and the Securitization of Human Rights: The
‘Rescue‐Through‐Interdiction/Rescue‐Without‐Protection’ Paradigm.....................................................83
Brodkin, E. Z. (2017). The Ethnographic Turn in Political Science: Reflections on the State of the Art. PS:
Political Science & Politics, 50(1), 131–134. Cambridge Core...................................................................86
Clemens, M. A. (2022). Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline- The Last Half-Century of Global
Mobility........................................................................................................................................................ 88
Practice questions shown in class..............................................................................................................96
Quizlet + Extra links to practice............................................................................................................... 98
Midterm paper example............................................................................................................................ 99
Lecture Notes............................................................................................................................................ 108
, 4
Lecture 1
Popper, K. R. (1963). Science as Falsification. In Conjectures and Refutation (pp.
33–39). Routledge.
Popper's Core Philosophy: Conjecture and Refutation
● The common theme uniting Popper’s essays is that knowledge progresses by a method
of conjecture and refutation.
● This method involves proposing a hypothesis (a conjecture) and then subjecting it to
scrutiny by attempting to prove that it is false. If the hypothesis survives these tests, it is
provisionally accepted, but “its truth can never be known.”
Arguments
● Scientists begin not with observations, but with a problem or set of problems.
● Theories are considered pure conjectures, "free creations of our own minds", and the
result of "an almost poetic intuition".
● They are "self-made instruments of thought" and are not compelled by observations or
prior theories.
The Role of Observation and Demarcation
● The role is not in generating a theory but in testing it, criticising it, and trying to refute it.
● Observations can never verify theories because general statements (which theories
contain) cannot be logically inferred from any finite number of observation statements.
● Popper = rejects verificationism. Instead, he uses falsifiability (or testability) as the
criterion of demarcation to separate science from metaphysics.
Key principles of falsifiability and progress:
1. Irrefutability is not a virtue: Falsifiability admits of degrees (there’s no strict boundary
between science and metaphysics). Many scientific theories developed from myths which
were initially untestable, later gaining testable components.
2. Testability and Risk: Theories are "highly informative guesses" that, while not
verifiable, must be submitted to severe tests. Every genuine test is an attempt to disprove
or refute the theory.
3. Aiming for Truth: Popper compares truth to a mountain peak hidden by clouds: the
climber may never know when the peak has been found, but will know if they have not
reached it (i.e., if the theory is refuted).
4. Requirements for Progress: For progress to occur, theories must satisfy three criteria:
a. They should proceed from a simple, new, and powerful unifying idea.
b. They must have testable consequences beyond those they were originally
designed to explain.
, 5
c. They must pass some new and severe tests.
Verisimilitude (asked in exam)
● Popper also introduced the concept of verisimilitude (approximating the truth). Given two
theories, Tv1, and Tv2.
○ Tv2 = greater degree of verisimilitude if the class of true logical consequences
(truth-content) of Tv2 is greater than that of Tv1 (but not its false logical
consequences), or if Tv1's false logical consequences (falsity-content) is greater
than Tv2's (but not its truth-content).
Critiques of Popper's View
1. Limitations of the Conjecture/Refutation Model
a. The history of science does not always fit neatly into the proposing or testing of
theories. Scientific progress is often achieved through activities that are neither
proposing nor testing a hypothesis, such as:
2. Experimental Determination
a. Millikan's oil drop experiment aimed to make an exact determination of the value
of the elementary electrical charge, which was neither the proposing nor testing of
a pre-existing hypothesis regarding that specific value.
3. Constructing Analogies
a. Maxwell’s work to offer a "simplification and reduction of the results of previous
investigation" by elaborating a physical analogy (like the incompressible fluid
analogy for the electric field) was neither proposing nor testing a theory.
4. Other Activities
a. Reformulating hypotheses mathematically, introducing and defining new concepts
(like Gibbs' ensemble), redefining existing concepts (like Mach's mass), or
applying a theory to idealised systems (like Clausius applied thermodynamics to a
perfect gas) also contribute significantly to progress but do not necessarily
involve conjecturing or testing.
● Promoting scientific understanding is a sufficient condition for progress, which can be
achieved through these various activities, not just by leading to new conjectures or tests.
The Role of Observation in Theory Development
● Popper insists that the role of observation is solely or mainly critical (testing), Eg
(Conservation of Strangeness): Gell-Mann and Nishijima observed specific nuclear
reactions that failed to occur despite being permitted by known conservation laws.
● These experimental results were crucial in suggesting the existence of the principle of the
conservation of strangeness.
1
Crisis and Security Management Msc - Actors,
Institutions, and Constellations
+ Mandatory Reading Summaries.
+ Practice Exam Questions.
+ Quizlet Link to Practice for Exam.
+ Midterm Paper (grade = 8.1).
+ Lecture Notes.
Week 1 - 7 of SAIC, given at Leiden University.
Good luck on your final!
, 2
Required Readings....................................................................................................................................... 4
Popper, K. R. (1963). Science as Falsification. In Conjectures and Refutation (pp. 33–39). Routledge...... 4
Gerring, J. (1999). What Makes a Concept Good? A Critical Framework for Understanding Concept
Formation in the Social Sciences. Polity, 31(3), 358–393............................................................................. 6
Melogno, P. (2024). Normal Science: The Rise and Fall of Scientific Traditions.........................................8
Mahoney, J., & Goertz, G. (2006). A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative
Research. Political Analysis, 14(3), 227–249.............................................................................................. 11
Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter (2006). The Strategies of Terrorism.............................................16
Thomas, Jakana. (2014). Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil
War............................................................................................................................................................... 20
Tokdemir, E., & Klein, G. R. (2021). Strategic Interaction of Governments and Terrorist Groups in Times
of Economic Hardship..................................................................................................................................22
Weick, K. (1993). The collapse of sensemaking in organizations: The Mann Gulch disaster.
Administrative Science Quarterly, 38(4), 628–652......................................................................................27
Barton, M. A., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2009). Overcoming dysfunctional momentum- Organisational safety as
a social achievement.................................................................................................................................... 29
Wolbers, J., Boersma, K., & Groenewegen, P. (2018). Introducing a Fragmentation Perspective on
Coordination in Crisis Management............................................................................................................ 33
Wolbers, J. (2024) Unified command? Preliminary findings from a situation awareness experiment.......36
Druckman, J. N., Green, D. P., Kuklinski, J. H., & Lupia, A. (2011). Experiments- An Introduction to
Core Concepts.............................................................................................................................................. 39
Wagnsson, C., & Barzanje, C. (2021). A framework for analysing antagonistic narrative strategies- A
Russian tale of Swedish decline................................................................................................................... 42
Hellman, M. (2024). Narrative Analysis and Framing Analysis of Disinformation....................................45
Hoyle, A., Powell, T., Doosje, B., Van Den Berg, H., & Wagnsson, C. (2024). Weapons of mass division:
Sputnik Latvia ’s Russophobia narratives and testing the rejection‐identification model in Russian
speakers in Latvia. Political Psychology, 45(4), 753–772........................................................................... 47
Levy, J. S. (2008). Case Studies- Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference................................................ 49
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks
Shape State Coercion................................................................................................................................... 53
Drezner, D. (2022). How not to Sanction. International Affairs, 98(5), 1533–1552................................... 56
Hoye, J. M. (2024). OFAC, Famine, and the Sanctioning of Afghanistan- A Catastrophic Policy
Success......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Gonzalez-Ocantos, E., & Masullo, J. (2024). Aligning Interviewing with Process Tracing. Sociological
Methods & Research, 00491241241258229................................................................................................ 63
Costa, O., & Barbé, E. (2023). A moving target. EU actorness and the Russian invasion of Ukraine........65
Menzies, L. (2025). Elite Interviewing as an In-Betweener.........................................................................68
Dimitrova, A. L., Gürkan, S., & Koops, J. (2025). Stuck on the stairway of change: The EU’s enlargement
and security and defence policies post 2022................................................................................................ 70
Menjívar, C. (2014). Immigration Law Beyond Borders: Externalizing and Internalizing Border Controls
in an Era of Securitization. Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 10(1), 353–369...........................73
Cusumano, E. (2019). Migrant rescue as organized hypocrisy- EU maritime missions offshore Libya
between humanitarianism and border control.............................................................................................. 74
Maher, S. (2018). Out of West Africa- Human Smuggling as a Social Enterprise...................................... 79
, 3
Moreno‐Lax, V. (2018). The EU Humanitarian Border and the Securitization of Human Rights: The
‘Rescue‐Through‐Interdiction/Rescue‐Without‐Protection’ Paradigm.....................................................83
Brodkin, E. Z. (2017). The Ethnographic Turn in Political Science: Reflections on the State of the Art. PS:
Political Science & Politics, 50(1), 131–134. Cambridge Core...................................................................86
Clemens, M. A. (2022). Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline- The Last Half-Century of Global
Mobility........................................................................................................................................................ 88
Practice questions shown in class..............................................................................................................96
Quizlet + Extra links to practice............................................................................................................... 98
Midterm paper example............................................................................................................................ 99
Lecture Notes............................................................................................................................................ 108
, 4
Lecture 1
Popper, K. R. (1963). Science as Falsification. In Conjectures and Refutation (pp.
33–39). Routledge.
Popper's Core Philosophy: Conjecture and Refutation
● The common theme uniting Popper’s essays is that knowledge progresses by a method
of conjecture and refutation.
● This method involves proposing a hypothesis (a conjecture) and then subjecting it to
scrutiny by attempting to prove that it is false. If the hypothesis survives these tests, it is
provisionally accepted, but “its truth can never be known.”
Arguments
● Scientists begin not with observations, but with a problem or set of problems.
● Theories are considered pure conjectures, "free creations of our own minds", and the
result of "an almost poetic intuition".
● They are "self-made instruments of thought" and are not compelled by observations or
prior theories.
The Role of Observation and Demarcation
● The role is not in generating a theory but in testing it, criticising it, and trying to refute it.
● Observations can never verify theories because general statements (which theories
contain) cannot be logically inferred from any finite number of observation statements.
● Popper = rejects verificationism. Instead, he uses falsifiability (or testability) as the
criterion of demarcation to separate science from metaphysics.
Key principles of falsifiability and progress:
1. Irrefutability is not a virtue: Falsifiability admits of degrees (there’s no strict boundary
between science and metaphysics). Many scientific theories developed from myths which
were initially untestable, later gaining testable components.
2. Testability and Risk: Theories are "highly informative guesses" that, while not
verifiable, must be submitted to severe tests. Every genuine test is an attempt to disprove
or refute the theory.
3. Aiming for Truth: Popper compares truth to a mountain peak hidden by clouds: the
climber may never know when the peak has been found, but will know if they have not
reached it (i.e., if the theory is refuted).
4. Requirements for Progress: For progress to occur, theories must satisfy three criteria:
a. They should proceed from a simple, new, and powerful unifying idea.
b. They must have testable consequences beyond those they were originally
designed to explain.
, 5
c. They must pass some new and severe tests.
Verisimilitude (asked in exam)
● Popper also introduced the concept of verisimilitude (approximating the truth). Given two
theories, Tv1, and Tv2.
○ Tv2 = greater degree of verisimilitude if the class of true logical consequences
(truth-content) of Tv2 is greater than that of Tv1 (but not its false logical
consequences), or if Tv1's false logical consequences (falsity-content) is greater
than Tv2's (but not its truth-content).
Critiques of Popper's View
1. Limitations of the Conjecture/Refutation Model
a. The history of science does not always fit neatly into the proposing or testing of
theories. Scientific progress is often achieved through activities that are neither
proposing nor testing a hypothesis, such as:
2. Experimental Determination
a. Millikan's oil drop experiment aimed to make an exact determination of the value
of the elementary electrical charge, which was neither the proposing nor testing of
a pre-existing hypothesis regarding that specific value.
3. Constructing Analogies
a. Maxwell’s work to offer a "simplification and reduction of the results of previous
investigation" by elaborating a physical analogy (like the incompressible fluid
analogy for the electric field) was neither proposing nor testing a theory.
4. Other Activities
a. Reformulating hypotheses mathematically, introducing and defining new concepts
(like Gibbs' ensemble), redefining existing concepts (like Mach's mass), or
applying a theory to idealised systems (like Clausius applied thermodynamics to a
perfect gas) also contribute significantly to progress but do not necessarily
involve conjecturing or testing.
● Promoting scientific understanding is a sufficient condition for progress, which can be
achieved through these various activities, not just by leading to new conjectures or tests.
The Role of Observation in Theory Development
● Popper insists that the role of observation is solely or mainly critical (testing), Eg
(Conservation of Strangeness): Gell-Mann and Nishijima observed specific nuclear
reactions that failed to occur despite being permitted by known conservation laws.
● These experimental results were crucial in suggesting the existence of the principle of the
conservation of strangeness.
