Week 1, article The Hague fossil fuel advertising ban; a catalyst for global climate action.
-In 2025, The Hague implemented a ban on fossil fuel advertising (advertisements for petrol, diesel,
aviation, cruise ships, fossil energy contracts, and hybrid and combustion-engine cars) .
-Analysing this ban is of critical importance, as it serves as a potential model for broader climate
action and provides a key case study in disrupting the conventions that underpin high-carbon
economies.
-The introduction of this policy has ignited a central controversy over its effectiveness, sparking a
debate on whether it serves as a tangible tool for emission reduction or functions primarily as a
symbolic political gesture.
-There are 2 opposing views; the critique that is mere symbolic politics, and the argument for its
significant, long-term impact on consumption.
-The primary criticism of the ban is that it is a political statement with limited direct effect on
emissions -> its local jurisdiction is too narrow to meaningfully alter entrenched consumption habits,
making it more of an attention-grabbing gesture than a practical climate solution.
-Proponents argue that while immediate impacts may be limited due to carbon lock-ins (deeply
embedded patterns of production and consumption), the long-term potential for emissions reduction
is substantial if such bans are adapted at scale.
-A widespread prohibition on fossil fuel advertising could achieve several key long-term outcome:
It restrains the ability of companies to reinforce existing fossil-intensive norms, such as
frequent flying, and to form new high-carbon conventions.
It limits opportunities for greenwashing, where the industry improves its public image while
downplaying the negative impacts of its products.
It can gradually reduce demand for fossil fuel products and services, an effect most likely to
appear first among groups where consumption habits are less entrenched, such as children.
-Beyond its direct impacts, the strategic value of the Hague’s ban lies in its function as a powerful
symbolic signal designed to challenge norms and inspire wider change -> this symbolic power can lay
the groundwork for more substantial and widespread information.
-The ban serves 4 key symbolic functions:
Challenging moral legitimacy: It explicitly contests the taken-for-granted status and moral
acceptability of fossil fuel products, communicating that their promotion in the public sphere
is contrary to societal values.
Demonstrating government commitment: The policy signals a firm governmental
commitment to climate action, which can enhance public confidence in other climate
initiatives and inspire pro-environmental behaviour at the individual level.
Setting a global precedent: As a niche innovation, The Hague’s action provides a tangible legal
and political model for other cities and countries to follow, creating a potential ripple effect
worldwide.
Stimulating public scrutiny: The ban and the international attention it has received compel
legislators, citizens, and advertisers to critically reflect on the broader influence of fossil fuel
advertising.
-For a local policy to become a global catalyst, it must be perceived as both politically feasible and
publicly acceptable -> the fossil fuel advertising bans appear strong on both fronts.
-The Hague’s fossil fuel advertising ban shows that bold local action is possible even in challenging
and economic environments.
-Such bans are likely to have high public acceptability for several key reasons:
, They target the consumer information environment rather than directly regulating individual
behaviour.
They do not restrain a consumer’s freedom to purchase or use fossil fuel products.
They incur lower implementation costs for governments.
They have fewer implementation requirements compared to more complex policies like
carbon taxes.
-The Horizon Europe CAPABLE project found that public support for an EU-wide fossil fuel advertising
ban is almost twice as large as the opposition.
-The Hague’s fossil fuel ban is more than a local ordinance, it is a potent signal designed to challenge
entrenched global norms.
-While its immediate, direct impact on emissions may be limited, its primary value lies in its symbolic
power to stimulate broader change.
-The policy’s key strengths (low implementation costs and broad public acceptability) make it a
compelling and readily available opportunity for governments to take decisive climate action.
Terms
-Symbolic politics: A policy implemented move for its attention-grabbing potential and symbolic
message than for achieving its immediate, stated objectives.
-Carbon lock-ins: Deeply embedded patterns of production and consumption, as well as social norms
and conventions, that make it difficult to abandon high-carbon products and services.
-Greenwashing: The practice by the fossil fuel industry of using advertising to improve its image and
downplay the negative impacts of its products, which clouds consumer decisions.
-Niche innovation: A novel policy or practice, like The Hague’s ban, that can lay the groundwork for
broader societal transformations through incubation, diffusion, and favourable socio-political
conditions.
-Window of opportunity: A period during which conditions are favourable for a specific policy, like a
fossil fuel ad ban, to diffuse to similar locales and at larger scales of governance.
Article 2, how well does advertising work? Generalizations from Meta-analysis of brand advertising
elasticities.
-Advertising elasticity: The percentage increase in a brand’s sales or market share resulting from a
1% increase in its advertising.
-This article synthesizes decades of econometric research and offers new benchmarks and insights
that challenged long-held assumptions about advertising’s power to influence sales.
-The study’s most significant quantitative finding is the establishment of new, lower benchmarks for
advertising effectiveness, representing a substantial downward revision from the figures widely cited
since 1984. This suggests that, on average, the sales response to advertising is considerably smaller
than previously believed.
-Further analysis revealed that this decline is not simply a downward trend in consumer
responsiveness but is heavily influenced by shifts in research methodologies over time.
-Key factors in post-1980 studies has opposing effects on elasticity estimates:
Factors increasing predicted elasticity: The increased use of disaggregate panel data and a
greater focus on television advertising both tended to push the predicted mean elasticity
upward.
Factors decreasing predicted elasticity: However, these upward pressures were more than
offset by factors pushing elasticity down, including a significant underrepresentation of
, European studies (which show higher elasticity) and a shift away from yearly data (which also
tends to show higher elasticity) compared to pre-1980 research.
-Specific conditions that moderate advertising effectiveness:
Temporal and economic factors:
-A persistent negative time trend suggests consumers are becoming less responsive to
advertising over time, likely due to increased as clutter and competition.
-Contradicting conventional wisdom, advertising elasticity is not lower during recessions. In
fact, long-term elasticity was found to be significantly higher during these periods.
Product, market, and geographic factors:
-Elasticity is highest for durable goods, followed by pharmaceuticals and services. It is lowest
for low-involvement items like food and non-food products.
-Advertising is significantly more effective for products in the growth stage of their life cycle
compared to the mature stage.
-Elasticity is substantially higher in Europe compared to North America.
Data and measurement characteristics:
-Elasticity measured using Gross Rating Points (GRPs) is significantly higher than when
measured in monetary terms.
-Television advertising is associated with a higher short-term elasticity, while print advertising
shows a higher long-term elasticity, potentially because print information remains in memory
longer.
-Elasticities estimated from disaggregate consumer panel data are significantly higher than
those from aggregate firm-level data.
Model and specification factors:
-Omitting key variables like distribution from a model leads to a positively biased (artificially
higher) advertising elasticity.
-Failing to statistically account for endogeneity (the fact that advertising levels are a strategic
choice) tends to produce negatively biased (lower) estimates of elasticity.
-The academic findings translate into a set of actionable implications for marketing managers:
Advertising budgeting: The low average short-term elasticity of .12 suggests many firms may
be over-investing in advertising. This challenges managers to either reduce budgets or,
preferably, increase effectiveness through superior creative, targeting, and media placement.
Advertising through a recession: The finding that long-term effectiveness may increase during
a recession provides a data-backed argument against cutting ad spend. Maintaining or
increasing advertising during a downturn can be a powerful strategy for building market
share.
Conditions favouring advertising: Investment is likely to yield the highest returns for durable
goods and for products in the growth stage. For mature, non-durable goods, a shift in focus to
other marketing elements may be more effective.
Media allocation: Managers should consider using television for campaigns aimed at short-
term sales impact. For objectives centred on building brand equity and long-term effects,
print media appears to be a more effective vehicle.
-Key empirical generalizations:
The average short-term advertising elasticity is .12, and the long-term is .24, both
substantially lower than previously believed.
, Advertising elasticity shows a significant decline over time, even after accounting for
methodological changes.
Elasticity is not lower during recessions and may be higher in the long-term, arguing against
automatic budget cuts during downturns.
Effectiveness is higher for durable goods and products in the growth stage of the life cycle.
Elasticity is higher in Europe than in North America.
Television advertising is more effective in the short-run, while print is more effective in the
long-run.
Methodological choices, such as accounting for endogeneity and including key variables,
significantly impact elasticity estimates.
-Given that advertising’s general effectiveness is modest, understanding how restrictions on it can
specifically drive innovation is a vital next step.
Terms
-Advertising elasticity: The percentage increase in a brand’s sales or market share resulting from a 1%
increase in its advertising.
-Meta-analysis: A research method that synthesizes and analyses the results of numerous previous
studies to identify consistent patterns and empirical generalizations.
-Short-term advertising elasticity: The impact of advertising on sales within the current
measurement period (e.g., week, quarter, year).
-Long-term advertising elasticity: The percentage change in a brand’s current and future period sales
for a 1% change in the brand’s current advertising. Also referred to as the cumulative advertising
effect.
-Primary demand: The demand for an entire product category (e.g., total milk sales).
-Selective demand: The demand for a specific brand within a product category (e.g., a specific brand’s
sales).
-Gross Rating Points (GRPs): A measure of advertising weight, where on GRP represents reaching 1%
of a target audience with one exposure.
-Endogeneity: A statistical issue where an independent variable (like advertising) is correlated with
the error term, often because it is a strategic choice.
-Carryover effect: The persistent impact of advertising on sales in subsequent periods, often captured
statistically by including a lagged dependent variable.
-Econometric model: A statistical model based on economic theory used to analyse market data and
estimate the relationship between marketing activities and sales outcomes.
Article the impact of advertising restrictions on sustainable innovation
-This article examines the strategic potential of repurposing advertising restrictions (a tool from
public health) for environmental policy.
-These regulations can move beyond merely discouraging harmful consumption to actively
stimulating innovation in sustainable alternatives.
-The analysis is guided be 2 primary research questions:
Can banning adverts for harmful products induce innovation in alternative benign products?
Can such bans lead to increased advertising for these benign alternatives?
-The analysis views advertising bans through the lends of socio-technical transitions, a framework
that explains how advertising both reinforces the status quo and, when restricted can catalyse
change.
-Advertising does not only sell products, it also sells ideas about how the world works. Regime
-In 2025, The Hague implemented a ban on fossil fuel advertising (advertisements for petrol, diesel,
aviation, cruise ships, fossil energy contracts, and hybrid and combustion-engine cars) .
-Analysing this ban is of critical importance, as it serves as a potential model for broader climate
action and provides a key case study in disrupting the conventions that underpin high-carbon
economies.
-The introduction of this policy has ignited a central controversy over its effectiveness, sparking a
debate on whether it serves as a tangible tool for emission reduction or functions primarily as a
symbolic political gesture.
-There are 2 opposing views; the critique that is mere symbolic politics, and the argument for its
significant, long-term impact on consumption.
-The primary criticism of the ban is that it is a political statement with limited direct effect on
emissions -> its local jurisdiction is too narrow to meaningfully alter entrenched consumption habits,
making it more of an attention-grabbing gesture than a practical climate solution.
-Proponents argue that while immediate impacts may be limited due to carbon lock-ins (deeply
embedded patterns of production and consumption), the long-term potential for emissions reduction
is substantial if such bans are adapted at scale.
-A widespread prohibition on fossil fuel advertising could achieve several key long-term outcome:
It restrains the ability of companies to reinforce existing fossil-intensive norms, such as
frequent flying, and to form new high-carbon conventions.
It limits opportunities for greenwashing, where the industry improves its public image while
downplaying the negative impacts of its products.
It can gradually reduce demand for fossil fuel products and services, an effect most likely to
appear first among groups where consumption habits are less entrenched, such as children.
-Beyond its direct impacts, the strategic value of the Hague’s ban lies in its function as a powerful
symbolic signal designed to challenge norms and inspire wider change -> this symbolic power can lay
the groundwork for more substantial and widespread information.
-The ban serves 4 key symbolic functions:
Challenging moral legitimacy: It explicitly contests the taken-for-granted status and moral
acceptability of fossil fuel products, communicating that their promotion in the public sphere
is contrary to societal values.
Demonstrating government commitment: The policy signals a firm governmental
commitment to climate action, which can enhance public confidence in other climate
initiatives and inspire pro-environmental behaviour at the individual level.
Setting a global precedent: As a niche innovation, The Hague’s action provides a tangible legal
and political model for other cities and countries to follow, creating a potential ripple effect
worldwide.
Stimulating public scrutiny: The ban and the international attention it has received compel
legislators, citizens, and advertisers to critically reflect on the broader influence of fossil fuel
advertising.
-For a local policy to become a global catalyst, it must be perceived as both politically feasible and
publicly acceptable -> the fossil fuel advertising bans appear strong on both fronts.
-The Hague’s fossil fuel advertising ban shows that bold local action is possible even in challenging
and economic environments.
-Such bans are likely to have high public acceptability for several key reasons:
, They target the consumer information environment rather than directly regulating individual
behaviour.
They do not restrain a consumer’s freedom to purchase or use fossil fuel products.
They incur lower implementation costs for governments.
They have fewer implementation requirements compared to more complex policies like
carbon taxes.
-The Horizon Europe CAPABLE project found that public support for an EU-wide fossil fuel advertising
ban is almost twice as large as the opposition.
-The Hague’s fossil fuel ban is more than a local ordinance, it is a potent signal designed to challenge
entrenched global norms.
-While its immediate, direct impact on emissions may be limited, its primary value lies in its symbolic
power to stimulate broader change.
-The policy’s key strengths (low implementation costs and broad public acceptability) make it a
compelling and readily available opportunity for governments to take decisive climate action.
Terms
-Symbolic politics: A policy implemented move for its attention-grabbing potential and symbolic
message than for achieving its immediate, stated objectives.
-Carbon lock-ins: Deeply embedded patterns of production and consumption, as well as social norms
and conventions, that make it difficult to abandon high-carbon products and services.
-Greenwashing: The practice by the fossil fuel industry of using advertising to improve its image and
downplay the negative impacts of its products, which clouds consumer decisions.
-Niche innovation: A novel policy or practice, like The Hague’s ban, that can lay the groundwork for
broader societal transformations through incubation, diffusion, and favourable socio-political
conditions.
-Window of opportunity: A period during which conditions are favourable for a specific policy, like a
fossil fuel ad ban, to diffuse to similar locales and at larger scales of governance.
Article 2, how well does advertising work? Generalizations from Meta-analysis of brand advertising
elasticities.
-Advertising elasticity: The percentage increase in a brand’s sales or market share resulting from a
1% increase in its advertising.
-This article synthesizes decades of econometric research and offers new benchmarks and insights
that challenged long-held assumptions about advertising’s power to influence sales.
-The study’s most significant quantitative finding is the establishment of new, lower benchmarks for
advertising effectiveness, representing a substantial downward revision from the figures widely cited
since 1984. This suggests that, on average, the sales response to advertising is considerably smaller
than previously believed.
-Further analysis revealed that this decline is not simply a downward trend in consumer
responsiveness but is heavily influenced by shifts in research methodologies over time.
-Key factors in post-1980 studies has opposing effects on elasticity estimates:
Factors increasing predicted elasticity: The increased use of disaggregate panel data and a
greater focus on television advertising both tended to push the predicted mean elasticity
upward.
Factors decreasing predicted elasticity: However, these upward pressures were more than
offset by factors pushing elasticity down, including a significant underrepresentation of
, European studies (which show higher elasticity) and a shift away from yearly data (which also
tends to show higher elasticity) compared to pre-1980 research.
-Specific conditions that moderate advertising effectiveness:
Temporal and economic factors:
-A persistent negative time trend suggests consumers are becoming less responsive to
advertising over time, likely due to increased as clutter and competition.
-Contradicting conventional wisdom, advertising elasticity is not lower during recessions. In
fact, long-term elasticity was found to be significantly higher during these periods.
Product, market, and geographic factors:
-Elasticity is highest for durable goods, followed by pharmaceuticals and services. It is lowest
for low-involvement items like food and non-food products.
-Advertising is significantly more effective for products in the growth stage of their life cycle
compared to the mature stage.
-Elasticity is substantially higher in Europe compared to North America.
Data and measurement characteristics:
-Elasticity measured using Gross Rating Points (GRPs) is significantly higher than when
measured in monetary terms.
-Television advertising is associated with a higher short-term elasticity, while print advertising
shows a higher long-term elasticity, potentially because print information remains in memory
longer.
-Elasticities estimated from disaggregate consumer panel data are significantly higher than
those from aggregate firm-level data.
Model and specification factors:
-Omitting key variables like distribution from a model leads to a positively biased (artificially
higher) advertising elasticity.
-Failing to statistically account for endogeneity (the fact that advertising levels are a strategic
choice) tends to produce negatively biased (lower) estimates of elasticity.
-The academic findings translate into a set of actionable implications for marketing managers:
Advertising budgeting: The low average short-term elasticity of .12 suggests many firms may
be over-investing in advertising. This challenges managers to either reduce budgets or,
preferably, increase effectiveness through superior creative, targeting, and media placement.
Advertising through a recession: The finding that long-term effectiveness may increase during
a recession provides a data-backed argument against cutting ad spend. Maintaining or
increasing advertising during a downturn can be a powerful strategy for building market
share.
Conditions favouring advertising: Investment is likely to yield the highest returns for durable
goods and for products in the growth stage. For mature, non-durable goods, a shift in focus to
other marketing elements may be more effective.
Media allocation: Managers should consider using television for campaigns aimed at short-
term sales impact. For objectives centred on building brand equity and long-term effects,
print media appears to be a more effective vehicle.
-Key empirical generalizations:
The average short-term advertising elasticity is .12, and the long-term is .24, both
substantially lower than previously believed.
, Advertising elasticity shows a significant decline over time, even after accounting for
methodological changes.
Elasticity is not lower during recessions and may be higher in the long-term, arguing against
automatic budget cuts during downturns.
Effectiveness is higher for durable goods and products in the growth stage of the life cycle.
Elasticity is higher in Europe than in North America.
Television advertising is more effective in the short-run, while print is more effective in the
long-run.
Methodological choices, such as accounting for endogeneity and including key variables,
significantly impact elasticity estimates.
-Given that advertising’s general effectiveness is modest, understanding how restrictions on it can
specifically drive innovation is a vital next step.
Terms
-Advertising elasticity: The percentage increase in a brand’s sales or market share resulting from a 1%
increase in its advertising.
-Meta-analysis: A research method that synthesizes and analyses the results of numerous previous
studies to identify consistent patterns and empirical generalizations.
-Short-term advertising elasticity: The impact of advertising on sales within the current
measurement period (e.g., week, quarter, year).
-Long-term advertising elasticity: The percentage change in a brand’s current and future period sales
for a 1% change in the brand’s current advertising. Also referred to as the cumulative advertising
effect.
-Primary demand: The demand for an entire product category (e.g., total milk sales).
-Selective demand: The demand for a specific brand within a product category (e.g., a specific brand’s
sales).
-Gross Rating Points (GRPs): A measure of advertising weight, where on GRP represents reaching 1%
of a target audience with one exposure.
-Endogeneity: A statistical issue where an independent variable (like advertising) is correlated with
the error term, often because it is a strategic choice.
-Carryover effect: The persistent impact of advertising on sales in subsequent periods, often captured
statistically by including a lagged dependent variable.
-Econometric model: A statistical model based on economic theory used to analyse market data and
estimate the relationship between marketing activities and sales outcomes.
Article the impact of advertising restrictions on sustainable innovation
-This article examines the strategic potential of repurposing advertising restrictions (a tool from
public health) for environmental policy.
-These regulations can move beyond merely discouraging harmful consumption to actively
stimulating innovation in sustainable alternatives.
-The analysis is guided be 2 primary research questions:
Can banning adverts for harmful products induce innovation in alternative benign products?
Can such bans lead to increased advertising for these benign alternatives?
-The analysis views advertising bans through the lends of socio-technical transitions, a framework
that explains how advertising both reinforces the status quo and, when restricted can catalyse
change.
-Advertising does not only sell products, it also sells ideas about how the world works. Regime
